Tesla Master Plan Part two

Electric trucks and buses, full autopilot, earnings for Tesla car owners

Ilon Musk was never seen in excessive modesty and lack of ambition. For this he is loved. Ten years ago, the entrepreneur published a “secret” master plan .

At that time, Tesla Motors was just preparing to release its first model, the Tesla Roadster sports car, but Ilon Musk spoke of his intention to release a large range of models, including affordable family cars. This is necessary to achieve the “comprehensive goal” of Tesla Motors, which is the company's founding goal - to help in the transition of the global economy from fossil fuel to solar energy .
')
Such an ambitious, revolutionary goal could not fail to win over with its idealism and scale. Over the past ten years, everyone was convinced that Ilon Musk was not joking. And now he has published the second part of his grand master plan.

Ilon Musk writes that the first master-plan of a decade-old prescription is close to completion. Tesla Motors has really managed to launch a range of electric vehicles. Very soon, an inexpensive mass-produced Tesla Model 3 will appear on the market, for which more than 400,000 pre-orders have already been accepted. The big premiere of Model 3 will take place at the end of 2016 .


Tesla Model 3

In a simplified form, the plan of Ilona Mask consisted of several stages:

1. Make an electric car that is sure to be expensive and not intended for large-scale mass production.
   
   
2. Use money from point 1 to develop a more popular electric car at a lower price.
   
   
3. Use the money from paragraph 2 to create an affordable mass vehicle, this is the Tesla Model 3.
   
   Note : it would be possible to start implementing the plan immediately from the 2nd or 3rd paragraph, but Ilon Musk explains that the chances of success were small. Therefore, he decided to invest only his own money earned on PayPal shares and not to attract foreign investment to start. Automotive business is a risky business. Ilon Musk aptly remarked that in the entire history of the United States there were only two automotive startups that did not go bankrupt . “To establish a car company is idiocy, and an electric car company is idiocy in the square,” the entrepreneur self-critically admits.
   
   AND…
   
   
4. Provide access to solar energy.

Few believe in the feasibility of such a plan ten years ago. But now the cost of solar energy has become equal to the cost of electricity from burning coal and gas. And continues to decline rapidly .

The entrepreneur says that the first master plan was written specifically to clarify his position and defend himself against the accusations that Tesla produces expensive sports cars for rich people, because there are so many such sports cars on the market. He explained that this is just the first step towards a big important goal.

The second part of the master plan is also written as a kind of protection. Ilon Musk explains that the unification of Tesla and SolarCity companies is not necessary for the transfer of debt obligations and collateral coverage, which its detractors accuse of, namely to achieve fundamental long-term goals.

SolarCity installs solar panels on the roofs of private houses. It is rapidly developing its business, although it is experiencing certain financial difficulties. Recently, Ilon Musk proposed to combine Tesla and SolarCity .

All actions of Tesla Motors should be viewed against the background of the overall picture and the main mission of the company, and not on the basis of short-term profits, says Musk. In this sense, the past ten years have been quite successful. Now the future of solar energy and electric vehicles seems quite real and achievable. This is a matter that concerns everyone. Actually, humanity has no other way out: “By definition, we must eventually switch to renewable energy or we will run out of fossil fuels and civilization will collapse,” Ilon Musk reasonably thinks. - With this in mind, you must in any case get rid of fossil fuels. Almost all scientists agree that a sharp increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and oceans is insane, so the sooner we achieve sustainable development, the better. ”

Combining Tesla and SolarCity with building a vertically integrated company fully fits into Tesla's master plan and comprehensive goal. Now Ilon Musk has identified several key goals for the near future.

Integration of generation and storage of energy

This is what Tesla and SolarCity need for. “That these companies are separated from each other, given the same origin and pursuit of the same comprehensive goal of switching to renewable energy - this is largely a historical accident,” writes Musk.

Recall that the company SolarCity was founded in 2006 by the brothers Peter and Lyndon Riva, who implemented the idea of ​​their cousin Ilon Mask. Ilon himself became the head of the company and helped with the launch of the project.

Shareholders must approve the merger transaction. Ilon Musk himself, the main shareholder, withdrew from voting, as did the chairman of the board of directors of both companies, Antonio Gracias.

Now Tesla Motors has launched a subsidiary firm Tesla Energy, which offers household lithium-ion batteries Powerwall and Powerpack to power homes and businesses from renewable energy sources. So the aforementioned “historical coincidence” looks especially ridiculous.

For ten years, SolarCity has maintained leadership in the installation of solar panels in California, ranking second in the number of installations in the United States.

If the shareholders approve the deal, then after the merger, the state of the combined company will be 30,000 people, and all products will be united under a single Tesla brand. It will include electric cars, batteries and solar panels for the consumer market.

Expansion of business to cover the main forms of road transport

Tesla Motors currently operates in two relatively small markets for premium sedans and electric SUVs. With the release of the Model 3, the future compact SUV and the new pickup, Tesla plans to cover all major sectors of the consumer market.

To achieve success, mass production needs to be scaled as quickly as possible, writes Ilon Musk. He says that the real product is not the Model 3 car, but the factory producing these cars.

Ideally, this factory is like a machine that produces cars - with the iterative release of cars of all the best quality. The car for the production of cars Model 3 can be considered as version 0.5, and version 1.0 will be formed by about 2018. "The first analysis of the principles of automotive production physics indicates that an improvement of about 5-10 times is possible with version 3.0 on a roughly two-year production cycle," the entrepreneur and inventor explained in a flattering manner. Commentators are now discussing how to understand these words in light of the plans for mass production of Tesla Model 3 and the possible need for additional funding.

Having covered all sectors of the consumer market, what will Tesla continue to do?

Ilon Musk answers this question directly. There are two more types of electric transport: these are heavy vehicles and urban passenger transport. Both of these types of transport are in early development by Tesla engineers and should be introduced next year.

Electric truck

Apparently, the Tesla electric saddle truck will be called Tesla Semi. This truck should significantly reduce the cost of transportation, it will be safer and more enjoyable to drive.

As an example, you can look at the Nikola One truck tractor from Nikola One . The 2000 hp heavy load is equipped with a set of 32,000 individual lithium-ion batteries with an aggregate capacity of 320 kWh. Pre-orders are now accepted for it, and the official presentation of Nikola One is scheduled for December 2, 2016.

At full charge of batteries with an additional cylinder of natural gas, the tractor can travel 1,200 miles (1,931 km), this is the declared range from a single charge.


Nikola One

Electric bus

As for buses, taking into account the increased autonomy (see below), it makes sense to reduce the size of buses that can ply the route more often. The driver will be more likely to "control the flight."

In such buses you do not need to do several entrances / exits, because public transport stops with crowds of passengers will be a thing of the past. Such stops with the bus call buttons will remain only for those who do not have a smartphone. Autonomous bus will pick up passengers along the route. The absence of several water / exits allows to increase the number of seats in the cabin, and the movement of the autopilot will unload traffic jams in the city, which are often created by slow and heavy public transport.

The Tesla bus project provides a place for wheelchair-bound passengers and passengers with bicycles.

Autopilot

As technology develops, all Tesla cars will receive the function of full automatic piloting, as well as full fault tolerance.

Full fault tolerance means that the autopilot will be able to safely move on if any part of the vehicle is broken.

Ilon Musk emphasizes that the most difficult thing in this task is software development. All the necessary equipment already, in principle, is available: cameras, sonars, radars and computers of sufficient power.

To allow such autopilot on public roads, regulators will probably require extensive testing from approximately 10 billion kilometers in test mode. At the moment, Tesla autopilots pass a little more than 5 million km per day.

Ilon Mask also explained why the company is already experiencing an unfinished autopilot in real conditions. The answer is simple: even in its current state, the autopilot improves safety on the road and reduces the risk of an accident, as can be clearly seen from the mortality statistics . The autopilot’s “beta” is now rather symbolic. It will be charged when the safety of the autopilot is 10 times greater than the safety of driving in manual mode (now the safety is about 2 times higher, based on the mortality statistics of the National Transportation Safety Management of the USA).

Sharing

As soon as the regulators approve the use of autopilot, drivers will have free time to do personal things in the car: read books, sleep or play computer games. In this case, it will be very convenient to add your car to the pool of sharing Tesla machines (like Uber Pool). The nearest car is called by pressing a button in the mobile application.

Why does the owner need it? Mostly for the money. The machine will generate profits for its owner, while he is doing his own business or is working, or if he went on vacation. According to the calculations of Ilona Mask, this way the car will be able to easily cover the monthly installment for its purchase, and will quickly pay for itself in full. If a person went on vacation, then, in principle, may not return: the car will generate enough money for him to live in a not very expensive corner of the world.

In a fundamental sense, car sharing is important for the entire economy, because at the moment cars are used only 5-10% of their time, and in the rest of the hours they stand idle.

In cities where demand for taxis exceeds supply, Tesla intends to open its own unmanned vehicle fleets.

Master Plan Part Two

Thus, the second part of the Tesla master plan is as follows:

• Developing magnificent solar roofs for buildings with integrated energy storage batteries.
  
  
• Expansion of the car product line to all major market segments.
  
  
• Develop autopilot, which is 10 times safer than manual driving, using mass road tests.
  
  
• Opening a program of earnings for Tesla owners at a time when they do not use their cars.