10 most interesting technologies of 2015
In the modern world, technologies are indicators of progress. Not without risk, technological breakthroughs promise solutions to the most pressing global problems of our time. Starting with cars that do not pollute the atmosphere and ending with chips that mimic the brain, a dozen technologies this year offer a glimpse into the future of innovation, aimed at improving lives, transforming industry and protecting the environment.
We were promised them for a long time. They have many advantages over electric and hydrocarbon machines. However, we only approached the moment when the industry is ready to release them into widespread production. Initially, prices for cars will be in the region of $ 70,000, but they should fall sharply with an increase in production over the next couple of years.
Unlike batteries, which need to be charged, fuel cells immediately generate energy. In practice, batteries and cells combine, and cells produce electricity, which is stored in batteries until the moment the motor needs it. Therefore, such hybrid cars can use energy recovery during braking.
Such cars are similar to ordinary ones - they pass up to 650 km on one gas station, and recharge in three minutes. But when hydrogen is exhausted, only water vapor is obtained.
')
There are several ways to produce hydrogen, avoiding carbon emissions. For example, the electrolysis of water, which is produced using energy derived from windmills and solar panels - although the energy efficiency of such a process is low. Hydrogen can also be obtained from water in high-temperature nuclear reactors or from fossil sources such as natural gas or coal, catching CO2 and isolating it.
In addition to the lack of production of cheap hydrogen on an industrial scale, the problem is the lack of infrastructure for its distribution. At the moment, transportation of hydrogen over long distances is uneconomical. However, innovative methods of storing hydrogen (for example, low pressure organic liquids) should soon reduce the cost of transportation and reduce the risks associated with storing hydrogen.
Such cars look promising as a replacement for gasoline and diesel vehicles. But this requires reliable and inexpensive production of hydrogen and its distribution over a large area.
Mankind has long dreamed of a world where robots perform various daily work. However, this future does not come. Robots work mainly in manufacturing and other controlled tasks.
The development of technology in robotics makes possible the interaction of man and machine. Robots in flexibility and adaptability are becoming more like human bodies. Robots have more opportunities when using cloud computing, instead of working autonomously.
The robots have moved from the assembly shops, for example, to farm fields, where automatic tractors operate using GPS. In Japan, nurse robots help people with disabilities.
In fact, robots are ideal for repetitive or dangerous tasks, they can work without rest and their maintenance costs less than a person’s salary. But in the future, robots are unlikely to completely replace a person - rather, they will work with him. Despite all the advances in artificial intelligence, people will need to control the work of robots.
There are fears that robots may deprive people of work. But from the experience of previous automation, it is clear that as a result, an increase in productivity led to an increase that benefited the economy. However, the next generation of robots will raise new issues in different areas - philosophy, anthropology and other aspects of human relationships with machines.
Plastics are divided into thermoplastics and thermosets. The first, when heated, reversibly pass into elastic and solid states. They make everything from toys to toilet seats. Since they can be melted down, they usually fall into the category of materials suitable for recycling. Reactoplasts can be formed only once, after which their molecular structure is established, which allows them to withstand heavy loads and temperatures.
Due to these characteristics, the latter are used in various fields, from mobile phones and printed circuit boards to the aerospace industry. But these same characteristics make them unsuitable for recycling. As a result, they end life in a landfill.
In 2014, a new class of reactoplast was opened, which can be recycled. They are called Polyhexahydrotriazine, or PHT. They can be dissolved in acid, breaking the chain of polymers, which can then be collected back.
Although no re-processing will be 100% effective, the industrial introduction of such polymers can lead to significant savings and a reduction in environmental pollution. We can expect the replacement of thermosets with such plastics in the next five years, and their use in almost all new products by 2025.
Regarding genetic modifications are constantly debating. But new technologies will allow direct editing of the genetic code of plants to give them the various properties we need.
Now this technology is based on the ability of agrobacterium tumefaciens bacteria to transfer the desired DNA. In the scientific community, everyone agrees that such genetic engineering is not at all more dangerous than ordinary selection. But lately more convenient technologies have appeared.
These are ZFN, TALENS and the CRISPR-Cas9 system - the protective mechanism of bacteria against viruses. It uses an RNA molecule to modify DNA. So you can turn off the unnecessary gene or change it in an manner indistinguishable from the natural mutation. Also, this system allows you to add new DNA sequences or whole genes.
Another technology is RNA interference in crops. It helps fight fungus, viruses and parasites, thus reducing the amount of pesticides required. For more than a decade, viral genes have been used in Hawaii to protect papayas from ring blotch. This technology can protect wheat, rice, potatoes and bananas from their specific diseases. These innovations will be especially useful for farmers managing small farms in developing countries.
Historically, the manufacture of any object was a process when unnecessary parts were cut off from a large blank. Today's technology allows you to produce things on the contrary, gradually adding the necessary ones.
3D printers allow you to produce things that are customized for a specific user, instead of the same items of mass production. For example, the company Invisalign thus produces virtually invisible braces to correct teeth. Other companies are engaged in printing cells or living tissues, skin, bones.
The next important step will be the possibility of manufacturing printed circuit boards and embedded electronics. 4D printers promise innovative products that adapt to the climate - clothes, shoes, or implants that adapt to the human body.
This technology is destroying established supply chains, but the possibilities for its use are constantly growing. In the next decade, explosive growth and the emergence of new opportunities and innovations in this technology are expected.
Simply put, AI is the science of using a computer in tasks that people can access. Now most smartphones recognize speech and images. Robo-mobiles and unmanned aerial vehicles are already being tested. Computer Watson defeated people in the intellectual game.
AI allows the computer to feel changes in the environment and respond to them. A new achievements of AI allows computers to learn independently, processing a large amount of information. For example, the NELL - Never-Ending Language Learning project from Carnegie Mellon University. This system not only reads web pages and builds semantic links, but tries to improve the reading and understanding of these facts in order to do it better in the future.
Like future robots, the future AI will handle some tasks better than humans. Robomobili will reduce the number of accidents, because the machines will not be subject to errors and distractions. Intelligent fact-processing systems will make predictions and diagnoses better than people.
Of course, AI has its own risks - for example, that the AI will decide to enslave people one day. Some experts take this risk seriously. In January 2015, they signed an open letter, the creation of which was led by the Institute for the Future of Life, in which they describe possible problems associated with AI. Changes in the economy associated with the introduction of intelligent computers can lead to increased social inequality and the disappearance of jobs. UAVs will replace couriers, and mobiles will be replaced by takists.
On the other hand, the emergence of AI will make more valuable such human capabilities as creativity, emotions, relationships. The growth of AI’s capabilities will raise issues related to what it means to be human, and increase the risks associated with diminishing differences between man and machine.
Traditional production collects raw materials and manufactures finished products in large factories. Then the finished product is distributed until it reaches the buyer. In the case of distributed production, raw materials and production methods are decentralized, and the final product is manufactured much closer to the customer.
The point is to replace the supply chain with digital information. For the manufacture of a chair instead of mining wood and re-making it into chairs at the factory, it would be possible to transfer the drawing of the chair to a local node, where the parts would be made using automatic milling machines. The final product would be collected in local workshops or by the user. According to this scheme, at least one company in the states is already operating - AtFAB.
Now approximately according to this scheme enthusiasts work with 3D-printers. This involves the collective work of many people who can work together to improve the product.
Distributed production will allow more efficient use of resources and generate less waste. It also lowers the barriers to entry to the market, reducing the capital required to exit. More importantly, it should minimize the environmental impact of production.
With this approach, traditional labor markets will disappear. There are risks - it will be more difficult to regulate and control what is produced remotely - for example, there is a danger that it will be possible to produce everything, from medical equipment to weapons. But not everything can be made this way, and traditional supply chains will not go anywhere.
Things like cars or smartphones will become less standardized. Already, the company Facit prints to customers at home to order. Production capabilities will evolve and adapt to markets and geographic features. In those places where deliveries do not reach the standard method now, the benefits of civilization will reach.
Drones have recently taken a strong (and controversial) position in military affairs. They are also used in agriculture, when shooting films and for various other purposes where inexpensive and extensive air observation can be useful. But for now they are controlled by people.
The next step is the appearance of automatic drones. They will need to scan the environment and respond to changing parameters. In nature, birds, fish and insects can get together in flocks, where each member reacts very quickly to the movements of its neighbors, with the result that the flock behaves like a single organism. It will be possible to emulate this behavior for drones.
Such drones will be able to perform tasks that are dangerous to people: checking power lines, urgent delivery of drugs. Delivery drones will be able to build the shortest route and bypass other flying machines and obstacles.
In January 2014, Intel and Ascending Technologies showed prototypes of mini-drones that flew around obstacles and people in their path. In fact, drones are robots that operate not in two, but in three dimensions.
Of course, the risk in the case of flying cars cannot be completely excluded. For ubiquitous cars, drones must learn to work in difficult conditions: at night, in a blizzard or in a dust storm. Unlike current mobile devices (which, in fact, are not mobile at all — we ourselves have to carry them!), Drones will be truly mobile devices and will be able to fly wherever people don’t get.
Even supercomputers today can not be held with the human brain. They work consistently and transfer data between the memory chips and the processor over the data bus. The brain has many internal connections, where the connections of logic and memory are billions of times more than in a computer. Neuromorphic chips are designed to process information in completely different ways than the current iron, and imitate the human brain.
This next step in computing technology will bring machine learning and data processing to a new level. The IBM TrueNorth chip, containing a million "neurons", the prototype of which was introduced in August 2014, may be hundreds of times ahead of modern CPUs in some tasks.
With such chips, drones will be able to better process data coming from outside, more intelligent cameras and smartphones will appear, and data processing will help uncover the secrets of financial markets or climate prediction. Computers will be able to learn and predict, and not just react to what is happening in programmed ways.
The first decoding of the 3.2 billion paired bases of the human genome DNA took many years and cost millions. Now your genome can be decoded in minutes, and it will cost only a few hundred. The result can be recorded on a flash drive or sent via the Internet.
Many diseases have genetic roots. Cancer is a prime example. With the decoding of genes in their hands, doctors will be able to prescribe the patient the best treatment, taking into account the genetic characteristics of the tumor. This possibility will bring closer and specialized medicine, in which therapies will be applied, specialized for specific patients.
Of course, for reasons of privacy, you will have to protect information related to the human genome. But the benefits should outweigh the risks - personalized treatment can help combat a host of diseases. due to genetic causes.
1. Cars on fuel cells
We were promised them for a long time. They have many advantages over electric and hydrocarbon machines. However, we only approached the moment when the industry is ready to release them into widespread production. Initially, prices for cars will be in the region of $ 70,000, but they should fall sharply with an increase in production over the next couple of years.
Unlike batteries, which need to be charged, fuel cells immediately generate energy. In practice, batteries and cells combine, and cells produce electricity, which is stored in batteries until the moment the motor needs it. Therefore, such hybrid cars can use energy recovery during braking.
Such cars are similar to ordinary ones - they pass up to 650 km on one gas station, and recharge in three minutes. But when hydrogen is exhausted, only water vapor is obtained.
')
There are several ways to produce hydrogen, avoiding carbon emissions. For example, the electrolysis of water, which is produced using energy derived from windmills and solar panels - although the energy efficiency of such a process is low. Hydrogen can also be obtained from water in high-temperature nuclear reactors or from fossil sources such as natural gas or coal, catching CO2 and isolating it.
In addition to the lack of production of cheap hydrogen on an industrial scale, the problem is the lack of infrastructure for its distribution. At the moment, transportation of hydrogen over long distances is uneconomical. However, innovative methods of storing hydrogen (for example, low pressure organic liquids) should soon reduce the cost of transportation and reduce the risks associated with storing hydrogen.
Such cars look promising as a replacement for gasoline and diesel vehicles. But this requires reliable and inexpensive production of hydrogen and its distribution over a large area.
2. Next generation robots
Mankind has long dreamed of a world where robots perform various daily work. However, this future does not come. Robots work mainly in manufacturing and other controlled tasks.
The development of technology in robotics makes possible the interaction of man and machine. Robots in flexibility and adaptability are becoming more like human bodies. Robots have more opportunities when using cloud computing, instead of working autonomously.
The robots have moved from the assembly shops, for example, to farm fields, where automatic tractors operate using GPS. In Japan, nurse robots help people with disabilities.
In fact, robots are ideal for repetitive or dangerous tasks, they can work without rest and their maintenance costs less than a person’s salary. But in the future, robots are unlikely to completely replace a person - rather, they will work with him. Despite all the advances in artificial intelligence, people will need to control the work of robots.
There are fears that robots may deprive people of work. But from the experience of previous automation, it is clear that as a result, an increase in productivity led to an increase that benefited the economy. However, the next generation of robots will raise new issues in different areas - philosophy, anthropology and other aspects of human relationships with machines.
3. Thermosetting plastic (thermoset)
Plastics are divided into thermoplastics and thermosets. The first, when heated, reversibly pass into elastic and solid states. They make everything from toys to toilet seats. Since they can be melted down, they usually fall into the category of materials suitable for recycling. Reactoplasts can be formed only once, after which their molecular structure is established, which allows them to withstand heavy loads and temperatures.
Due to these characteristics, the latter are used in various fields, from mobile phones and printed circuit boards to the aerospace industry. But these same characteristics make them unsuitable for recycling. As a result, they end life in a landfill.
In 2014, a new class of reactoplast was opened, which can be recycled. They are called Polyhexahydrotriazine, or PHT. They can be dissolved in acid, breaking the chain of polymers, which can then be collected back.
Although no re-processing will be 100% effective, the industrial introduction of such polymers can lead to significant savings and a reduction in environmental pollution. We can expect the replacement of thermosets with such plastics in the next five years, and their use in almost all new products by 2025.
4. Technologies of genetic manipulation
Regarding genetic modifications are constantly debating. But new technologies will allow direct editing of the genetic code of plants to give them the various properties we need.
Now this technology is based on the ability of agrobacterium tumefaciens bacteria to transfer the desired DNA. In the scientific community, everyone agrees that such genetic engineering is not at all more dangerous than ordinary selection. But lately more convenient technologies have appeared.
These are ZFN, TALENS and the CRISPR-Cas9 system - the protective mechanism of bacteria against viruses. It uses an RNA molecule to modify DNA. So you can turn off the unnecessary gene or change it in an manner indistinguishable from the natural mutation. Also, this system allows you to add new DNA sequences or whole genes.
Another technology is RNA interference in crops. It helps fight fungus, viruses and parasites, thus reducing the amount of pesticides required. For more than a decade, viral genes have been used in Hawaii to protect papayas from ring blotch. This technology can protect wheat, rice, potatoes and bananas from their specific diseases. These innovations will be especially useful for farmers managing small farms in developing countries.
5. 3D printers
Historically, the manufacture of any object was a process when unnecessary parts were cut off from a large blank. Today's technology allows you to produce things on the contrary, gradually adding the necessary ones.
3D printers allow you to produce things that are customized for a specific user, instead of the same items of mass production. For example, the company Invisalign thus produces virtually invisible braces to correct teeth. Other companies are engaged in printing cells or living tissues, skin, bones.
The next important step will be the possibility of manufacturing printed circuit boards and embedded electronics. 4D printers promise innovative products that adapt to the climate - clothes, shoes, or implants that adapt to the human body.
This technology is destroying established supply chains, but the possibilities for its use are constantly growing. In the next decade, explosive growth and the emergence of new opportunities and innovations in this technology are expected.
6. The emergence of artificial intelligence
Simply put, AI is the science of using a computer in tasks that people can access. Now most smartphones recognize speech and images. Robo-mobiles and unmanned aerial vehicles are already being tested. Computer Watson defeated people in the intellectual game.
AI allows the computer to feel changes in the environment and respond to them. A new achievements of AI allows computers to learn independently, processing a large amount of information. For example, the NELL - Never-Ending Language Learning project from Carnegie Mellon University. This system not only reads web pages and builds semantic links, but tries to improve the reading and understanding of these facts in order to do it better in the future.
Like future robots, the future AI will handle some tasks better than humans. Robomobili will reduce the number of accidents, because the machines will not be subject to errors and distractions. Intelligent fact-processing systems will make predictions and diagnoses better than people.
Of course, AI has its own risks - for example, that the AI will decide to enslave people one day. Some experts take this risk seriously. In January 2015, they signed an open letter, the creation of which was led by the Institute for the Future of Life, in which they describe possible problems associated with AI. Changes in the economy associated with the introduction of intelligent computers can lead to increased social inequality and the disappearance of jobs. UAVs will replace couriers, and mobiles will be replaced by takists.
On the other hand, the emergence of AI will make more valuable such human capabilities as creativity, emotions, relationships. The growth of AI’s capabilities will raise issues related to what it means to be human, and increase the risks associated with diminishing differences between man and machine.
7. Distributed production
Traditional production collects raw materials and manufactures finished products in large factories. Then the finished product is distributed until it reaches the buyer. In the case of distributed production, raw materials and production methods are decentralized, and the final product is manufactured much closer to the customer.
The point is to replace the supply chain with digital information. For the manufacture of a chair instead of mining wood and re-making it into chairs at the factory, it would be possible to transfer the drawing of the chair to a local node, where the parts would be made using automatic milling machines. The final product would be collected in local workshops or by the user. According to this scheme, at least one company in the states is already operating - AtFAB.
Now approximately according to this scheme enthusiasts work with 3D-printers. This involves the collective work of many people who can work together to improve the product.
Distributed production will allow more efficient use of resources and generate less waste. It also lowers the barriers to entry to the market, reducing the capital required to exit. More importantly, it should minimize the environmental impact of production.
With this approach, traditional labor markets will disappear. There are risks - it will be more difficult to regulate and control what is produced remotely - for example, there is a danger that it will be possible to produce everything, from medical equipment to weapons. But not everything can be made this way, and traditional supply chains will not go anywhere.
Things like cars or smartphones will become less standardized. Already, the company Facit prints to customers at home to order. Production capabilities will evolve and adapt to markets and geographic features. In those places where deliveries do not reach the standard method now, the benefits of civilization will reach.
8. Unmanned aerial vehicles
Drones have recently taken a strong (and controversial) position in military affairs. They are also used in agriculture, when shooting films and for various other purposes where inexpensive and extensive air observation can be useful. But for now they are controlled by people.
The next step is the appearance of automatic drones. They will need to scan the environment and respond to changing parameters. In nature, birds, fish and insects can get together in flocks, where each member reacts very quickly to the movements of its neighbors, with the result that the flock behaves like a single organism. It will be possible to emulate this behavior for drones.
Such drones will be able to perform tasks that are dangerous to people: checking power lines, urgent delivery of drugs. Delivery drones will be able to build the shortest route and bypass other flying machines and obstacles.
In January 2014, Intel and Ascending Technologies showed prototypes of mini-drones that flew around obstacles and people in their path. In fact, drones are robots that operate not in two, but in three dimensions.
Of course, the risk in the case of flying cars cannot be completely excluded. For ubiquitous cars, drones must learn to work in difficult conditions: at night, in a blizzard or in a dust storm. Unlike current mobile devices (which, in fact, are not mobile at all — we ourselves have to carry them!), Drones will be truly mobile devices and will be able to fly wherever people don’t get.
9. Neuromorphic systems
Even supercomputers today can not be held with the human brain. They work consistently and transfer data between the memory chips and the processor over the data bus. The brain has many internal connections, where the connections of logic and memory are billions of times more than in a computer. Neuromorphic chips are designed to process information in completely different ways than the current iron, and imitate the human brain.
This next step in computing technology will bring machine learning and data processing to a new level. The IBM TrueNorth chip, containing a million "neurons", the prototype of which was introduced in August 2014, may be hundreds of times ahead of modern CPUs in some tasks.
With such chips, drones will be able to better process data coming from outside, more intelligent cameras and smartphones will appear, and data processing will help uncover the secrets of financial markets or climate prediction. Computers will be able to learn and predict, and not just react to what is happening in programmed ways.
10. Digital genetics
The first decoding of the 3.2 billion paired bases of the human genome DNA took many years and cost millions. Now your genome can be decoded in minutes, and it will cost only a few hundred. The result can be recorded on a flash drive or sent via the Internet.
Many diseases have genetic roots. Cancer is a prime example. With the decoding of genes in their hands, doctors will be able to prescribe the patient the best treatment, taking into account the genetic characteristics of the tumor. This possibility will bring closer and specialized medicine, in which therapies will be applied, specialized for specific patients.
Of course, for reasons of privacy, you will have to protect information related to the human genome. But the benefits should outweigh the risks - personalized treatment can help combat a host of diseases. due to genetic causes.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/374729/
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