What happened in the world of finance in a week # 6

Hi, Geektimes! In the new year we continue to publish reports on major events in the world of finance and in the stock market.



The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency markets

At the beginning of the last holiday week, the dollar rose sharply in exchange trading, exceeding the mark of 60 rubles (and the next day, 63 rubles). The euro also grew at the beginning of the week (up to 76 rubles), but subsequently declined, falling below 70 rubles.

However, the ruble strengthening did not continue for a long time - already at the beginning of this week, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 63 rubles, and the euro rose to 75 rubles. Traditionally, the ruble is declining following the fall in oil prices - on the morning of Monday, January 12, the cost of February futures for Brent crude oil was $ 49.03 a barrel.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs in their report stated that the price of oil in the first half of 2015 should remain at about $ 40 per barrel - OPEC countries need it to fight American competitors, with such cheap oil investment in the US shale industry will be reduced.



ITinvest chief economist Sergei Egishyants described the current state of affairs in his weekly review:

Brent collapsed at $ 49 a barrel, and WTI fell at $ 46. Supply is higher than demand, the gap is widening: Russia has produced a record amount of oil in the post-Soviet period, production in Iraq has been at its peak since 1980. Saud bend their line - cut prices for the US and Europe; their neighbors in the region did the same; June put options are already traded on the market with strikes of 20-30 bucks per barrel. The consequences of such a situation are ambiguous: in the US, the number of wells is not yet reduced quickly - but this winter, when most of the miners futures with which they hedged risks turn off, the process will accelerate sharply; in Canada, it is already strong (-19% of the wells in the last week), and their major producer Syncrude reduced production by 12% in December against November; Venezuelan president went on an Asian tour in search of money - the country on the verge of ruin.

The forecast for WTI oil prices for the next three months was lowered by Goldman Sachs to $ 41 per barrel (previously $ 70 per barrel), the forecast for Brent - to $ 42 (from $ 80).

For the Russian economy - all this is not the most good news , because even the most negative forecasts of domestic analysts operated on figures in the region of $ 60 per barrel.

ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his review dated January 5 described the situation with the fall in oil prices and its possible impact on the Russian currency:

If you look at last year's dynamics of Brent crude oil in rubles, it is perfectly clear that the weighted average rate was almost every month just above the 3,600 rubles mark, for which the Russian budget for 2015 was laid. At the moment, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has dropped to 3250 rubles in rubles, and the ruble price of a barrel of URALS has already reached 3000 rubles, which is at least 10% lower than the critical level at which the Russian budget will not be sequestered.

The range of fluctuations of oil quotations in the ruble equivalent may be short-term within the limits from 3,000 to 4,000 rubles, but the weighted average rate will continue to tend to around 3,500-3,600. Proceeding from this, it follows that at the current moment the ruble again has the potential for further decline and this potential is not small, of course, if a miracle does not happen, and oil prices will rise sharply.

Among other things, in its report, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted a decline in the value of the euro to the dollar in 2015. Dmitry Solodin, an ITinvest expert, agrees with this thesis:

Stock markets

The MICEX index on the basis of trading on January 8 rose by 4.5% to 1,547.39 points. The RTS index fell by 3.72% and amounted to 790.71 points ... However, already at the ninth number of trades the indices began to decline .



In the new week, the RTS index began to decline after the ruble (which fell due to cheap oil), while the MICEX index managed to maintain a positive trend.

ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik predicts the continuation of the multidirectional movement of the main Russian stock indexes:

As for the MICEX ruble index, of course, against the background of rising inflation, it will look a little better than the currency RTS, and many stocks of commodity companies against the backdrop of a falling ruble may continue to grow. If you rely on hyperinflation in Russia, then the MICEX index can take the path of the Argentine scenario and show growth no matter what by 100-200% per year, but so far we are not laying out such an outcome. But the RTS currency index in the first half of the year again has every chance to drop to the level of 500 points, and if it is broken, the next target will lie at around 300.

Investments in 2015

Vasily Oleinik also believes that in the difficult economic situation in Russia, the Central Bank may resort to issuing money as a tool. In his program, the expert discussed the issues of saving finances and investments in the coming year with the manager of financial assets, a columnist for the Russia 24 TV channel and Nikolai Korzhenevsky, a teacher at the HSE:



That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .