What happened in the world of finance in a week # 15
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The past week began with a depreciation of the ruble — on March 10, the exchange rate of the dollar rose above 62 rubles, and the euro exceeded 66.5 rubles. The weakening of the Russian currency was due to a decrease in oil prices - the price of Brent crude on the same day fell below $ 57 a barrel.
By the end of the week, however, the fall slowed down - the euro exchange rate on Friday, March 13, fell below 65 rubles. Despite the decline in oil prices (on Friday Brent at the London auction cost less than $ 55 per barrel), the Russian market was supported by news of a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 14%.
Also on Friday at a press conference, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that "the ruble is undervalued by 10%." The Fitch rating agency announced the possibility of revising Russia's rating in April - it is now at the level of BBB- with a negative outlook, but there are factors that “support the investment level” of the country.
Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs decided to revise their forecast for the fall in oil prices to $ 40, as the demand for energy in the world was higher than expected, and the problems of a number of oil-producing countries led to a decrease in supply.
In addition, the Ministry of Energy of the United States revised its forecast for the cost of oil - according to new calculations, the average annual price of Brent will be $ 59.5 per barrel, and in 2016, according to American experts, the oil of this brand will rise to $ 75 per barrel. The forecast price for WTI crude oil, in contrast, was lowered to $ 52.15 a barrel in 2015 and $ 70 / bbl. in 2016.
ITinvest chief economist Sergey Egishyants described the situation on the oil market in his weekly review:
The beginning of the new week was marked by a further decline in oil prices on the background of information from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the growth of commercial reserves in the United States. By 7.54 Moscow time, April futures for Brent oil fell by 0.64% to $ 54.32 per barrel. The price of April futures for WTI crude oil fell to $ 44.35 a barrel.
On Tuesday, March 10, Russian stock indices declined significantly due to the fall in oil prices - the RTS index fell by 6% and MICEX fell by more than 3.5%. The ending of the week was also held in the red zone - the MICEX index fell by 2.21% - to 1,627.88 points, and the RTS index fell by 2.99% and amounted to 833.57 points.
ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in one of his reviews on Thursday, March 12, commented on the dynamics of the Russian stock market as follows:
ITinvest expert Dmitry Solodin prepared a review of last week's economic events:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Images: AP, TASS
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency markets
The past week began with a depreciation of the ruble — on March 10, the exchange rate of the dollar rose above 62 rubles, and the euro exceeded 66.5 rubles. The weakening of the Russian currency was due to a decrease in oil prices - the price of Brent crude on the same day fell below $ 57 a barrel.
By the end of the week, however, the fall slowed down - the euro exchange rate on Friday, March 13, fell below 65 rubles. Despite the decline in oil prices (on Friday Brent at the London auction cost less than $ 55 per barrel), the Russian market was supported by news of a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 14%.
Also on Friday at a press conference, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that "the ruble is undervalued by 10%." The Fitch rating agency announced the possibility of revising Russia's rating in April - it is now at the level of BBB- with a negative outlook, but there are factors that “support the investment level” of the country.
Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs decided to revise their forecast for the fall in oil prices to $ 40, as the demand for energy in the world was higher than expected, and the problems of a number of oil-producing countries led to a decrease in supply.
In addition, the Ministry of Energy of the United States revised its forecast for the cost of oil - according to new calculations, the average annual price of Brent will be $ 59.5 per barrel, and in 2016, according to American experts, the oil of this brand will rise to $ 75 per barrel. The forecast price for WTI crude oil, in contrast, was lowered to $ 52.15 a barrel in 2015 and $ 70 / bbl. in 2016.
ITinvest chief economist Sergey Egishyants described the situation on the oil market in his weekly review:
The latest data from Baker Hughes showed a renewed acceleration of the decline in the number of operating drilling rigs in the US (and especially in Canada, where last year the figure shrank by 2.6 times) - another -6.5% per week and -36.1% per year to a minimum of almost 4 years; The 3-month dynamics both for oil separately and for oil and gas together (-41.5% and -37.9%) is very close to the historical anti-records of 2009, 1993, 1986 and 1958. The fact is that the excess oil (large - although the US Department of Energy is waiting for the shale to stagnate) is almost nowhere to store - everything is full, including tankers adapted for these purposes. Given the cheekiness of shale miners (there were losses even at the peak of prices - because firms were in a hurry to buy everything around for all the money earned or borrowed) and the increased interest on loans to low-trust borrowers .
The beginning of the new week was marked by a further decline in oil prices on the background of information from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the growth of commercial reserves in the United States. By 7.54 Moscow time, April futures for Brent oil fell by 0.64% to $ 54.32 per barrel. The price of April futures for WTI crude oil fell to $ 44.35 a barrel.
Stock markets
On Tuesday, March 10, Russian stock indices declined significantly due to the fall in oil prices - the RTS index fell by 6% and MICEX fell by more than 3.5%. The ending of the week was also held in the red zone - the MICEX index fell by 2.21% - to 1,627.88 points, and the RTS index fell by 2.99% and amounted to 833.57 points.
ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in one of his reviews on Thursday, March 12, commented on the dynamics of the Russian stock market as follows:
After the next “black Tuesday,” the Russian stock market once again showed weakness and was not even able to demonstrate even a small technical rebound. Lower correction targets for Russian indices are now fully open, so March and April may turn out to be a failure for investors. The immediate objectives of the correction on the MICEX ruble index for the next two months are in the range of 1500-1520 and we are not revising them yet.
Market Overview
ITinvest expert Dmitry Solodin prepared a review of last week's economic events:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Images: AP, TASS
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/377413/
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