Roscosmos is dead. Long live Roscosmos
And stands, shedding tears,
On the threshold of the universe poet.
He looks with open eyes
Into deep space, but there are no Russians there ...
© Sergey Zhukov
In the space industry of Russia, changes are coming. Again. But this time everything is more serious and radical. The chapter has already been changed, but this is only the beginning.
A little background.
')
In the summer of 2013, “ something went wrong, ” and the country's leadership finally realized that the Russian space program needed reorganization, which would save them of the problems accumulated during the 90s, 2000s.
The main reason for the fall in the quality and fall of the missiles was recognized by the merger in the person of Roscosmos of the customer and supplier functions. Those. Roscosmos could order a satellite for itself, make it with a marriage, and still recognize it as suitable for use. And forgive marriage.
To fix this matter, we decided to follow NASA’s example a decade ago - to leave the space agency as a strategy director, customer and manager of budget funds, and to merge manufacturers into one industrial giant, United Rocket and Space Corporation (ORKK). With the title did not particularly bother, yes ...
In the fall of 2013, they replaced the head of Roscosmos from the former general Vladimir Popovkin, to the general (later he was also made the former) Oleg Ostapenko. Ostapenko was to become the conductor of the planned reform: the separation of the entire industry from Roscosmos.
In 2014, reformers were engaged in the transfer of space companies and federal state unitary enterprises under the jurisdiction of ORKK. But during the same time, Oleg Ostapenko’s apparent unwillingness to share powers emerged. In addition, in 2014 they were supposed to adopt a new Federal space program ... but they did not accept it. The end of the year was remembered by the leap of global ideas: either we fly to the moon, we don’t fly, we build our own space station, we don’t build ... In fact, for a whole year Ostapenko did not do anything, for which he paid for not only with his post, but he buried the whole department .
Now they decided to disband Roskosmos as a government department, and to make a state corporation, which ... will be both a customer and a supplier!
Yesterday we managed to attend a meeting of the commission on reforming the Russian space industry. There were all! Almost.
If you thought that the Russian space looks like this:
You were wrong.
In fact, it looks like this:
I will try to briefly state what awaits us in the Russian space, according to the main drivers of the reform: Dmitry Rogozin and the new head of Roscosmos, Igor Komarov .
I will go through the main points voiced from the podium and try to comment.
Dmitry Rogozin:
“The second stage of the reform was conceived long ago, the completion of the first stage was expected, but the economic situation demanded tough decisions ... ” - it seems that Ostapenko’s inconsistency became obvious a long time ago, but the resignation of oil prices and a two-fold decrease in the value of the ruble spurred.
"The state corporation is the optimal form ... there is an example of Rosatom " - it worked with Rosatom, we decided to repeat it.
"The corporation forms the relations" customer-performer "and controls the quality at all stages of production ... " - it seems, Roskosmos also had to do it?
" Despite the foreign policy situation, we need to continue cooperation in space with all the leading technological powers " - suddenly hear this from Dmitry Rogozin , but the idea is sound. I think about my own space station will now be remembered only after $ 120 a barrel. Until that time, they will hold on to the ISS. And this is definitely correct.
" The main" political profit "- from expanding the range of space services, increasing the share of Russian spacecraft on the world market"
" Budgeting the income from space research " - this is hardly said about the extraction of turbine on Mars, therefore, most likely, we are talking about conducting commercial experiments on the ISS.
" We are waiting for the draft law on the state corporation by the end of January "
" Soyuz rocket launch from Vostochny in December 2015 "
“ Finalization of the FKP on the manned space program, there is as much money as possible, to decide on the ISS and on the development of deep space ” - the task is posed by which Ostapenko failed. Here, most likely, Komarov will take the sole decision, after having estimated the real budgets. I put on the refusal of the Moon, super-heavy rocket, own station ... The main thing is not to curtail the development of the PTK NP - now the ship is in a very dangerous situation due to the lack of an available target for it: the Soyuz successfully flies to the ISS and expensive.
“ The order on the General Designer has been prepared ... we are preparing the candidacies of the general designers of the presidential series ... ” - it looks like our complaints that we need a new SP Queens heard. The new “Queen” will be appointed, and the Council of Chiefs will be gathered with it. It is difficult to talk about the future prospects of this body. I am afraid there will be some kind of deliberative body without real authority, which does not affect decision-making or their implementation, and resembles the royal Council of Principal, only external attributes ... On the other hand, the new head of Roskosmos is a financier and crisis manager; Expert advice that can analyze projects. We'll see.
Igor Komarov:
" There is no time to achieve consensus, we need to make decisions carefully, but quickly and personalize responsibility " - the problem is defined correctly. Indecision and unwillingness to take responsibility - this is one of the diseases of the Russian cosmonautics officials, everyone is afraid of becoming extreme, and any initiative has to be dragged against wool. Where Komarov is going to find so many determined leaders is hard to say.
"The powers of the space corporation should largely coincide with the Rosatom model: develop draft regulations, manage budget funds, develop programs for space activities, customer powers, including government orders, the right to own property ... " state in the state. " In such a situation, the final result depends on the competence and abilities of the manager. It turns out that the future of all Russian cosmonautics for 5 and more years depends on only one person. According to experts , this decision is justified only in critical conditions. But we have them.
"The state corporation must be created in half a year "
“The possibilities of the federal budget are not limitless, therefore we will work through all the points of the Federal space program ” - the fallen oil forces us to rewrite all the plans.
" FKP draft to submit to the month of May "
“ For deep space, promising manned vehicles, extra-heavy carriers, the national orbital station, to make a decision no later than the end of February ... These should not be“ projects at any cost ”, and they should have a lasting effect on high-tech technologies. Manned projects, because of high prices and universal values ​​should be considered in the key of international cooperation ... "- they will almost certainly agree with NASA's proposal to continue the ISS project until 2024 and beyond. But I’m getting more and more worried at PTK NP - the project is exclusively Russian, and without the Moon, it’s not actually needed ... Hey, guys, what about the bundle of Orion-PTK NP and a joint flight to an asteroid? Here and deep space, and cooperation and advanced technology, and, comparatively, not expensive ... Dreams, dreams ...
"The production of space vehicles should be reduced to complexity, modularity, reduction of variability ... " - on the one hand, a sound decision, on the other, the lack of competition can affect product quality.
" In the world there is an increase in competition in the launch vehicles. In the tasks there is a fundamental reduction in costs, including the manned program ... " - and here is a three-time cheer for Mask and his rocket stages spread over barges in the open sea. We finally thought about the same tasks, although we had previously postponed them almost to the 30s. With the successful trials of reusability Falcon-9, I feel, the race of reusable rockets and space ships is coming. The future is getting closer!
" It is necessary to create powerful research centers, both applied and fundamental ones ... " - so far it is difficult to say what is at stake, but if they begin to finance space research institutes normally, this is definitely a positive initiative.
" Personnel problems are important, the state-owned corporation will solve them through interaction with industry institutions, it will not shift it onto the shoulders of enterprises ... " - well, let's hope that there will be a place for popularization.
" In the ground infrastructure, we will follow the path of maximum cost reduction ... " - echo, it seems rumors about the imposition of production with GNPT. Khrunichev and the sale / lease of enterprise space in Moscow are not such rumors.
" We will strive to reduce the bureaucratic apparatus, by delegating authority from the center to enterprises ... " - a sensible idea, but finding those who will take responsibility is a difficult task.
" With all the changes, the staffing structure of the gokoratsii will be less than the cumulative number of Roskosmos and ORKK managers ... " - layoffs are coming. I foresee a wave of indignation from the dismissed and inflating the theme of "the executioners finish off the Russian space". At Khrunichev this began six months ago.
"The issues of openness and interaction with society will be resolved by ensuring the transparency of the state corporation and public control. We assume the creation of a public council, interaction with the expert community ... " - popularize, popularize, don't forget!
Total: in general, it is good that they decided to stir up this bureaucratic bureaucratic swamp, where many have forgotten which way to go in order to get into space. But it is bad that the success of the structure being created largely depends on the managerial talents of Igor Komarov. He will cope with at least two thirds of the designated tasks - he will go down in history as the savior of the national astronautics. If you fail, then - as a gravedigger.
I can express my subjective impressions of him in three points:
1) For a year, he still could not soak up the space program and become with her on "you." On the other hand, the year is clearly not enough to study all the nuances, and sometimes it is better to remain silent.
2) It feels provincial simplicity and lack of metropolitan snobbery. At some moments it seems that he is even shy of the attention of journalists.
3) He can smile.
In order to assess the effectiveness of the reform, in the coming year it is enough to monitor compliance with the terms sounded above. It will be possible to talk about some significant results in two years. It remains only to wish success in such a difficult matter.
But for space innovators, startups are not joyful. For 40 minutes of the meeting, the word "innovation" was not uttered once. As the phrase "private space". Like the word "Skolkovo" ... Now Roscosmos is preparing to survive, so forget about baby talk, and get ready to survive on your own too. It is better to immediately orient products to a foreign market. In Russia, you will have to compete with all the power of the manufacturing giants Roscosmos GC.
On the threshold of the universe poet.
He looks with open eyes
Into deep space, but there are no Russians there ...
© Sergey Zhukov
In the space industry of Russia, changes are coming. Again. But this time everything is more serious and radical. The chapter has already been changed, but this is only the beginning.
A little background.
')
In the summer of 2013, “ something went wrong, ” and the country's leadership finally realized that the Russian space program needed reorganization, which would save them of the problems accumulated during the 90s, 2000s.
The main reason for the fall in the quality and fall of the missiles was recognized by the merger in the person of Roscosmos of the customer and supplier functions. Those. Roscosmos could order a satellite for itself, make it with a marriage, and still recognize it as suitable for use. And forgive marriage.
To fix this matter, we decided to follow NASA’s example a decade ago - to leave the space agency as a strategy director, customer and manager of budget funds, and to merge manufacturers into one industrial giant, United Rocket and Space Corporation (ORKK). With the title did not particularly bother, yes ...
In the fall of 2013, they replaced the head of Roscosmos from the former general Vladimir Popovkin, to the general (later he was also made the former) Oleg Ostapenko. Ostapenko was to become the conductor of the planned reform: the separation of the entire industry from Roscosmos.
In 2014, reformers were engaged in the transfer of space companies and federal state unitary enterprises under the jurisdiction of ORKK. But during the same time, Oleg Ostapenko’s apparent unwillingness to share powers emerged. In addition, in 2014 they were supposed to adopt a new Federal space program ... but they did not accept it. The end of the year was remembered by the leap of global ideas: either we fly to the moon, we don’t fly, we build our own space station, we don’t build ... In fact, for a whole year Ostapenko did not do anything, for which he paid for not only with his post, but he buried the whole department .
Now they decided to disband Roskosmos as a government department, and to make a state corporation, which ... will be both a customer and a supplier!
Yesterday we managed to attend a meeting of the commission on reforming the Russian space industry. There were all! Almost.
If you thought that the Russian space looks like this:
You were wrong.
In fact, it looks like this:
I will try to briefly state what awaits us in the Russian space, according to the main drivers of the reform: Dmitry Rogozin and the new head of Roscosmos, Igor Komarov .
I will go through the main points voiced from the podium and try to comment.
Dmitry Rogozin:
“The second stage of the reform was conceived long ago, the completion of the first stage was expected, but the economic situation demanded tough decisions ... ” - it seems that Ostapenko’s inconsistency became obvious a long time ago, but the resignation of oil prices and a two-fold decrease in the value of the ruble spurred.
"The state corporation is the optimal form ... there is an example of Rosatom " - it worked with Rosatom, we decided to repeat it.
"The corporation forms the relations" customer-performer "and controls the quality at all stages of production ... " - it seems, Roskosmos also had to do it?
" Despite the foreign policy situation, we need to continue cooperation in space with all the leading technological powers " - suddenly hear this from Dmitry Rogozin , but the idea is sound. I think about my own space station will now be remembered only after $ 120 a barrel. Until that time, they will hold on to the ISS. And this is definitely correct.
" The main" political profit "- from expanding the range of space services, increasing the share of Russian spacecraft on the world market"
" Budgeting the income from space research " - this is hardly said about the extraction of turbine on Mars, therefore, most likely, we are talking about conducting commercial experiments on the ISS.
" We are waiting for the draft law on the state corporation by the end of January "
" Soyuz rocket launch from Vostochny in December 2015 "
“ Finalization of the FKP on the manned space program, there is as much money as possible, to decide on the ISS and on the development of deep space ” - the task is posed by which Ostapenko failed. Here, most likely, Komarov will take the sole decision, after having estimated the real budgets. I put on the refusal of the Moon, super-heavy rocket, own station ... The main thing is not to curtail the development of the PTK NP - now the ship is in a very dangerous situation due to the lack of an available target for it: the Soyuz successfully flies to the ISS and expensive.
“ The order on the General Designer has been prepared ... we are preparing the candidacies of the general designers of the presidential series ... ” - it looks like our complaints that we need a new SP Queens heard. The new “Queen” will be appointed, and the Council of Chiefs will be gathered with it. It is difficult to talk about the future prospects of this body. I am afraid there will be some kind of deliberative body without real authority, which does not affect decision-making or their implementation, and resembles the royal Council of Principal, only external attributes ... On the other hand, the new head of Roskosmos is a financier and crisis manager; Expert advice that can analyze projects. We'll see.
Igor Komarov:
" There is no time to achieve consensus, we need to make decisions carefully, but quickly and personalize responsibility " - the problem is defined correctly. Indecision and unwillingness to take responsibility - this is one of the diseases of the Russian cosmonautics officials, everyone is afraid of becoming extreme, and any initiative has to be dragged against wool. Where Komarov is going to find so many determined leaders is hard to say.
"The powers of the space corporation should largely coincide with the Rosatom model: develop draft regulations, manage budget funds, develop programs for space activities, customer powers, including government orders, the right to own property ... " state in the state. " In such a situation, the final result depends on the competence and abilities of the manager. It turns out that the future of all Russian cosmonautics for 5 and more years depends on only one person. According to experts , this decision is justified only in critical conditions. But we have them.
"The state corporation must be created in half a year "
“The possibilities of the federal budget are not limitless, therefore we will work through all the points of the Federal space program ” - the fallen oil forces us to rewrite all the plans.
" FKP draft to submit to the month of May "
“ For deep space, promising manned vehicles, extra-heavy carriers, the national orbital station, to make a decision no later than the end of February ... These should not be“ projects at any cost ”, and they should have a lasting effect on high-tech technologies. Manned projects, because of high prices and universal values ​​should be considered in the key of international cooperation ... "- they will almost certainly agree with NASA's proposal to continue the ISS project until 2024 and beyond. But I’m getting more and more worried at PTK NP - the project is exclusively Russian, and without the Moon, it’s not actually needed ... Hey, guys, what about the bundle of Orion-PTK NP and a joint flight to an asteroid? Here and deep space, and cooperation and advanced technology, and, comparatively, not expensive ... Dreams, dreams ...
"The production of space vehicles should be reduced to complexity, modularity, reduction of variability ... " - on the one hand, a sound decision, on the other, the lack of competition can affect product quality.
" In the world there is an increase in competition in the launch vehicles. In the tasks there is a fundamental reduction in costs, including the manned program ... " - and here is a three-time cheer for Mask and his rocket stages spread over barges in the open sea. We finally thought about the same tasks, although we had previously postponed them almost to the 30s. With the successful trials of reusability Falcon-9, I feel, the race of reusable rockets and space ships is coming. The future is getting closer!
" It is necessary to create powerful research centers, both applied and fundamental ones ... " - so far it is difficult to say what is at stake, but if they begin to finance space research institutes normally, this is definitely a positive initiative.
" Personnel problems are important, the state-owned corporation will solve them through interaction with industry institutions, it will not shift it onto the shoulders of enterprises ... " - well, let's hope that there will be a place for popularization.
" In the ground infrastructure, we will follow the path of maximum cost reduction ... " - echo, it seems rumors about the imposition of production with GNPT. Khrunichev and the sale / lease of enterprise space in Moscow are not such rumors.
" We will strive to reduce the bureaucratic apparatus, by delegating authority from the center to enterprises ... " - a sensible idea, but finding those who will take responsibility is a difficult task.
" With all the changes, the staffing structure of the gokoratsii will be less than the cumulative number of Roskosmos and ORKK managers ... " - layoffs are coming. I foresee a wave of indignation from the dismissed and inflating the theme of "the executioners finish off the Russian space". At Khrunichev this began six months ago.
"The issues of openness and interaction with society will be resolved by ensuring the transparency of the state corporation and public control. We assume the creation of a public council, interaction with the expert community ... " - popularize, popularize, don't forget!
Total: in general, it is good that they decided to stir up this bureaucratic bureaucratic swamp, where many have forgotten which way to go in order to get into space. But it is bad that the success of the structure being created largely depends on the managerial talents of Igor Komarov. He will cope with at least two thirds of the designated tasks - he will go down in history as the savior of the national astronautics. If you fail, then - as a gravedigger.
I can express my subjective impressions of him in three points:
1) For a year, he still could not soak up the space program and become with her on "you." On the other hand, the year is clearly not enough to study all the nuances, and sometimes it is better to remain silent.
2) It feels provincial simplicity and lack of metropolitan snobbery. At some moments it seems that he is even shy of the attention of journalists.
3) He can smile.
In order to assess the effectiveness of the reform, in the coming year it is enough to monitor compliance with the terms sounded above. It will be possible to talk about some significant results in two years. It remains only to wish success in such a difficult matter.
But for space innovators, startups are not joyful. For 40 minutes of the meeting, the word "innovation" was not uttered once. As the phrase "private space". Like the word "Skolkovo" ... Now Roscosmos is preparing to survive, so forget about baby talk, and get ready to survive on your own too. It is better to immediately orient products to a foreign market. In Russia, you will have to compete with all the power of the manufacturing giants Roscosmos GC.
And yes, where are we without a joke about AvtoVAZ
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/375749/
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