What happened in the world of finance in a week # 12
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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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At the beginning of last week, the Russian currency strengthened - on February 17, the dollar exchange rate dropped below 62.55 rubles (63.4 kopeks. Below the closing rate on February 16), and the euro fell to 71.09 rubles (71 kopecks below the close of the previous trading session). ). On Wednesday, the European currency broke through the border of 71 rubles (on Thursday this maneuver was repeated by the official exchange rate of the euro). The week ended with the fall of the euro below 70 rubles, and the dollar - below 61.50 rubles.
Analysts attributed the growth of the ruble to a decrease in geopolitical tensions after the entry into force of the armistice in the east of Ukraine, as well as the approaching tax period. In addition, the positive impact of stable oil prices was noted - in the middle of the week during the bidding on the ICE exchange, the cost of futures for Brent crude for delivery in April 2015 rose to $ 62.47 per barrel.
According to ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin, oil prices have rested on the local ceiling:
Here's how in his review the situation on the oil market was described by the chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants:
At the same time, representatives of the Ministry of Finance stated that the ruble is strengthening not because of external reasons, like the tax period, but thanks to the country's “strong balance of payments”. The Director of the Ministry of Finance, Maxim Oreshkin, also noted that “it cannot be excluded that the trend [of the ruble exchange rate] will continue”
At the same time, experts polled by Bloomberg predict that the ruble will fall by another 8% by the end of the year, while Moody's analysts believe that the risk of default by Russia has increased over the last month.
In his review, ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik commented on Moody's decision to downgrade Russia's rating to a speculative level:
Meanwhile, researchers from Romir found out that because of sanctions and devaluation, Russians began to eat more diversely - the prices that had grown and the absence of some usual goods made people look for a replacement for them.
Early last week, despite the strengthening of the ruble and rising oil prices, the main Russian stock indices were falling . Subsequently, the dollar RTS index fell below 900 points, and the ruble MICEX index fell to 1,777.46 points. On Monday, the decline continued: the MICEX index declined by 10.10 Moscow time on Monday by 1.3% - to 1,769.98 points, the RTS index - by 3.7%, to 876.55 points.
According to analysts, market participants act out the decision of Moody's to downgrade Russia's rating to a speculative level. Now, two of the three leading rating agencies are rating Russia below investment grade, which imposes restrictions on investments in Russian assets by some funds.
Vasily Oleinik in the review spoke about the likely scenarios for the development of the situation on the Russian stock market:
RBC-TV economic observer Zhanna Nemtsova prepared an overview of current economic topics: forecasts and factors affecting oil quotes and the ruble exchange rate, and also highlighted the prospects for the development of the situation in Greece:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Images: Fotobank / Getty Images ( RBC ), Our City , RIA Novosti
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
')
Currency markets
At the beginning of last week, the Russian currency strengthened - on February 17, the dollar exchange rate dropped below 62.55 rubles (63.4 kopeks. Below the closing rate on February 16), and the euro fell to 71.09 rubles (71 kopecks below the close of the previous trading session). ). On Wednesday, the European currency broke through the border of 71 rubles (on Thursday this maneuver was repeated by the official exchange rate of the euro). The week ended with the fall of the euro below 70 rubles, and the dollar - below 61.50 rubles.
Analysts attributed the growth of the ruble to a decrease in geopolitical tensions after the entry into force of the armistice in the east of Ukraine, as well as the approaching tax period. In addition, the positive impact of stable oil prices was noted - in the middle of the week during the bidding on the ICE exchange, the cost of futures for Brent crude for delivery in April 2015 rose to $ 62.47 per barrel.
According to ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin, oil prices have rested on the local ceiling:
Here's how in his review the situation on the oil market was described by the chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants:
According to Baker Hughes, the weekly and monthly rate of well closure in the United States is maximum in 22 years - and in general from the peak, compression in 4.5 months reached 30%: production is still growing - but this is hardly a long, painful process. The price of Brent crude went at $ 63 a barrel, while WTI fell behind - its peak was only 54; we are still waiting for a rollback somewhere from these levels - and if not, the following goals, apparently, are located in the ranges 68-73 for Brent and 64-69 for WTI.
At the same time, representatives of the Ministry of Finance stated that the ruble is strengthening not because of external reasons, like the tax period, but thanks to the country's “strong balance of payments”. The Director of the Ministry of Finance, Maxim Oreshkin, also noted that “it cannot be excluded that the trend [of the ruble exchange rate] will continue”
At the same time, experts polled by Bloomberg predict that the ruble will fall by another 8% by the end of the year, while Moody's analysts believe that the risk of default by Russia has increased over the last month.
In his review, ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik commented on Moody's decision to downgrade Russia's rating to a speculative level:
The consequences of this decision from the agency “Moody's” will in a negative way be recouped by investors clearly more than one day. Do not forget that if a country loses its “investment” rating, then almost all Russian companies will automatically lose their investment rating after that. Given the fact that corporate debt is several times larger than government debt, the consequences, not only for many companies, but also for the Russian currency, will not be bright. In the near future, a return of debts in the amount of 25-30 billion dollars may be claimed from Russian companies, which will create a very strong pressure on the Russian currency. If we consider that the foreign capital markets for Russian companies have long been closed, then besides the government no one can help them, which means gold reserves (gold reserves) will begin to thaw even faster. Also, do not forget that now Russia can be excluded from the international MSCI index, and this factor will also be included in the quotes in advance.
Meanwhile, researchers from Romir found out that because of sanctions and devaluation, Russians began to eat more diversely - the prices that had grown and the absence of some usual goods made people look for a replacement for them.
Stock markets
Early last week, despite the strengthening of the ruble and rising oil prices, the main Russian stock indices were falling . Subsequently, the dollar RTS index fell below 900 points, and the ruble MICEX index fell to 1,777.46 points. On Monday, the decline continued: the MICEX index declined by 10.10 Moscow time on Monday by 1.3% - to 1,769.98 points, the RTS index - by 3.7%, to 876.55 points.
According to analysts, market participants act out the decision of Moody's to downgrade Russia's rating to a speculative level. Now, two of the three leading rating agencies are rating Russia below investment grade, which imposes restrictions on investments in Russian assets by some funds.
Vasily Oleinik in the review spoke about the likely scenarios for the development of the situation on the Russian stock market:
The immediate goal of the correction [MICEX index] and the nearest resistance is in the range of 1620-1650 points. While it’s too early to talk about breaking the uptrend, such a scenario fits into the scope of correction, but if the nearest support in March does not stand, it will be a reversal. [...]
In terms of futures on the RTS index, the technical picture is also quite clear. A little more than a week ago, I wrote that after the signing of the “Minsk” agreements, the maximum that could be expected was a rise from 82,000 to 92,000 points, since there was practically no fuel in the market. Last week, the price three times tried to pierce the mark of 92,000 points, but not a single hint of the breakdown did not come. I did not once write about opening short positions from 92,000 points, although I made a reservation that the risk of divorce is very high. As a result, we have what we have. There is no fuel for growth in the market for more than a week. There is a strong negative and there is a level that could not be broken through. Now we are waiting for the decline to 82000 points, then we will have to look.
Results of the week
RBC-TV economic observer Zhanna Nemtsova prepared an overview of current economic topics: forecasts and factors affecting oil quotes and the ruble exchange rate, and also highlighted the prospects for the development of the situation in Greece:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Images: Fotobank / Getty Images ( RBC ), Our City , RIA Novosti
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/376825/
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