Due to global warming, parts of the Middle East and North Africa will become uninhabitable

In certain parts of North Africa and the Middle East, in a few decades, it will be impossible to live because of too high temperatures. A study by German scientists suggests that by the middle of the century the average temperature in these regions will rise by 2.5 degrees in winter and by 5 degrees in summer, if the increase in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere occurs at the same rate as now.

About 500 million people now live in North Africa and the Middle East. In these already hot regions, the number of extremely hot days happening in a year has doubled in the last 45 years. By the middle of the century, instead of an average of 16 days of abnormal heat per year, 80 such days can be expected.

"In the future, the climate in large areas located in North Africa and the Middle East may change in such a way that the very existence of the population in them will be threatened," says Jos Lelieveld, director of the Institute of Chemistry. Max Planck (Germany) and lead author.
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Forecasts show that in the specified regions at night the temperature will not fall below 30 degrees, and during the day it can rise to 46 degrees Celsius. By the end of the century, the midday heat can reach 50 degrees, and the days of abnormal heat (" heat waves ") will occur many times more often than today. Nowadays, an average of about 16 days of abnormal heat can be a year.

If greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced at least by the year 2040, then by the 2100th the number of such days can reach 80. If emissions continue at the same pace, then there may well be 200 such days every year.

For forecasts, scientists used 26 different climate models. At first, they compared real meteorological observations from 1986 to 2005 with those predicted by these models. Having checked their successful predictive power, the scientists then calculated the forecasts for the periods from 2046 to 2065 and from 2081 to 2100.

In conditions of inhuman heat and increased sandstorms (the effects of heat increase due to poor heat capacity of the desert), we should expect that these regions will become practically unsuitable for life, and their inhabitants will have to migrate to neighboring ones.