5 of the most accurate predictions of scientists of the past
We all know that it is impossible to predict the future. One can predict, assume, but make bold statements about achievements that were on the verge of science fiction, at least, unusual and deserves admiration. So, at one time, the best minds of the world made prophecies that have been confirmed relatively recently. And now we will talk about the five most accurate of them, which, one way or another, relate to modern information technologies.
In 1965, Intel founder Gordon Moore made a forecast for the 35th anniversary issue of Electronics Magazine regarding microelectronics progress over the next 10 years. In an article titled "Squeezing even more components into integrated circuits," Moore wrote that all new chip models appear about a year after their predecessors, and the number of transistors in them doubles. Based on this observation, he came to the conclusion that, while maintaining the same trend, the power of computing technology can grow exponentially in a short period of time. The forecast was so accurate that it grew into Moore's law. Ten years later, Moore made small changes to the law, saying that the number of transistors would increase every two years.
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On the graph below, you can observe the time dependence of the number of transistors on a microprocessor chip.
The vertical axis has a logarithmic scale, and the straight line corresponds to the exponential law. Surprisingly, the number of transistors is still increasing about twice every two years.
We all know science fiction writer Sir Arthur Clarke, who became famous for his novel "2001: A Space Odyssey." However, few people know that Clark, among other things, was also a scientist. So in 1945, in a letter to the editor of Wireless World, he described the idea that conventional geostationary satellites are ideal for telecommunication transmitters. Now the geostationary orbit is called the Clark Orbit.
Truly his potential in 1964, Clark showed in the BBC documentary video, where he describes possible life in the 21st century. Here are some of the words from this video: “What if we try to imagine the city the day after tomorrow, say, the year of two thousand? It seems to me that it will be completely different. In general, perhaps he will never exist. No, I do not think about the nuclear disaster and the new Stone Age, I think about the incredible breakthrough that will be made thanks to the discoveries in the field of communication. In particular, I speak about transistors, and first of all about satellite communications. These things will make possible a world in which we can instantly make contact with each other, wherever we are. We will be able to communicate with friends around the world, even without knowing where exactly a person is. Doing your business, being in Tahiti or Bali, as well as from London, may already be in this century (or maybe fifty years from now). You can control anything from anywhere in the world, regardless of distance. I will assume that someday a surgeon from Edinburgh will be able to perform an operation on the brain of a patient in New Zealand. When this time comes, the world will literally shrink to a single point, and the traditional role of cities as meeting places for people will no longer have any meaning. In general, people will no longer make business trips, they will be available anytime and anywhere. People will travel mostly not for money, but for pleasure. ”
In 1908, one of the most prominent scientists of the 20th century, Nikola Tesla, described his project regarding a wireless communication tower, an analogue of a modern cell tower. Unfortunately, the project was never implemented, but the idea itself, many years ahead of the event, is impressive today.
Here is what Tesla wrote in his work more than 100 years ago: “Once the project is completed, a business person can dictate instructions from New York, and they will immediately appear in his office in London or elsewhere. He will be able from his workplace to talk to any telephone subscriber on the globe. An inexpensive instrument, no more than a watch, will allow its owner to listen to music or songs anywhere, at sea or on land, by a political leader, an eminent scholar, or a sermon by a priest at a great distance. In the same way, any picture, sign, drawing or text can be transmitted. ”
American science fiction writer, popularizer of science and biochemist Isaac Asimov in 1964 in an interview for The New York Times described in detail the possible training on the Internet and suggested the existence of services like Wikipedia or Quora. In an interview, he also described the possible life in 2014, and more specifically: the appearance of miniature computers that will be used from lithium-ion batteries, the ability not only to hear, but also to see the interlocutor and much more.
Here is an excerpt from his interview about the electronic library: “In the future, computers will be connected to a giant library, where everyone can ask any question and get an answer to it, as well as get background material about what is interesting to him directly. And no matter how old the user is and how silly his question will seem, he will be able to find the answer to it. And he will be able to do this in his own home, with his own speed, his own way, in his own time. Then everyone will enjoy the learning process. After all, what is called education now is in fact violence. Everyone is forced to learn the same thing, at the same time, at the same speed and in the same place - in the classroom. But all people are different! For some, this process is too fast, for someone too slow, for someone it's just not the right way. But give them a chance as an elective to follow their hobbies. For the first time, there will be no intermediary between the source of information and the consumer of information. ”
Few people know that the famous physicist who created the gas law Robert Boyle possessed one of the most extraordinary and insightful minds of the seventeenth century.
After the death of the scientist in 1691, his handwritten text was discovered, which contained 24 predictions made during the period of scientific activity. Most of them have come true now. Take at least the replacement of teeth and organ transplantation, as well as the appearance of scuba gear. But the most interesting predictions of Boyle were in the field of genetic engineering and nanotechnology. His ideas concerned the transmutation of animals and plants, the creation of sleeping pills and artificial simulators, as well as drugs that increase the performance of the human brain. Now the best minds of the world are working on this, and who knows, maybe even more predictions of the scientist will come true in the near future.
Gordon Moore Prediction of Computer Performance
In 1965, Intel founder Gordon Moore made a forecast for the 35th anniversary issue of Electronics Magazine regarding microelectronics progress over the next 10 years. In an article titled "Squeezing even more components into integrated circuits," Moore wrote that all new chip models appear about a year after their predecessors, and the number of transistors in them doubles. Based on this observation, he came to the conclusion that, while maintaining the same trend, the power of computing technology can grow exponentially in a short period of time. The forecast was so accurate that it grew into Moore's law. Ten years later, Moore made small changes to the law, saying that the number of transistors would increase every two years.
')
On the graph below, you can observe the time dependence of the number of transistors on a microprocessor chip.
The vertical axis has a logarithmic scale, and the straight line corresponds to the exponential law. Surprisingly, the number of transistors is still increasing about twice every two years.
Arthur Clark on satellites and the Internet
We all know science fiction writer Sir Arthur Clarke, who became famous for his novel "2001: A Space Odyssey." However, few people know that Clark, among other things, was also a scientist. So in 1945, in a letter to the editor of Wireless World, he described the idea that conventional geostationary satellites are ideal for telecommunication transmitters. Now the geostationary orbit is called the Clark Orbit.
Truly his potential in 1964, Clark showed in the BBC documentary video, where he describes possible life in the 21st century. Here are some of the words from this video: “What if we try to imagine the city the day after tomorrow, say, the year of two thousand? It seems to me that it will be completely different. In general, perhaps he will never exist. No, I do not think about the nuclear disaster and the new Stone Age, I think about the incredible breakthrough that will be made thanks to the discoveries in the field of communication. In particular, I speak about transistors, and first of all about satellite communications. These things will make possible a world in which we can instantly make contact with each other, wherever we are. We will be able to communicate with friends around the world, even without knowing where exactly a person is. Doing your business, being in Tahiti or Bali, as well as from London, may already be in this century (or maybe fifty years from now). You can control anything from anywhere in the world, regardless of distance. I will assume that someday a surgeon from Edinburgh will be able to perform an operation on the brain of a patient in New Zealand. When this time comes, the world will literally shrink to a single point, and the traditional role of cities as meeting places for people will no longer have any meaning. In general, people will no longer make business trips, they will be available anytime and anywhere. People will travel mostly not for money, but for pleasure. ”
Nikola Tesla on cellular communications and smart watches
In 1908, one of the most prominent scientists of the 20th century, Nikola Tesla, described his project regarding a wireless communication tower, an analogue of a modern cell tower. Unfortunately, the project was never implemented, but the idea itself, many years ahead of the event, is impressive today.
Here is what Tesla wrote in his work more than 100 years ago: “Once the project is completed, a business person can dictate instructions from New York, and they will immediately appear in his office in London or elsewhere. He will be able from his workplace to talk to any telephone subscriber on the globe. An inexpensive instrument, no more than a watch, will allow its owner to listen to music or songs anywhere, at sea or on land, by a political leader, an eminent scholar, or a sermon by a priest at a great distance. In the same way, any picture, sign, drawing or text can be transmitted. ”
Isaac Asimov on e-library
American science fiction writer, popularizer of science and biochemist Isaac Asimov in 1964 in an interview for The New York Times described in detail the possible training on the Internet and suggested the existence of services like Wikipedia or Quora. In an interview, he also described the possible life in 2014, and more specifically: the appearance of miniature computers that will be used from lithium-ion batteries, the ability not only to hear, but also to see the interlocutor and much more.
Here is an excerpt from his interview about the electronic library: “In the future, computers will be connected to a giant library, where everyone can ask any question and get an answer to it, as well as get background material about what is interesting to him directly. And no matter how old the user is and how silly his question will seem, he will be able to find the answer to it. And he will be able to do this in his own home, with his own speed, his own way, in his own time. Then everyone will enjoy the learning process. After all, what is called education now is in fact violence. Everyone is forced to learn the same thing, at the same time, at the same speed and in the same place - in the classroom. But all people are different! For some, this process is too fast, for someone too slow, for someone it's just not the right way. But give them a chance as an elective to follow their hobbies. For the first time, there will be no intermediary between the source of information and the consumer of information. ”
Robert Boyle on nanotechnology
Few people know that the famous physicist who created the gas law Robert Boyle possessed one of the most extraordinary and insightful minds of the seventeenth century.
After the death of the scientist in 1691, his handwritten text was discovered, which contained 24 predictions made during the period of scientific activity. Most of them have come true now. Take at least the replacement of teeth and organ transplantation, as well as the appearance of scuba gear. But the most interesting predictions of Boyle were in the field of genetic engineering and nanotechnology. His ideas concerned the transmutation of animals and plants, the creation of sleeping pills and artificial simulators, as well as drugs that increase the performance of the human brain. Now the best minds of the world are working on this, and who knows, maybe even more predictions of the scientist will come true in the near future.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/374687/
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