What happened in the world of finance in a week # 10
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At the beginning of last week, in the course of trading on the stock exchange, the dollar either rose above 70 rubles, then fell below the 69 rubles mark. Analysts called the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine negative factors affecting the Russian currency, and news about rising oil helped the ruble to fall.
Brent oil during trading on the London Stock Exchange ICE on Monday exceeded $ 55 per barrel, and on Tuesday rose to $ 58, which caused the dollar to fall below 65 rubles. Subsequently, the oil quotes went down and pulled the ruble behind them — as early as Wednesday a barrel of Brent crude in London was $ 55.54, and the dollar was trading at 68 rubles.
The week ended with the growth of oil prices and the next strengthening of the ruble - at the auction on Friday the ruble per dollar was less than 66 rubles, and for the euro - about 75.8 rubles. The official exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble, established by the Bank of Russia since February 7, 2015, amounted to 66.0432 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - 75.6591 rubles (a drop of almost 2.3 rubles).
At the beginning of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Monday February 9, the Russian currency began to strengthen strongly against the dollar and the euro. By 10.17 Moscow time the dollar settlement calculations "tomorrow" fell by 68 kopecks. up to 66.30 rubles, euro - 91 kopecks. up to 75.1 rubles After another half hour - to 10.46 - the dollar fell by 1.51 rubles. to 65.47 rubles, and the euro - by 1.73 rubles to 74.27 rubles.
ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin in his Smartweek program talked about whether the situation on the energy market was a harbinger of a recovery, or whether the growth in quotes was nothing more than a “technical rebound”:
In January 2015, depositors withdrew 309 billion rubles from ruble deposits from Sberbank - bank representatives stated that many depositors had switched to deposits in dollars. The profit of the largest Russian banks in 2014 decreased by almost 24%.
The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, is convinced that the dollar exchange rate will not reach 80 rubles and that “such a sharp” ruble weakening is not expected in the near future.
Against the background of the ruble strengthening and the rise in oil prices, Russian stock indices also showed growth last week. For example, on Wednesday, February 4, trading on the Russian stock market opened with rising prices for most liquid securities, while the MICEX index climbed 0.45% to 1,661.86 points. The ruble RTS index grew by 2.63% - to 807.87 points.
Photo: Moscow Exchange
On Friday, the MICEX index exceeded 1,750 points (an increase of 3.50%), while the RTS index increased by 2.72% and amounted to 826.40 points - a number of factors contributed to these results, including expectations from the negotiations of the Russian and EU leadership on the situation Ukraine, as well as the growth of oil prices.
On Monday, February 9, the MICEX index updated its maximum since April 2011 and K 11.47 Moscow time increased by 3.53% to 1,817.47 points, the RTS exceeded 850 points, rising by 5.84% to 874.67 points (maximum since December 2014 d) against the backdrop of the strengthening of the ruble.
ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in his weekly review described the prospects for the Russian market and mentioned the risks that investors need to take into account:
Economic analyst of RBC-TV Zhanna Nemtsova discussed with the investment consultant ITinvest Pavel Deryabin the trends of the Russian financial market and the existing investment opportunities on it:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Photo: Tass
')
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
Currency markets
At the beginning of last week, in the course of trading on the stock exchange, the dollar either rose above 70 rubles, then fell below the 69 rubles mark. Analysts called the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine negative factors affecting the Russian currency, and news about rising oil helped the ruble to fall.
Brent oil during trading on the London Stock Exchange ICE on Monday exceeded $ 55 per barrel, and on Tuesday rose to $ 58, which caused the dollar to fall below 65 rubles. Subsequently, the oil quotes went down and pulled the ruble behind them — as early as Wednesday a barrel of Brent crude in London was $ 55.54, and the dollar was trading at 68 rubles.
The week ended with the growth of oil prices and the next strengthening of the ruble - at the auction on Friday the ruble per dollar was less than 66 rubles, and for the euro - about 75.8 rubles. The official exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble, established by the Bank of Russia since February 7, 2015, amounted to 66.0432 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - 75.6591 rubles (a drop of almost 2.3 rubles).
At the beginning of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Monday February 9, the Russian currency began to strengthen strongly against the dollar and the euro. By 10.17 Moscow time the dollar settlement calculations "tomorrow" fell by 68 kopecks. up to 66.30 rubles, euro - 91 kopecks. up to 75.1 rubles After another half hour - to 10.46 - the dollar fell by 1.51 rubles. to 65.47 rubles, and the euro - by 1.73 rubles to 74.27 rubles.
ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin in his Smartweek program talked about whether the situation on the energy market was a harbinger of a recovery, or whether the growth in quotes was nothing more than a “technical rebound”:
In January 2015, depositors withdrew 309 billion rubles from ruble deposits from Sberbank - bank representatives stated that many depositors had switched to deposits in dollars. The profit of the largest Russian banks in 2014 decreased by almost 24%.
The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, is convinced that the dollar exchange rate will not reach 80 rubles and that “such a sharp” ruble weakening is not expected in the near future.
Stock markets
Against the background of the ruble strengthening and the rise in oil prices, Russian stock indices also showed growth last week. For example, on Wednesday, February 4, trading on the Russian stock market opened with rising prices for most liquid securities, while the MICEX index climbed 0.45% to 1,661.86 points. The ruble RTS index grew by 2.63% - to 807.87 points.
Photo: Moscow Exchange
On Friday, the MICEX index exceeded 1,750 points (an increase of 3.50%), while the RTS index increased by 2.72% and amounted to 826.40 points - a number of factors contributed to these results, including expectations from the negotiations of the Russian and EU leadership on the situation Ukraine, as well as the growth of oil prices.
On Monday, February 9, the MICEX index updated its maximum since April 2011 and K 11.47 Moscow time increased by 3.53% to 1,817.47 points, the RTS exceeded 850 points, rising by 5.84% to 874.67 points (maximum since December 2014 d) against the backdrop of the strengthening of the ruble.
ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in his weekly review described the prospects for the Russian market and mentioned the risks that investors need to take into account:
Inflation in Russia, which already beats sixteen-year records, is the main driver for growth in the stock market. If you look at the stock prices in dollar equivalent, there is no positive there, although the situation has stabilized a bit over the past week. The situation in the Russian economy continues to deteriorate, so other investors for growth are now extremely difficult for investors to find. Yes, if the point in a military conflict in Ukraine is set and the parties manage to agree on everything, this will give another impetus to the growth of the Russian market within 10%, however, there are very few chances for that now, so the risk of correction by the same amount from the current marks now outweighs.
Another risk factor, not only for Russian investors, but for all stock markets, is Greece. At the end of the first week of active negotiations, Greece failed to convince European partners to give it more time to agree on new terms of cooperation, especially since we are not talking about more serious concessions from creditors. This Wednesday, eurozone finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on the Greek issue. If we make concessions to Greece, then this will cause strong discontent of such countries as Spain, Italy, Portugal, therefore we have yet to see the next “circus”. In February, Greece has quite substantial repayment of foreign debts, so there is not much time to resolve the issue with creditors. In the meantime, the slogans of A. Tsipras, with the possible refusal to pay on debts, have been scaring all European investors for the fourth day, and the Greek debt market is again under strong pressure. Wednesday will be the most important day of this week, so you should not make hasty purchases before this time.
Forecasts of the situation in the Russian market
Economic analyst of RBC-TV Zhanna Nemtsova discussed with the investment consultant ITinvest Pavel Deryabin the trends of the Russian financial market and the existing investment opportunities on it:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/376331/
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