International Energy Agency: electric car batteries are getting cheaper fast

The leader in the global market will be Tesla

The official mission of Tesla Motors is to accelerate the transition of the world to clean electric vehicles. The main reason why electric cars still cost more than petrol cars is the high cost of lithium-ion batteries. This is the most important thing that so far inhibits the mass distribution of electric cars.

Nevertheless, the mission of Tesla Motors is gradually being realized. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency, sales of electric vehicles are growing rapidly. In 2015, more than 550,000 units (+ 70%) were sold worldwide, so that the total number of electric vehicles on the roads increased to 1.25 million.
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The most interesting thing happens with batteries. Since 2008, the cost of batteries has dropped four times, and the energy density has increased five times. Tesla promises that after the launch of Gigafabrika prices will fall sharply.

The fact that the world fleet of electric cars exceeded one million units is a symbolic achievement. The report says that this success was achieved thanks to the efforts of commercial companies and government programs for the benefit of clean cars.

There are some more interesting facts in the report. For example, China is the leader in the number of sold electric vehicles, in the second place is the United States, but in terms of the share of electric vehicles in the car market, Norway is ahead (23%), followed by the Netherlands (almost 10%).


^{Source: International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2016}

The Chinese made a sharp jump in 2015.


^{Source: International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2016}

In addition to Norway and the Netherlands, a market barrier of 1% of electric vehicles was taken in another five countries: Sweden, Denmark, France, China and the UK.

By the way, just a few days ago, Norway announced plans to fully switch to electric transport by 2025 . It became known that the four largest political parties in the country reached an agreement in principle on the need to ban sales of vehicles using diesel and gasoline engines. The Norwegian government has begun to draft a bill. If the bill passes through parliament, sales of new gasoline cars will probably be banned or taxed.

Ilon Musk received the news from Norway with admiration: “What an amazingly cool country!”, He wrote on Twitter .


In the case of Norway, the piquancy of the situation is that this country is one of the world's main exporters of oil, precisely because of oil, it receives a significant part of the national budget, like Russia. Probably, the Norwegian authorities believe that switching to electric vehicles will not greatly affect the export of oil, since hydrocarbons have many other industrial applications.

The authors of the study of the International Energy Agency predict a bright future for environmentally friendly electric-powered transport, and especially Tesla Motors. In the coming years, experts expect further price reductions and improved technical characteristics of automotive batteries: “Technological progress, scientific and technological research and the transition to mass production led to a rapid fall in prices and productivity improvements in the last decade and promise to continue a gradual decline in prices in the near future. The cost of the battery for hybrid electric vehicles PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle), according to the US Department of Energy, decreased from $ 1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2008 to $ 268 per kilowatt-hour in 2015, which corresponds to a 73% reduction in price ".


^{Source: International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2016}

The international energy agency calls Tesla Motors the main reason for reducing the cost of batteries for electric vehicles and reducing them: “Some original equipment manufacturers announced even more ambitious price points for electric vehicles BEV (battery electric vehicle): General Motors said that the cost of batteries for The 2016 Chevrolet Bolt will fall to $ 145 / kWh by October 2015, and she hopes to reduce it to $ 100 / kWh by 2022. Electric car maker Tesla is set to reach $ 100 / kWh by 2020. "

“Improving the cost of batteries and energy density allows manufacturers to claim a power reserve from a single charge that has never been seen before. For example, in March 2016, Tesla Motors began accepting orders for a new Model 3, with a minimum range of 350 kilometers. The first Model 3 cars should be delivered to customers in 2017. "

Most recently, Tesla CTO Jeffrey Brian Strobel (JB Straubel) hinted at price reductions and battery technology innovations at Tesla Giga Factory (Gigafactory), which will begin work on July 29, 2016 . Strobel said that "much better batteries are possible" thanks to "innovations in chemistry and materials science." He continued: "We are seeing improvements in productivity, not just price reductions." And the recent news that Tesla has invited to work one of the world's leading scientists, who conducts research on lithium-ion batteries, confirms the words of Tesla's technical director.

According to the official biography , Jeff Dahn (Jeff Dahn) is considered "one of the leading developers of lithium-ion battery technology ... the author of more than 500 scientific articles and the co-inventor of 58 inventions for which patents have been granted or applications have been submitted."


^{Jeff Dan at the Tesla Model S. Automobile Photo: Dalhousie University}

It is said that when Jeff Dan found out about the Tesla Giga Factory, he immediately said that he wanted to work there. In April 2016, by the way, Jeff Dan was awarded the Governor General's Innovation Awards (GGIA) - Canada’s state award for scientists and inventors for his “contribution to the work of increasing the capacity of lithium-ion batteries.”

In the press comments about the award, Dan said that he is now working on the technology of lithium-ion batteries that can work for more than 30 years. This is especially important for medical implants, so that they function until the end of the patient's life without the need for a replacement. But for cars, this technology will not be superfluous.

Obviously, the International Energy Agency sees Tesla Motors as the world leader in this field. And judging by the number of pre-orders for the Model 3 ( more than 400,000 ), the buyers also agree that Tesla will certainly take its place at the forefront of the revolution in the automotive market.