Collective intelligence in action. Examples of projects.
Many liked the recent experiment , in which it was necessary to determine the number of nuts in a plate. Despite the fact that the experiment was simple, rude, and “unscientific,” the collective response of the users was very accurate. Nevertheless, there were many debunkers who called the experiment nonsense, and the method was useless in real life. Few people want to believe that the crowd can generate wise answers to serious questions;) I admit that I was guilty of not being able to correctly express the essence of the idea and many, probably, it seemed that I was talking about some kind of magic. Therefore, before carrying out the following experiments, I would like to talk a little about serious projects where ideas about the “wisdom of the crowd” are successfully applied.
The most famous area of ​​application of the “wisdom of the crowd” is, of course, prediction (or predictions - as you like). Predict anything: political events, the results of sports games, exchange rates, stock quotes and even events in the world of cinema. A useful application within companies is the creation of so-called corporate prediction markets (or information markets) that help answer questions such as: how many sales to expect in the next quarter? Which solution will be the most effective? What idea shoot? As participants of such surveys can be both employees of the company and its clients.
Here are just some of the examples:
Iowa Electronic Market
One of the oldest prediction markets is the University of Iowa project, in which participants try to predict election results. Rates are made in the form of buying contracts to win a candidate for real money. The project has existed for about 20 years and during this time it was shown that its forecasts are more accurate than traditional exit polls.
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Hollywood Stock Exchange
Here, participants predict the box office of Hollywood films, evaluate actors and directors. It is a virtual exchange, where each film (actor, director) has its own shares, which you can buy and sell for virtual money. The project has been successfully existing for 12 years, for example, in 2006, it was possible to correctly predict 32 of the 39 Oscar-winning nominees and 7 of the 8 winners of the main awards. BusinessWeek Magazine mentioned MGM and Lionsgate Studios as HSX customers.
NewsFutures
Another famous virtual prediction exchange. Participants predict events in various fields: politics, sports, finance. Operate with virtual money. They also offer solutions for corporate clients, for example, they forecast the number of sales, evaluate ideas and risks. Among their clients are: Corning, Renault, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Siemens, Masterfoods and Arcelor Mittal. There are 8 years.
Techcast
The oldest project uses the Delphi method. 100 experts from different parts of the world predict the development of various technologies. Their answers are summarized and statistics for each technology is displayed. For example, 56% of experts predict the appearance of the first lunar base in 2029. Unfortunately, to get access to the details, you need to pay 950 bucks for registration.
From Russian examples:
SuperGu.ru
Virtual Exchange, where participants make predictions about the growth or decline of securities on the RTS and MICEX. Supergu.ru summarizes the forecasts of all participants for each paper, given the accuracy of their forecasts in the past. Thus, for each security, you can see the collective forecast.
Dribbler
The community of football fans from the creators of Habr. One of the possibilities is to make your predictions on the outcome of matches. Unfortunately, neither the accuracy of the predictions of each participant, nor the overall accuracy of the community, is considered.
Iknowfuture.com
Our modest project, which was originally intended more as entertainment, to determine the public expectation of a particular event and, given the success of each participant, take the collective forecast. Now in the stage of refactoring, the prediction exchange with the game for real money and some new interesting ideas will be implemented. By the way, we can’t think up a normal name for the project;)
Use by corporations (taken from the wiki, the English version of which was translated by themselves):
Sources and links with more detailed information:
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction Market
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/wisdom_of_the_crowds
James Shurovyeki “ Wisdom of the crowd ”
Wolfers, Justin, & Eric Zitzewitz. Prediction Markets
Official Google Blog: Putting the crowd wisdom to work
Economist.com - The future of futurology
List of related articles , including publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek
The most famous area of ​​application of the “wisdom of the crowd” is, of course, prediction (or predictions - as you like). Predict anything: political events, the results of sports games, exchange rates, stock quotes and even events in the world of cinema. A useful application within companies is the creation of so-called corporate prediction markets (or information markets) that help answer questions such as: how many sales to expect in the next quarter? Which solution will be the most effective? What idea shoot? As participants of such surveys can be both employees of the company and its clients.
Here are just some of the examples:
Iowa Electronic Market
One of the oldest prediction markets is the University of Iowa project, in which participants try to predict election results. Rates are made in the form of buying contracts to win a candidate for real money. The project has existed for about 20 years and during this time it was shown that its forecasts are more accurate than traditional exit polls.
')
Hollywood Stock Exchange
Here, participants predict the box office of Hollywood films, evaluate actors and directors. It is a virtual exchange, where each film (actor, director) has its own shares, which you can buy and sell for virtual money. The project has been successfully existing for 12 years, for example, in 2006, it was possible to correctly predict 32 of the 39 Oscar-winning nominees and 7 of the 8 winners of the main awards. BusinessWeek Magazine mentioned MGM and Lionsgate Studios as HSX customers.
NewsFutures
Another famous virtual prediction exchange. Participants predict events in various fields: politics, sports, finance. Operate with virtual money. They also offer solutions for corporate clients, for example, they forecast the number of sales, evaluate ideas and risks. Among their clients are: Corning, Renault, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Siemens, Masterfoods and Arcelor Mittal. There are 8 years.
Techcast
The oldest project uses the Delphi method. 100 experts from different parts of the world predict the development of various technologies. Their answers are summarized and statistics for each technology is displayed. For example, 56% of experts predict the appearance of the first lunar base in 2029. Unfortunately, to get access to the details, you need to pay 950 bucks for registration.
From Russian examples:
SuperGu.ru
Virtual Exchange, where participants make predictions about the growth or decline of securities on the RTS and MICEX. Supergu.ru summarizes the forecasts of all participants for each paper, given the accuracy of their forecasts in the past. Thus, for each security, you can see the collective forecast.
Dribbler
The community of football fans from the creators of Habr. One of the possibilities is to make your predictions on the outcome of matches. Unfortunately, neither the accuracy of the predictions of each participant, nor the overall accuracy of the community, is considered.
Iknowfuture.com
Our modest project, which was originally intended more as entertainment, to determine the public expectation of a particular event and, given the success of each participant, take the collective forecast. Now in the stage of refactoring, the prediction exchange with the game for real money and some new interesting ideas will be implemented. By the way, we can’t think up a normal name for the project;)
Use by corporations (taken from the wiki, the English version of which was translated by themselves):
- Hewlett-Packard was at one time a pioneer in creating sales forecasting applications; today, in some of its divisions, it uses prediction markets (information from an academic publication from HP Labs and the Newsweek newspaper). The company is working on the commercial implementation of the BRAIN system (Behaviorally Robust Aggregation of Information Networks), as a complete market product.
- Intel in the Harvard Business Review magazine (April 2003) touched upon the market for predictions regarding capacity management.
- Microsoft launched prediction markets as internal pilot projects.
- France Telecom's Project Destiny has been operating since mid-2004 and has already shown its success.
- Google has confirmed in its official blog that it uses prediction markets for its internal needs.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that General Electric uses Consensus Point software for prediction markets to create new business ideas.
Sources and links with more detailed information:
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction Market
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/wisdom_of_the_crowds
James Shurovyeki “ Wisdom of the crowd ”
Wolfers, Justin, & Eric Zitzewitz. Prediction Markets
Official Google Blog: Putting the crowd wisdom to work
Economist.com - The future of futurology
List of related articles , including publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/37571/
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