Swan, cancer and pike as solutions to the Fermi paradox

What is common between stereotypical geeks on February 14 and the Fermi paradox? The cry of the “why are we alone?” Space? Stereotypes are stupid, but Fermi paradox is worth telling. You can formulate it as follows:

1. Obviously, humankind exists as a relatively highly developed technological civilization.
2. Mankind leaves traces of its existence: radio waste from conventional broadcasts, radio signals specially sent to stars, several interstellar probes. If we have the opportunity, we will surely go to colonize the star systems. And if we can light or extinguish the stars for the benefit of the national economy, then let us deal with this too.
3. The galaxy is big. It is logical to assume that somewhere else there are other civilizations that would also have to leave traces of their existence, at least as a result of ordinary existence, and at most - creating waves of colonization of star systems or arranging negotiations on the local analogue of the Great Ring of Ephraim. However, for some reason we did not find these traces.

But what have the animals from Krylov's fable?

Fermi-Semenov Bestiary

It was not for nothing that I formed the Fermi paradox in three separate points. In an extremely compressed form, it sounds like: “There are civilizations besides us, there are their noticeable traces, we see these traces. Something is wrong. ” And in order to solve it for yourself, it is necessary to abandon one of the three components of the paradox. And the triad Swan-Cancer-Pike as a mnemonic formula was introduced by Alex Semyonov back in 2008. I changed the wording somewhat, but left the general principle. So, what are these components:



Swan Motto: "We are alone."

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"Swan" is ready to sacrifice part of "There is a civilization besides us." It is hard for him to imagine the absence of large-scale traces of a highly developed civilization (Swans love to dream of waves of colonization of galactic scales), and he will not agree with the limitations of our means of observation. This includes, for example, Shklovsky , who directly wrote in the journal "Knowledge is power":

The simplest, one can say, trivial explanation of the phenomenon of the “silent Universe”: super-highly developed extraterrestrial civilizations in the immediate vicinity of the Great Universe (for example, in the Local System of Galaxies) simply do not exist.

It was especially good to be Swan before the active discovery of exoplanets. A beautiful chain of multiplying small probabilities arose: “An extremely small number of stars have planets; if there are planets, they are unfit for life; if suddenly the conditions are suitable, then life rarely arises; if it arises, it does not give rise to the mind, and if suddenly the mind is born, then it self-destructs in a nuclear war or some other horror. ” The multiplication of very small probabilities can indeed give one civilization to the entire galaxy, Lebedu is most comfortable.

A specific subspecies of Swans are representatives of the Abrahamic religions. Their paradox is solved simply - the Earth is unique, there is no life anywhere else.



Pike The motto "Keep looking."







Pike believes in the power of life. Evolution moves forward primitive lumps of mucus around the volcanoes of the subglacial oceans of the satellites of the gas giants, in the warm seas of the planets of the “habitable zone”, in the storm atmospheres of the gas giants. Pikes are ready to believe in sensible organosilicone creatures, yes, in principle, whatever you like. And they do not doubt our observational capabilities. Conclusion - the weakest part is “there are noticeable traces of civilizations.” Maybe the tracks are just lost. Who knows if our usual programs are already heard at the distance of one light year? Will our few signals reach the planets with a mind that hears them? Or all intelligent civilizations do not want to signal their presence, fearing that someone strong and angry will arrive? Why build Dyson spheres and extinguish the stars? And, maybe, in general, physics makes senseless interstellar flights? Maybe the radio between the stars, no one communicates? Or, in just one hundred years after the invention of the radio, we just did not have time to hear anything?

Optimist pikes can participate in SETI projects, and big optimists can send interstellar messages. Paranimistic pessimists discuss interstellar wars and how to detect and protect against aggressive neighbors.



Cancer The motto "They are here."







Well, for the "Cancer" the most acceptable is the rejection of the part "we see the traces of civilizations." Why not see? Well, for example, because they are already here and if you scratch an astronomer, you will find a reptiloid. UFOs, abductions, close contacts of the third degree, all of these are marginal aspects of Cancer thinking. In a more adequate state, hypotheses are born of the “Zoo scenario” type, where intelligent and advanced aliens are closely watching us without revealing their presence to us.

Drake equation

It is difficult to find something more beautiful than a ship at full speed , a galloping horse and a girl reading the Drake equation:





The Drake equation was invented in 1960 to estimate the number of civilizations in our galaxy and, consequently, the likelihood of contact with them. It has the following form:







Despite the somewhat unfriendly look, it is simple and can be remembered:

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy.

R _* is the number of stars formed in our galaxy in a year. R - from “rate”, in this case “intensity”.

f _p - the probability of occurrence of planets in the star. “F” is “fraction” - “fraction”, “p”, obviously, “planets”, “planets”.

n _e - the average value of potentially habitable planets. “N” is the standard number designation, “e”, most likely, from “environment” - “environment”.

f _l - the proportion of potentially inhabited planets on which life originates. "L", obviously, from "life" - "life".

f _i is the probability of developing intelligent life on planets where there is already life. “I”, apparently, is formed from “intelligence”, “mind”.

f _c is the proportion of intelligent civilizations that wish to make contact. “C” - “contact”, “contact”.

L is the life span of a civilization. "L" from "length", duration.



Drake himself in 1961 chose the following values ​​of coefficients:

• R = 10 (10 stars are formed per year).
• f _p = 0.5 (half of the stars have planets).
• n _e = 2 (two planets in the system are suitable for life).
• f _l = 1 (if the planet is suitable for life, then it will definitely arise).
• f _i = 0.01 (on one planet out of a hundred, life develops before the appearance of the mind).
• f _c = 0.01 (one civilization out of a hundred wants and can make contact).
• L = 10,000 years (civilization lives on average 10,000 years).

We consider:

N = 10 * 0.5 * 2 * 1 * 0.01 * 0.01 * 10 000 = 10 . Besides us, there are 9 more civilizations in the galaxy. The galaxy is very large, it is not surprising that we do not see them.



The main problem of the Drake equation - most of the parameters are set subjectively, because there is no way to accurately estimate their value. Obviously, Drake in the 60s was Pike, because of 10 civilizations, even in a large galaxy, at least someone can see another. And the article “Drake's equation” on Wikipedia was written by explicit Swans, because they make 0.002275 civilizations in the galaxy.



I tried to estimate the number of civilizations, based on my views:

• R = 7. Everything is simple here - this is the latest NASA and ESA assessment.
• f _p = 0,6. The development of the means of observation gives a minimum estimate of 0.3 and the maximum already close to 1. Let there be a middle — two thirds.
• n _e = 1. The assessment is based solely on the solar system, and it is somewhat pessimistic, because liquid water was reliably on Mars and reliably on the satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. With some probability on Venus for the whole 2 billion years there could be a water ocean.
• f _l = 0.5. In my opinion, we still do not know much about the origin of life, it was too long ago. It seems to me that there is no reason to think that the occurrence of life is a very rare thing, at the same time it cannot be argued that it is natural and necessary.
• f _i = 0,7. What I know about evolution says that the complication of organisms is natural, and we leave three tenths on planetary catastrophes, such as what happened with Venus or Mars.
• f _c = 0,2. One civilization is altruistic, one is paranoid. The result is 0.5. Divide by two to take into account the inefficiency of the interstellar message (we are too lazy to send signals, send them in the wrong direction, signals are blocked, etc.)
• L = 10,000 years. The most subjective assessment. Let the original Drake estimate remain.

We consider:

N = 7 * 0.6 * 1 * 0.5 * 0.7 * 0.2 * 10 000 = 2940 . Well, I have long classified myself as a Pike, nothing surprising. The galaxy is big, there are chances to find someone else.

50 shades of making Fermi's paradox

In 2002, Stephen Webb’s book, 50 Fermi Paradox Solutions, was published. She does not claim to present the most complete solution to the paradox, but is good representative of the hypotheses. Hypotheses are not grouped strictly according to the “Swan / Cancer / Pike” scheme, but are divided into three similar groups, which probably indicates the success of Semenov’s classification. So:



Group one. "They are already here":



1. They are already here and call themselves Hungarians. Joke.

2. They are already here and intervene in human affairs. UFOs, aliens, everything. The author saw a UFO in childhood, but is skeptical of them.

3. They were once here. Paleocontact The aliens flew in, hunted for dinosaurs, and flew away. Or they left the observer probes - the Solar system is large, the probe can be hidden if desired.

4. They exist, and we are aliens: we are all aliens! Panspermia hypothesis. In my opinion, the main disadvantage is that even intentional panspermia is not very similar to colonization. And where are our "parents"?

5. Scenario Zoo. They are here and are watching us. But they do not interfere for any reasons. And if they interfere, they hide it.

6. Prohibition Script. The galaxy has long been colonized, and those aliens who own our part of space use us as a reality show.

7. The planetarium hypothesis. "The Matrix" Wachowski or something like that.

8. God exists. Supertechnology is indistinguishable from magic, supercivilization - from God. Anthropic principle. Creating Universes while making black holes. The question is: if humanity can make a black hole, will we formally become gods, and how can we communicate with this new universe?



Group two. “They exist, but have not yet contacted us”:



9. Stars are very far away. Interstellar travel is not possible. But this does not explain the absence of signals.

10. They just did not have enough time to fly to us. The rate of possible colonization of the galaxy is unknown, how can we calculate if we were supposed to fly to us?

11. Theory of perlocation. Rather complicated theory of the spread of civilizations that create colonies. Colonization can stop or form a fractal surface with voids, or form a solid filling with small voids.

12. The probes of Bracewell-Von Neumann. These are self-generating automata that could be used to colonize or prepare solar systems for colonization. Or build an army on the outskirts of the enemy system. However, we also do not observe probes.

13. We are solar chauvinists. Or maybe aliens are interested not in stars like the Sun, but in blue giants? However, the main sequence stars like our Sun are relatively more than others.

14. They stay at home ... Humanity has flown to the moon and for more than forty years has not been able to return there. Do aliens have to be different?

15. And roam the Internet. "Planetarium" on the contrary - civilization itself goes into virtuality. Not so impossible, if you look at the spread of computers and the Internet.

16. They send signals, but we do not know how to listen. Different exotic types of communication are discussed. But why not use a simple radio?

17. They are honking, but we do not know at what frequency to listen. Do we just listen at the right frequencies? How and for what reasons were they chosen?

18. Our search strategy is incorrect. We are listening to the wrong region of the sky. Or not the stars. Maybe it makes sense to look for very brightly signaling super-civilizations?

19. The signal is already here. What is the probability that the signal has already been caught, but misunderstood or even forgotten in the archives?

20. We just don't listen long enough. But the author believes that the signals should have been there long ago.

21. Everyone listens, but no one transmits. To transmit a signal is expensive.

22. Berserkers. Von Neumann probes that destroy all living things. All who are alive are silent from fear. And we have not had time to fly.

23. They have no desire to enter into communication. Seriously, do they need it at all?

24. They developed another math. We will not understand them, and they - us, even if we hear each other by chance.

25. They send signals, but we cannot recognize them. A variant of the previous hypothesis.

26. They are somewhere, but the Universe is stranger than we think. Parallel worlds, telepathy and the like.

27. The choice of disasters. Wars, man-made disasters, gray goo, black hole in the collider. All died, and we too soon will not.

28. They reach the Singularity. Optimistic version of the previous hypothesis. Everyone has already left for the Singularity, and we too will not be soon at this pitiful level of existence.

29. Cloudy skies are widespread. Nobody thinks about aliens. Massaraksh!

30. Infinitely many extraterrestrial civilizations exist, but only one of them is in our light cone - this is us. Because the origin of life is a very rare thing.



Group "They do not exist":



31. The universe exists only for us. Anthropic principle. The emergence of life is very difficult, and only we were lucky.

32. They have arisen only recently. And we will be progressors or high-tech alien invaders.

33. Planetary systems are rare. Already proven to be wrong.

34. We are the first. A more rigorous version of one of the previous hypotheses.

35. Stone planets are rare. Stone chondrites, which could be the first sand grains for the formation of the planet, may require a close gamma-ray burst.

36. The continuous habitable zone is narrow. As the star develops, it usually becomes brighter, and the habitable zone shifts. A zone that is habitable during the entire existence of a star is called a continuous habitable zone. And, perhaps, this zone is very narrow or is completely absent in most stars. If life appears, it does not have time to develop.

37. Jupiters are rare. Jupiter is a useful planet, it protects us from comets, and it is possible that it took part in the creation of the planetozimali, which collided with proto-Earth and created the Moon.

38. The Earth has an optimal evolutionary pump. Jupiter shakes the asteroids through orbital resonance and throws them to Earth. Dinosaurs are dying out, mammals are happy.

39. The galaxy is a dangerous place. Supernovae, gamma-bursts, other hazards. If where life has started, it is quickly sterilized.

40. The planetary system is a dangerous place. Asteroids, supervolcanoes, changes in the orbits of the planets and the speed of their rotation - all this kills the weak shoots of life.

41. The Earth plate tectonics system is unique. The magnetic field protects us from the sun, the continents help evolution, carbon dioxide stabilizes the climate.

42. The moon is unique. And without the moon - no life.

43. The emergence of life is an extremely rare event.

44. The transition from prokaryotes to eukaryotes is rare.

45. Species that create tools, are rare.

46. Technological progress is not inevitable. Alternatively, further than today's level, it is impossible. Enjoy the last decades before the death of civilization, when oil runs out, and thermonuclear power plants will not appear.

47. Human-level intelligence is rare.

48. Language is unique to humans.

49. Science is unique.

50. The solution of the Fermi paradox. The opinion of the author is either one of the coefficients of the Drake equation is zero, or all the coefficients are close to zero. We are alone, and the author is Swan.

Conclusion

As a source of information, very good Wikipedia articles , LJ Semenov and the theme “50 solutions of the Fermi paradox” of the Astroforum were used. There are 119 pages, if you want a long reading, I can recommend.



And I would be interested in the statistics of Swans, Rakovs and Pikes on Hiktays, how many civilizations in the galaxy are your parameters for the Drake equation, and what do you think is the solution to the Fermi paradox?