Forecasts for 2016: three major trends in the semiconductor industry

I am glad that my position gives me the opportunity at an early stage to get acquainted with the newest and most modern technologies from different parts of the world. Very often people ask me what I consider to be the next “big breakthrough.” And here comes a dilemma for me. The fact is that my heart is located to those technologies that delight me personally. To those who, I am sure, will make major changes in our lives. But at the same time, my mind rushes to technologies that have commercial potential, and which are already ready to become a reality of our life.

So, trying to find a balance between the gusts of the heart and mind, I prepared the three most significant predictions in the field of computer technology for 2016. These predictions are based on the developments that I have seen in the fascinating world of semiconductors, whose success can be the basis for a whole decade of computer technology development.

1. Virtual Reality (VR) becomes vertically oriented.

As we all could see at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, virtual reality is becoming mainstream. And I think this is a turning point in the development of technology. I will explain the reason for my judgment a bit later, but now I would like to take time to study the vector and the form of development of virtual reality in some detail.

My heart - the heart of a fan of games - no doubt prompts that virtual reality will become available on both PCs and consoles. After all, today gamers around the world, craving for more vivid impressions and powerful graphics, and I believe that in 2016 this need will only increase.
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However, my mind says that the main difficulty VR faces in the gaming industry is the lack of content. Of course, this problem will be resolved when developers finally adapt to working with virtual reality. In addition, from a software point of view, interest in AMD LiquidVR ™ technology today is quite large, but because of the high cost of equipment, it remains available only to a few gamers. Despite this fact, we should note how virtual reality is already beginning to change the industry.

For many years, virtual reality has taken a strong position in the field of defense development and the aviation industry, where people have been looking for a more natural and intuitive way to interact with technology. But when you look at other vertical sectors, such as education and medical research, you will understand that virtual reality has matured enough to transform these industries.
For example, GE is already using AMD technology in its Neuro VR Experience project, which immerses the user in a completely recreated atmosphere of the brain of British musician Ruben Wu (Reuben Wu), allowing you to monitor its thinking process and reactions to various stimuli in real time. If we talk about the nonprofit sector, today even the UN uses VR for emotional connection with donors in order to see the real life in the refugee camp.

Thus, I believe that in 2016 we will see many innovative approaches to the use of VR on the example of use in the vertical sector, which will demonstrate the wide commercial potential of the technology.

2. Servers and PCs will give people Internet development.

In the role of one of the representatives of people who constantly use the smartphone, I wholeheartedly recognize as remarkable any invention that makes working with a computer more personalized. And the Internet of Things (IoT), undoubtedly, is the concept that will continue to develop steadily along with the emergence of suitable applications in the industry.

Do not forget that there are also advantages for end users. Indeed, in fact, it is people who rely on all these devices, and the data they create helps to improve the quality of life. I am sure that this year, work with devices and applications will become a process more understandable and accessible to all.

However, from the consumer’s point of view, my mind throws me back to difficulties that still need to be overcome in order to improve the sensory elements and devices of the IoT system before making any meaningful predictions. Of the most obvious obstacles, we can note the current debate about the technology itself and compatibility standards, which, among many other factors, affect prices, and they in turn affect the use of IoT in business models. The problems of fragmentation and inconsistency of standards, fortunately, for the most part have already been solved, but they still postpone the process of mass implementation of the technology for at least one year.

Commercial use is, as usual, a completely different story. The area that much connects with IoT is data centers. The explanation for this is quite obvious: the success of introducing the billions of devices that collect data depends on how effectively we can store, analyze and retrieve useful information for people and businesses from this data. Therefore, an example of the revolutionary use of IoT can be considered high-power, but energy-efficient computing in the data center. That's what, in my opinion, could be a driver for the growing popularity of IoT in 2016.

I also foresee that PCs and laptops will play an important role this year. It may sound surprising against the background of constant reports of a reduction in this market, and in particular the PC market, which we have seen in the press over the past few years. But if you look at the numbers more closely, dividing them by equipment type and segment, you will see that there are bright spots in these markets too. This year, we are likely to observe a new development cycle related to upgrades to the line of commercial PCs and laptops and the transition to the Windows® 10 operating system.

At the same time, we will continue to observe growth in the field of special or custom PCs, including in the field of high-power systems, which are bought by users who want to get the most from their machines. Thus, conventional PCs and high-power devices of a small form factor remain an integral part of the technology market - both for business and for consumers.

3. Fascinating "mirror" effect

My third prediction: this year we will see a breakthrough in the field of graphic technology. We have already said that VR enters the mainstream market, however, we will not be satisfied until we get a reliable “mirror” picture from the graphics.

Even if you just look at today's VR solutions from a technological point of view, we will see that the latest generation of virtual reality helmets can display twice as many pixels as the previous version. But at the same time, a helmet review is only a small part of what our eyes can see in the real world.

Imagine a world where 3D graphics are supported on 16K screens! This is about 16 times more pixels than we see on most modern TVs. Now imagine that this picture is shown with an incredible refresh rate of 240 Hz - four times faster than on a standard monitor. This technology will create the feeling that we are really in a different world, and not just looking at the screen.

And although my heart tells me that this assumption is similar to fantasy, current trends in technology development, for example, VR, which is becoming more “real”, as well as the rate of increase in screen resolution, suggest that the effect of “mirror” image quality is really achievable . From a technical innovation point of view, this means a growing need for high-performance discrete graphics or, in other words, for the development of individual graphics processors.

Do not forget that the screen with a resolution of 16k to 16k and a resolution of 120Hz requires phenomenal power to upgrade 6 billion pixels per second. Moore's law alone will not help achieve such results - with such a narrow approach, the industry will have no chance of development. And my mind tells us that we will see some suitable revolutionary solutions from the semiconductor industry later this year.

The heart and mind of the semiconductor industry

For now, for now. These three big predictions, no doubt, will bring with them a number of smaller effects in this and next years. In my new position as President of AMD at EMEA, I will be watching with interest their manifestation in the region and globally. Perhaps you have a different look at each of these points, but in any case, 2016 promises to be another very rich and memorable year. One thing I can say for sure - all these trends, both with their mind and heart, will definitely be supported by all workers in the semiconductor industry.