Silent revolution. How geolocation smartphones change urban logistics

One of these days, in “The Secret of the Firm,” an interesting material came out about how “uberization” changes the approach to business in industries other than the actual taxi services. I decided to review the main points of this material and back them up with statistics.

Uber does not hire professional taxi drivers with a license, but ordinary drivers who want to earn extra money — such a model is called fractional employment (literally, “fractional employment”). In the field of transport, this approach is fraught with difficulties in dealing with the state and competitors, but there is also an example of a more relaxed implementation of a new business model. We are talking about delivery services.
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A bit of history

Five years ago, the classical model dominated this market - orders were carried out by regular couriers during their working day, usually from 8 am to 17 pm. The average size of the courier service was about 25 couriers. Back in 2010, the delivery was long and expensive, and on the day of the order a few shipments were delivered. Next day delivery was considered a premium service, and the most common and cheap delivery was within 3 days. In some cases, to get the goods at home was impossible in principle.

At that time, for example, it was possible to buy snowboard with delivery only in a large store that built its courier service. It was not profitable for independent courier services to cooperate with a small business, which could not even arrange payment by bank transfer. Five years ago it was normal, but today users all over the world are becoming more and more demanding: if a car is served in a couple of minutes when ordering a taxi through the application, then why do you need to wait a few days for delivery or even go shopping yourself? That is why the same day delivery is gaining popularity.

After a few years, even this level of service will not suit anyone - according to the Deliverant service (its founder wrote a column in “The Secret of the Firm”, which we refer to at the beginning of the topic), now in Moscow 52% of orders are marked “urgent ", Which means the need for maximum speed, and not just" today ", and performed for a time within 105 minutes.

What the technological revolution really looks like

At the same time, the technological revolution in the areas of taxi and delivery takes place quietly and not as rapidly as it may seem when looking at the PR activity of various companies. If we talk about transportation, despite the popularity and ever-growing estimate of Uber, traditional taxi companies are still carrying more passengers.

Another example is that the prospects for the delivery of goods by drones were widely discussed not so long ago, but it is clear that in the coming years it will not become widespread. It is dangerous to fly over cities, it is difficult to regulate such flights, therefore the authorities of different countries are not at all enthusiastic about the fact that flying couriers flood the sky. In Russia, the registration of drones is already planning to do the FSB.

Instead of replacing people with cars, some employees are replaced by others - if earlier the goods were delivered by courier services, now delivery services attract people according to the Uber model. Using a mobile application, a courier can track orders and carry them out when convenient, combining them with any other activities. This approach opens the profession for a large number of people, allowing them to earn those who really want it - today, according to various estimates, up to 1% of Moscow residents are registered in the database of courier services. The portrait of a modern courier is also changing. For example, among them the number of girls is growing - today their number is 22.6% against 18.3% two years earlier.

To manage a business using the “fractional employment” model, it is necessary to automate quality control. If the passenger was not satisfied with the trip, or the buyer received the goods with a delay, he should be able to instantly leave a negative assessment and thus reduce the performer’s rating. Artists with an average rating below a certain value are automatically disconnected from the order distribution system.

Impact on the business model of traditional industries has not only Uber, but also, for example, Facebook. The social network uses various algorithms that, based on data on user preferences, shows them content - the person does not need to understand the huge flow of information himself, the robot will determine what is more interesting for him. For example, if a user "likes" the publication of specific friends or companies, then more messages from these sources will appear in his feed.

This approach is also used in business - delivery services are now developing their own algorithms that will be able to offer the best routes to couriers for the day. The system will be able to create a route and offer the employee to take those orders that will bring the maximum benefit - it will be beyond the power of the ordinary person to analyze this information.

As a result, today traditional courier services are losing the fight to new delivery services, which at times of peak load can attract an almost unlimited number of freelance couriers, and during periods of lull they do not bear the costs of salaries of idle workers. Similarly, taxi applications are defeated by traditional taxi companies.

But the technology does not stop at this either: Uber, Lyft and other services are already working together with automakers and other technology companies to create unmanned vehicles. As a result, drivers, and, as a result, couriers, will be replaced by self-driving cars in the foreseeable future.

Business will only have to figure out how to raise the delivered goods to the client’s apartment - overcoming the last tens of meters without the help of people will become a difficult task that will require serious innovations and, possibly, infrastructure solutions. Although it is impossible to completely dismiss the drones: already now some of them will cope with the vertical lift of the same snowboard - on the balcony to the buyer.