What happened in the world of finance in a week # 7
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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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At the beginning of last week, the ruble was already routinely weakened - the official rate of the euro, announced by the Central Bank since January 13, rose by almost 6 rubles from the previous level (to 74.3551). At the same time, the official dollar rate rose by almost 6.5 rubles (to 62.7363 rubles.
At the same time, analysts from Goldman Sachs downgraded their ruble exchange rate forecast for 2015 to 69 rubles per dollar - in their opinion, in the first three months of the year, the exchange rate will be about 70 rubles, in the semi-annual range, the rate will be 65 rubles, and in the 12-month period - 60 rubles.
In the course of trading on January 13 at the stock exchange rate rose above 77 rubles, and the dollar soared above 66 rubles. In the future, these strips were broken (the euro rose above 78 rubles), but by the end of the week the ruble won back some losses - the euro exchange rate fell below 75 rubles, and the dollar fell below 65 rubles. At the opening of trading on Monday (19 January), foreign exchange rates also fell below these levels, which is explained by the stabilization of oil prices.
ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his review described the prospects for the Russian currency in the near future:
Despite the fact that rating agencies are downgrading Russia's ratings , representatives of the country's authorities (in particular, the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva, who is leaving her post), consider that “the main fall in the exchange rate of the ruble and world oil prices has already passed” (about the end of sharp jumps in the ruble exchange rate were also announced at the IMF). Accordingly, according to the position of officials, in the near future we can expect stabilization of the rate. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that his department could send up to 500 billion rubles from the Reserve Fund to support the national currency rate.
In the meantime, according to ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin, the dollar may equal the euro this year:
The past week was remembered by financiers of the whole world by a loud jump in the rate of the Swiss franc and the subsequent bankruptcy of a number of large Forex-players.
The decision of the National Bank of Switzerland to cancel the ceiling for the franc rate provoked a change of almost 30%. This led to huge losses for traders, and many companies engaged in the brokerage business in the Forex currency market were on the verge of bankruptcy.
Several large foreign exchange brokers lost all their capital due to customer losses — they lost so much money that losses had to be covered by the brokers capital. Losses are estimated in tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, and among the victims are well-known players in the Forex market, such as companies IG Group, FXCM, Excel Markets. In addition, the British daughter of the Russian company Alpari declared bankruptcy.
See also: How does Forex work and whether it is needed
The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants told about the consequences of these events in his weekly review of world markets:
At the beginning of last week, against the background of the depreciation of the ruble and oil prices, Russian stock indices also declined . In the future, the stabilization of oil prices and the corresponding rise in prices for shares of such companies as Gazprom and Lukoil led to the fact that the MICEX index “turned around” and began to grow (which did not prevent the RTS index from falling further).
Later in the beginning of the new week, the MICEX ruble index exceeded 1,600 points for the first time in more than a month, and the dollar RTS grew too - this was due to the growth of the majority of ruble prices for blue chips against the backdrop of stabilizing oil prices and delaying S & P’s decision by Russia’s rating until the end of January. At 11:45 Moscow time, the value of the MICEX index was 1,608.94 points (+ 1.1%), the RTS index - 780.16 points (+ 1.35%).
Vasily Oleinik describes the prospects of Russian stock indices in his review in the following way:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS On Tuesday, January 20, at 15.00 Moscow time, an Internet conference will be held on the trading of foreign securities on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange (for more details on how to buy stocks of famous Western companies in Russia, see our topic ).
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency markets
At the beginning of last week, the ruble was already routinely weakened - the official rate of the euro, announced by the Central Bank since January 13, rose by almost 6 rubles from the previous level (to 74.3551). At the same time, the official dollar rate rose by almost 6.5 rubles (to 62.7363 rubles.
At the same time, analysts from Goldman Sachs downgraded their ruble exchange rate forecast for 2015 to 69 rubles per dollar - in their opinion, in the first three months of the year, the exchange rate will be about 70 rubles, in the semi-annual range, the rate will be 65 rubles, and in the 12-month period - 60 rubles.
In the course of trading on January 13 at the stock exchange rate rose above 77 rubles, and the dollar soared above 66 rubles. In the future, these strips were broken (the euro rose above 78 rubles), but by the end of the week the ruble won back some losses - the euro exchange rate fell below 75 rubles, and the dollar fell below 65 rubles. At the opening of trading on Monday (19 January), foreign exchange rates also fell below these levels, which is explained by the stabilization of oil prices.
ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his review described the prospects for the Russian currency in the near future:
Payments for foreign debts of Russian companies in the first two months of this year are not so large, so this fact will not put pressure on the ruble. Quotes of “black gold” this week have practically reached the lows of the crisis of 2009, and the first signs of stabilization have been outlined so far. For the first time in many years, the spread between the Brent and WTI oil brands approached zero - this is another factor in favor of the fact that prices will soon find their bottom. It is the stabilization in the oil market that can now be viewed as the only factor that can support the ruble. If you now try to buy futures for Brent oil, then the stop can be placed near the $ 44 mark.
Despite the fact that rating agencies are downgrading Russia's ratings , representatives of the country's authorities (in particular, the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva, who is leaving her post), consider that “the main fall in the exchange rate of the ruble and world oil prices has already passed” (about the end of sharp jumps in the ruble exchange rate were also announced at the IMF). Accordingly, according to the position of officials, in the near future we can expect stabilization of the rate. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that his department could send up to 500 billion rubles from the Reserve Fund to support the national currency rate.
In the meantime, according to ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin, the dollar may equal the euro this year:
The rise of the Swiss franc and forex brokers bankruptcy
The past week was remembered by financiers of the whole world by a loud jump in the rate of the Swiss franc and the subsequent bankruptcy of a number of large Forex-players.
The decision of the National Bank of Switzerland to cancel the ceiling for the franc rate provoked a change of almost 30%. This led to huge losses for traders, and many companies engaged in the brokerage business in the Forex currency market were on the verge of bankruptcy.
Several large foreign exchange brokers lost all their capital due to customer losses — they lost so much money that losses had to be covered by the brokers capital. Losses are estimated in tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, and among the victims are well-known players in the Forex market, such as companies IG Group, FXCM, Excel Markets. In addition, the British daughter of the Russian company Alpari declared bankruptcy.
See also: How does Forex work and whether it is needed
The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants told about the consequences of these events in his weekly review of world markets:
The decision of the Swiss Central Bank plunged the market into shock - at the first moment the euro-franc collapsed from 1.2 to 0.8, from 1.02 to 0.70 the dollar-franc also flew away; of course, such levels are unreal - and soon the courses found support (the franc became much more expensive); the picture is the same as after the decisions of the Bank of Russia - queues in exchange offices, mega-spread, loss of guidelines and chaos; but at the same time bankruptcy or serious difficulties for the masses of brokers who did not expect such a trick. The euro-dollar collapsed to 1.1550 due to inertia, rebounded, fell to 1.15, etc .; Yen as a safe haven was also pretty banged up - in short, among the fans of the invisible hand of the market, idiocy seems to be contagious.
Stock markets
At the beginning of last week, against the background of the depreciation of the ruble and oil prices, Russian stock indices also declined . In the future, the stabilization of oil prices and the corresponding rise in prices for shares of such companies as Gazprom and Lukoil led to the fact that the MICEX index “turned around” and began to grow (which did not prevent the RTS index from falling further).
Later in the beginning of the new week, the MICEX ruble index exceeded 1,600 points for the first time in more than a month, and the dollar RTS grew too - this was due to the growth of the majority of ruble prices for blue chips against the backdrop of stabilizing oil prices and delaying S & P’s decision by Russia’s rating until the end of January. At 11:45 Moscow time, the value of the MICEX index was 1,608.94 points (+ 1.1%), the RTS index - 780.16 points (+ 1.35%).
Vasily Oleinik describes the prospects of Russian stock indices in his review in the following way:
From a technical point of view, as long as the Russian ruble MICEX index holds above the support range of 1500-1520 points, long-term investors should continue to hold previously open long positions, and it is better for speculators to work from buying on any corrections of 1-2%. So far, banks have no problems with ruble liquidity, so the stock and bond market may show signs of stabilization for some time. As before, the shares of the metallurgical oil and gas sector are in the greatest demand in the Russian market. If we see the closure of two days in a row on the MICEX index below 1,500 points, the technical picture will change in favor of the sellers. According to the RTS currency index, the technical picture does not change at all. Since July last year, the RTS index is still in a strong downward trend and so far the probability of further correction is very high. From the beginning of this year, for the second week in a row, the RTS currency index continues to be in negative territory.
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS On Tuesday, January 20, at 15.00 Moscow time, an Internet conference will be held on the trading of foreign securities on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange (for more details on how to buy stocks of famous Western companies in Russia, see our topic ).
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/375607/
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