EURO 2016. Neuroprojections from IT giants
If for football lovers the European Championship is the biggest sporting event of the year, then for the largest IT corporations and all those who meticulously monitor everything happening in the world of neural networks and Big Data is a unique chance to evaluate the current capabilities of AI in its alternative field. About how likely it is that in the near future, intellectual oracles will deprive bookmakers from work and income, taking into account current and earlier forecasts, in our news publication.
Cortana Intelligence Suit
Microsoft announced its participation in the “marathon of electronic forecasts”. The preliminary opinion of the company on the results of each mast will be formed using the cloud service of advanced analytics and machine learning Cortana Intelligence Suite. There is already a preliminary forecast, according to which, with a probability of 66%, the national teams of Germany and Spain will qualify for the championship final, and in the final match, the German national team will win. We have to admit a very successful start of the intellectual race: on the account of the electronic oracle Cortana there is already one prediction that came true: in the first match of Euro 2016, as the service predicted, France overcame the Romania national team with a one-goal advantage (the score of the match was 2: 1).
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When forecasting the result, Cortana Intelligence Suite processes statistical information about teams, games held earlier, the performance of each member of the rival teams, statistics of injuries suffered, as well as an array of information gathered from news portals, search queries, and subjective opinions reflected in social networking messages. . Information “fed” to the service is updated as it is received, which allows analytical algorithms to be guided by the most recent and relevant data.
The status of a sports oracle for Microsoft is not new. The company carried out its first tests with the voice assistant Cortana, built into the devices based on Windows Phone, even at the World Cup in 2014. I must say, the results shown by the AI ​​after the end of the championship were seriously puzzled by the leading bookmakers: the correct result Cortana predicted in 15 games out of 16! Moreover, at the start of the 2014 championship, the service correctly predicted the winner - the German national team.
Interestingly, in addition to the data then fed to the service by the Bing search system in the form of data on the history of victories and defeats, the climatic factor, the proximity of the country participating in the match to the venue, etc., Cortana also took into account the bookmaking rates of leading companies around the world, played a significant role in assessing the accuracy of prediction.
Google
I wanted to test the IQ of my neural network in the 2014 championship and another IT giant - Google corporation. Then her predictions turned out to be somewhat less accurate than the prophecies of Microsoft: the final point in the dispute whose neuromyc more accurately, smarter and more perfect the match was set by France: Germany, Germany’s victory in which Cortana accurately predicted. Then in the press center of Google they were joking, quoting an English football player Gary Lineker: “Football is a simple game. 22 people kick the ball for 90 minutes, but in the end, Germany still wins. ” From the point of view of experts directly related to the development of Google's neuroservice, the cause of conditional defeat in a contest with Cortana is not so much in the imperfection of the algorithm, but in the limited amount of data available: Google Cloud took into account only the in-game moments of previous matches of France and Germany.
The Internet giant did not want to present an updated version of superintelligence for the Euro 2016 championship, but left Google's followers the opportunity to trust Henry's sleepy rooster predictions in tandem with TheGoogleApp app on Google UK's Twitter page .
According to the results of the match Russia: England, ended in a draw, old Arnie has already managed to make a blunder, because he predicted the victory of the Russian team. Although, given the fact that the Russian fans put the decisive point in the confrontation, it is possible that the colorful rooster is not so mistaken.
Yahoo!
It is interesting, but another IT giant, Yahoo!, Also sets itself to win the current German national team championship. The analytical service of the company based its forecast on the basis of the data set of the sports service and the Tumblr blog platform. The forecast, noted at Yahoo !, was compiled from an analysis of more than 20 billion messages, selected by the hashtags #football, #soccer, #BongDa, # Euro2016 and #UEFA. out of 24 million blogs from January 1 to May 31, 2016.
For the next stage of processing, 1.8 million relevant messages were selected with reference to teams and players. Then, using Opta Data ( Opta Sports ) technology, detailed match statistics for the last four years were analyzed for all participating teams in the current tournament. Further, using the available tournament grid data, Yahoo! calculated the average number of goals scored and missed by teams for the previous four years, the number of references to teams and players associated with Euro 2016 in Tumblr, and took into account the standard deviations.
If the calculation is Yahoo! confirmed, according to the forecast, the German national team will again win the final match of the European Championship.
NeuroBayes Michael Fyndt
While AI created in the laboratories of leading Internet corporations with surprising "unanimity" predicts Germany's victory, the brainchild of CERN (European Council of Nuclear Research) analyst Michael Findt - a neural network running the NeuroBayes algorithm, has its own opinion on this . NeuroBayes, originally created for analyzing the Big Data of the Large Hadron Collider in the process of studying and calculating collisions of charged particles, sees the French team in the final with a 34% probability.
For the analysis, NeuroBayes got at its disposal data on the results of international matches already played by the teams in the current main squad. Evaluating the chances for each team to win in Euro 2016, the neural network produced 94 billion possible results. This entire amount of data unimaginable for our understanding was ordered by the Monte Carlo random variable simulation method. As a result, a forecast was issued: France and Spain will meet in the final, and France will be the favorite of the match.
Bisnode
A version of the development of events at various stages and at the finish of the European Championship was voiced by the Swedish analytical company Bisnode , which is also directly related to Big Data analytics. As a material for analysis, information about historical matches, victories and defeats of teams, individual achievements of players was uploaded to the Bisnode neural network. The output was formed very detailed grid with the results of the projected matches.
According to Bisnode, the probability with which the Spanish national team will win in the final match was 21%. Almost the same chance - 20.2% of the neural network left the England team.
Well, intrigue around “neuro predictions” is taking place, and it is quite possible that passions around divinations issued by electronic oracles will open a new round in the development of bookmaker offices of the future, where, in addition to betting on the results of football teams matches, you can put on Cortana or, for example on NeuroBayes!
That's all, with you there was a simple service for choosing sophisticated Dronk.Ru equipment. Do not forget to subscribe to our blog , there will be many more interesting ...
Cortana Intelligence Suit
Microsoft announced its participation in the “marathon of electronic forecasts”. The preliminary opinion of the company on the results of each mast will be formed using the cloud service of advanced analytics and machine learning Cortana Intelligence Suite. There is already a preliminary forecast, according to which, with a probability of 66%, the national teams of Germany and Spain will qualify for the championship final, and in the final match, the German national team will win. We have to admit a very successful start of the intellectual race: on the account of the electronic oracle Cortana there is already one prediction that came true: in the first match of Euro 2016, as the service predicted, France overcame the Romania national team with a one-goal advantage (the score of the match was 2: 1).
')
When forecasting the result, Cortana Intelligence Suite processes statistical information about teams, games held earlier, the performance of each member of the rival teams, statistics of injuries suffered, as well as an array of information gathered from news portals, search queries, and subjective opinions reflected in social networking messages. . Information “fed” to the service is updated as it is received, which allows analytical algorithms to be guided by the most recent and relevant data.
The status of a sports oracle for Microsoft is not new. The company carried out its first tests with the voice assistant Cortana, built into the devices based on Windows Phone, even at the World Cup in 2014. I must say, the results shown by the AI ​​after the end of the championship were seriously puzzled by the leading bookmakers: the correct result Cortana predicted in 15 games out of 16! Moreover, at the start of the 2014 championship, the service correctly predicted the winner - the German national team.
Interestingly, in addition to the data then fed to the service by the Bing search system in the form of data on the history of victories and defeats, the climatic factor, the proximity of the country participating in the match to the venue, etc., Cortana also took into account the bookmaking rates of leading companies around the world, played a significant role in assessing the accuracy of prediction.
I wanted to test the IQ of my neural network in the 2014 championship and another IT giant - Google corporation. Then her predictions turned out to be somewhat less accurate than the prophecies of Microsoft: the final point in the dispute whose neuromyc more accurately, smarter and more perfect the match was set by France: Germany, Germany’s victory in which Cortana accurately predicted. Then in the press center of Google they were joking, quoting an English football player Gary Lineker: “Football is a simple game. 22 people kick the ball for 90 minutes, but in the end, Germany still wins. ” From the point of view of experts directly related to the development of Google's neuroservice, the cause of conditional defeat in a contest with Cortana is not so much in the imperfection of the algorithm, but in the limited amount of data available: Google Cloud took into account only the in-game moments of previous matches of France and Germany.
The Internet giant did not want to present an updated version of superintelligence for the Euro 2016 championship, but left Google's followers the opportunity to trust Henry's sleepy rooster predictions in tandem with TheGoogleApp app on Google UK's Twitter page .
According to the results of the match Russia: England, ended in a draw, old Arnie has already managed to make a blunder, because he predicted the victory of the Russian team. Although, given the fact that the Russian fans put the decisive point in the confrontation, it is possible that the colorful rooster is not so mistaken.
Yahoo!
It is interesting, but another IT giant, Yahoo!, Also sets itself to win the current German national team championship. The analytical service of the company based its forecast on the basis of the data set of the sports service and the Tumblr blog platform. The forecast, noted at Yahoo !, was compiled from an analysis of more than 20 billion messages, selected by the hashtags #football, #soccer, #BongDa, # Euro2016 and #UEFA. out of 24 million blogs from January 1 to May 31, 2016.
For the next stage of processing, 1.8 million relevant messages were selected with reference to teams and players. Then, using Opta Data ( Opta Sports ) technology, detailed match statistics for the last four years were analyzed for all participating teams in the current tournament. Further, using the available tournament grid data, Yahoo! calculated the average number of goals scored and missed by teams for the previous four years, the number of references to teams and players associated with Euro 2016 in Tumblr, and took into account the standard deviations.
If the calculation is Yahoo! confirmed, according to the forecast, the German national team will again win the final match of the European Championship.
NeuroBayes Michael Fyndt
While AI created in the laboratories of leading Internet corporations with surprising "unanimity" predicts Germany's victory, the brainchild of CERN (European Council of Nuclear Research) analyst Michael Findt - a neural network running the NeuroBayes algorithm, has its own opinion on this . NeuroBayes, originally created for analyzing the Big Data of the Large Hadron Collider in the process of studying and calculating collisions of charged particles, sees the French team in the final with a 34% probability.
For the analysis, NeuroBayes got at its disposal data on the results of international matches already played by the teams in the current main squad. Evaluating the chances for each team to win in Euro 2016, the neural network produced 94 billion possible results. This entire amount of data unimaginable for our understanding was ordered by the Monte Carlo random variable simulation method. As a result, a forecast was issued: France and Spain will meet in the final, and France will be the favorite of the match.
Bisnode
A version of the development of events at various stages and at the finish of the European Championship was voiced by the Swedish analytical company Bisnode , which is also directly related to Big Data analytics. As a material for analysis, information about historical matches, victories and defeats of teams, individual achievements of players was uploaded to the Bisnode neural network. The output was formed very detailed grid with the results of the projected matches.
According to Bisnode, the probability with which the Spanish national team will win in the final match was 21%. Almost the same chance - 20.2% of the neural network left the England team.
Well, intrigue around “neuro predictions” is taking place, and it is quite possible that passions around divinations issued by electronic oracles will open a new round in the development of bookmaker offices of the future, where, in addition to betting on the results of football teams matches, you can put on Cortana or, for example on NeuroBayes!
That's all, with you there was a simple service for choosing sophisticated Dronk.Ru equipment. Do not forget to subscribe to our blog , there will be many more interesting ...
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Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/394971/
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