The next hundred years in a hundred words + contest with drawing an invitation to Habrahabr
Kevin Kelly is co-founder and editor-in-chief of Wired, visionary, author of the New Rules for the New Economy and Out of Control books.
To describe 100 years of the future in 100 words - an interesting and creative task was set for a wide audience of the Internet about 3 years ago. Today we publish a free translation of Kevin Kelly 's article on the results of the competition, and we also decided to hold our competition among readers. The main prize in our case will be an invitation to Habrahabr. Full competition rules can be found at the end of the article.
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Haiku about the desired future
I recently posted a tweet contest and received 23 replies, which I publish (with permission) below. I will tell you who I chose as the winner a little later, but first I would like to share in you what I understood.
Compressing something as vague and indefinite as the 100-word future is a hard task. Almost like writing poems. The future in 100 years is so far away from us that we have to invent it. But the most difficult part is to imagine the desired scenario.
It all started with my dissatisfaction with the vision of our future, which is now available in films and science fiction. For the most part they are dystopia (anti-utopia). What is the future of Hollywood movies in which you would like to live? I could not do that. Well, maybe I could be persuaded to travel to Starship Enterprise, but what about the future on our home planet? Where will we all live in the next century? Minority Report? Elysium? Battlestar Galactica? These repulsive screenplays of the future, which we hope will never materialize. They may contain one or two great innovations that we would like, but, in general, the culture of these future worlds is broken, it is frightening, one-sided and completely unattractive. Even if you hit the 1% happy population.
I do not ask to write a utopia. In fact, a world where everything works fine, without side effects, is a kind of hell. I believe in progress, gradual improvement with the manifestation of a negative, reverse side of the coin, in a gradual approach to a world that is desirable, despite all its many flaws. Such a future would create many unexpected misfortunes and unfair distributions, but on the whole, there would be more positives.
Perhaps such a pragmatic improvement from day to day is so boring and banal that it cannot inspire us. We cross the continent for 5 hours while watching movies, ask a question to the device in your pocket and get an answer, but no longer admire these wonderful abilities. Each such "magic" was created in small steps, but we lost the ability to rejoice in every little improvement.
It is also possible that in the next century the desired future is impossible. We can not imagine a working scenario of the technological future, because this will never happen. Hollywood was right. The future means that we are moving backwards, destroying each other’s lives, or hiding in shelters.
Yes, a dystopian future is likely, but not necessarily. However, the path to dystopia will be accelerated and ensured by our lack of an imaginary alternative. Without a vision of the desired future, we can hardly move towards it.
If the desired future is possible, we must present it.
So my question is about finding the desired future scenario. The number of scientists and technologists who were motivated by science fiction in the past is legion. Many researchers, unwilling to speculate, admit that they began their activities, trying to implement a fantastic idea, such as a Star Trek tricorder or an anti-gravity beam. In fact, the influence of science fiction scenarios on science is terribly underestimated in official reports and in culture in general. The stories we make up about the future greatly influence our future.
At the moment, we do not have a common positive vision for tomorrow. It is also difficult for me to describe a plausible future for the whole of society in 100 years, considering what is happening today. I can imagine that the individual phenomena of the future will be positive - a continuous, cheap connection in real time between all people or the use of solar energy - but it is difficult to understand how all these threads are intertwined in scenarios of climate change, population decline, habitat loss, overloading human attention, replacing human labor with robots and speeding up the development of AI.
I needed help. Perhaps my “blindness” is caused by a lack of my imagination. So I sent my tweet to the cloud of wisdom and quickly received some alternative scenarios.
Checking the 23 submitted scenarios made it possible to highlight common dreams. The most repeated hope / expectation is a new source of energy. Instead of fossil fuels, we expect that in 100 years we will rely on solar energy and fusion, which will be cheap and clean. Secondly, the in-depth fusion of the digital and physical world into the entire Internet of everything. The third most common vision is the flowering of artificial intelligence and robots that turn our economy into one, filled with creative work / play. The fourth small area is the spread of education in new modes, with coverage throughout the world and throughout life.
This is a good start. I certainly would like that. Four trends are consistent and related. However, do not forget about the specifics and the corresponding side effects. But yes, I gave them only 100 words! This tiny form of narration can contain only a few headlines, so I have to applaud each of the participants for trying them. My choice of the most plausible vision of the future I dream of is the script of John Hanacek. I think I would like to live there, and I think that it can be true after 100 years. My 100 dollars go to him.
Scenarios sent to Kevin Kelly contest (no translation)
A New Energy Source
Blockchain-based technologies and structures accomplish what most major institutions did. Solar power runs everything as it is 100X cheaper than alternatives. As an energy cost, it is a cost-saving, multi-story indoor “farms”, conserving water, the most precious resource. CO2 sequestration also becomes a fuel source, albeit subsidized. We buy self-driving car service subscriptions. Nicotine and sugar are Schedule I and II narcotics. It is a kind of experience that you can use. - Leonard Kish
Cleaned streets, fused into city planning, food production and manufacturing. Polar shield arrays soak and UV, beating weirding, concealing polar bear our soul needs. Hybrid solar-hydrogen motors make us free and clean. Solid circuit relay probes take this web to deep space, making nerves for this place. We can’t make it out of our country. When the sun rises each day, we know okay. - Chris McCann
A century hence heaping plastic molds, for example, heathing plastic A techno-primitivism, where a new eden, a cornucopia, a garden earth. Our ancient foes flora and fauna kept now as a momento of our past. But the barefooted first steps of post-scarcity. A feast for the touch. A miraculous biology. - Sean Moriva
2030: Emerging emerged. We've got the wind in our sails. Billions of people will be able to quickly and efficiently. 2060: Biodiversity blossoms. Consciousness comes under direct control. You can physically live on Mars, Antarctica, New Atlantis or in the asteroid belt. For many years 2090: Boredom unthinkable. Conscious population: 10 ^ 20. Biome restored. 2114: Begin Second Earth. - Luke Cockerham
The water will be blessed by abundant free / cheap water and free / cheap energy. Dr Dan Nocera (Harvard). Dr Pollack's re-discovery of the water for the 4th phase of the water. The EZ is powered by infrared energy. Why don't we see this on sale today? It settled science, Dr Nocera has been working to perfect an artificial leaf. His leaf, when immersed in water and illuminated, breaks down. Today this leaf is 7 times more efficient than a natural one. Why? Again its a matter of getting it to scale. - Chuck Petras
Solar and fusion have eliminated energy from most practical considerations. Due to automation, only 20% of the population is employed, mainly in creative jobs. It has been exponentially world GDP. Large projects are restoring ecological damage. Africa and the Middle East are rapidly developing. Education has been reformed to help people to achieve life satisfaction and enjoyment. The main goal is to have a breakthrough. - Douglas Summers-Stay
Rise of Artificial Intelligence and Artificially Intelligent Robots.
Creative Work / Play
Physical and virtual realities are meshed together with no distinction. Ideas are given sovereignty with their creators rewarded fairly and directly. The world itself doesn’t have to be found out. It is a matter of fact. “Human” has taken on flourishing new meanings. Imagination has been unleashed upon. - John Hanacek
I worried I'd never be as well-off as my parents. I never expected this. We call it “the Euphoric Age”. It is a super description of what happens when you make a trade judgment for algorithmic optimization. Took a while. I panicked when my doctor got it. Money quickly got tight. There was always enough to eat, though. The air got cleaner; the Internet and (Amazon) PackageNet got even faster. We've stopped looking for things to do. And started our lives. Together. - Andy Hickl
You will be able to take care of your skin. The bathtub will be enclosed in the atmosphere. Take a bath again. It will make it possible to choose. You will eat all the food you like. 80% choose self-driven cars. People will work 4 hours / week. No Police and no Politics. - Augusto Camargo
Immortality had been focused on short term thinking. A new era of responsibility had dawned. There have been a lot of changes and changes that have been made. This is what we have defined. It wasn’t even before it was taken. - Jean Rintoul
It is necessary to make sure that it is fulfilled. It would be legal for them to save their money. Take away risks. Your early 20s will not go to college. Algorithms will analyze statements made by public figures, pointing out fallacies as an impartial third party. - Michael Elias @ harmonylion1
2114 AD. Post-scarcity is reality; all wants, all needs are met with zero marginal cost. Aging is optional and trivially repaired. There are also a variety of resources that can be used as a transport system. Nations have passed and splintered into a network of megacities. Pre-industrial state is nearing completion. Humans have been splintered into a spectrum, from none to total. Relationships and many real-world relationships. - Mark Bruce
Food is the same, but not genetically engineered. Air travel becomes extremely expensive. Companies make money from information asymmetry and selling secrets. It’s a sensational processing power (ie, to be a super human). A startup incubator becomes the top # 1 university in the world. Drivers need to enable self-piloting on highway. A smart gadget company owns 50% data traffic of the world. It is hard to tell you if you’re a person. - Jackie Lee
A guaranteed income brings the prosperity to the joke of China in the aftermath of the robotic manufacturing revolution. It has been declining to demand that it has reached the 2000th. It is a quixotic living arrangement. Ubiquitous micromanufacturing. Extinction is off the table. Mars and the Jovian moons beckon. - Eric Meltzer
A Holistic Internet of Everything
He has reached this level in his data advancement of self-replicating and -arranging nano-bits. What was once inert atoms of glass, steel, wood, concrete and plastics, are now richly infused with information technology. It can be understood. It starts with a living room morphing into the living room. In the urban area of ​​their population. - Sean Fright
I like the heart of the anti-vandalism. Consider your owner's permission. If he is a young man, he will be fined. It is not always the case, but it is not the case. Etc. - Rodney Hoffman
It’s not a problem. It makes it possible to make informed decisions on how to make money at. He has a lot to do with it. They can’t be a frightful disservice of their world. It can be quantified so that it can be eradicated. Understanding of personal vs. personal public information, safeguard against infringement. - Dallas John Slieker
I usually sleep with my implant on. It makes me diffuse anxiety, heightening creativity. I wake up naturally, full of energy, excited to start my day. My implant automatically quiets for my morning toilet. I cook breakfast the old fashioned way. Boil an egg, squeeze fresh juice. I made yesterday still has a wonderfully crunchy crust. I’m listening to my thoughts. Then I get up to work. - Steve Hoefer
If you read our “Galactic Encyclopedia” you would read: “Terrestrial bipedal omnivores. Created vast cities and virtual worlds rich with information. Although it was impressive, they could not understand themselves. ” If you can currently imagine. For the first time, it would be a reflection of our fundamental innovations and it would be the right direction. - Oliver Carefull @ smollie1
Imagine a network of distributed networks with preset standards. Where important parts of the infrastructure are locally maintained. Power, water, sewer, data, transport. Combination of global resource markets and local manufacturing. It’s a little bit different. Distributed manufacturing, local power making, delivery of goods. Clever people online to offer aid. Open engineering. Open communities. Mesh networks. Only the most basic units are standardized. A “lego” economy. - Laston Kirkland
Education in new modes
The survivors of climate change, the heartbroken for the next iteration of homo. In the case of compassion and generosity, it becomes a heritable traits. Systems, culture, commerce, and business administration have been explicitly providing well-being for all. Knowledge sharing is revered as the most celebrated human propensity. This results in a self-aware global cerebral cortex; humanity functioning as neurons, Scientists learn to encode a puzzle. - Alan Chamberlain
I can not be to you. This is the “difference”, it would be desirable, technological future. McLuhan suggests, our connected technology, will be one of the tranquility and uniformity. I’m not one Of conflicts, or stop all conflicts. Aaron Griffin: [...] If you’re trying to hide the complexity of the system, you’ll end up with a more complex system ”- Andrew Stace
Technological abbreviation replacing superstition, recurrence of sectarianism and nationalism, thus shrinking population through volition, not war, famine, pestilence. It has been noted that it’s not a problem to make a catastrophic catastrophe. Reducing health care costs. These steps are a plus for the environment. - Allan Rubin
Blockchain-based technologies and structures accomplish what most major institutions did. Solar power runs everything as it is 100X cheaper than alternatives. As an energy cost, it is a cost-saving, multi-story indoor “farms”, conserving water, the most precious resource. CO2 sequestration also becomes a fuel source, albeit subsidized. We buy self-driving car service subscriptions. Nicotine and sugar are Schedule I and II narcotics. It is a kind of experience that you can use. - Leonard Kish
Cleaned streets, fused into city planning, food production and manufacturing. Polar shield arrays soak and UV, beating weirding, concealing polar bear our soul needs. Hybrid solar-hydrogen motors make us free and clean. Solid circuit relay probes take this web to deep space, making nerves for this place. We can’t make it out of our country. When the sun rises each day, we know okay. - Chris McCann
A century hence heaping plastic molds, for example, heathing plastic A techno-primitivism, where a new eden, a cornucopia, a garden earth. Our ancient foes flora and fauna kept now as a momento of our past. But the barefooted first steps of post-scarcity. A feast for the touch. A miraculous biology. - Sean Moriva
2030: Emerging emerged. We've got the wind in our sails. Billions of people will be able to quickly and efficiently. 2060: Biodiversity blossoms. Consciousness comes under direct control. You can physically live on Mars, Antarctica, New Atlantis or in the asteroid belt. For many years 2090: Boredom unthinkable. Conscious population: 10 ^ 20. Biome restored. 2114: Begin Second Earth. - Luke Cockerham
The water will be blessed by abundant free / cheap water and free / cheap energy. Dr Dan Nocera (Harvard). Dr Pollack's re-discovery of the water for the 4th phase of the water. The EZ is powered by infrared energy. Why don't we see this on sale today? It settled science, Dr Nocera has been working to perfect an artificial leaf. His leaf, when immersed in water and illuminated, breaks down. Today this leaf is 7 times more efficient than a natural one. Why? Again its a matter of getting it to scale. - Chuck Petras
Solar and fusion have eliminated energy from most practical considerations. Due to automation, only 20% of the population is employed, mainly in creative jobs. It has been exponentially world GDP. Large projects are restoring ecological damage. Africa and the Middle East are rapidly developing. Education has been reformed to help people to achieve life satisfaction and enjoyment. The main goal is to have a breakthrough. - Douglas Summers-Stay
Rise of Artificial Intelligence and Artificially Intelligent Robots.
Creative Work / Play
Physical and virtual realities are meshed together with no distinction. Ideas are given sovereignty with their creators rewarded fairly and directly. The world itself doesn’t have to be found out. It is a matter of fact. “Human” has taken on flourishing new meanings. Imagination has been unleashed upon. - John Hanacek
I worried I'd never be as well-off as my parents. I never expected this. We call it “the Euphoric Age”. It is a super description of what happens when you make a trade judgment for algorithmic optimization. Took a while. I panicked when my doctor got it. Money quickly got tight. There was always enough to eat, though. The air got cleaner; the Internet and (Amazon) PackageNet got even faster. We've stopped looking for things to do. And started our lives. Together. - Andy Hickl
You will be able to take care of your skin. The bathtub will be enclosed in the atmosphere. Take a bath again. It will make it possible to choose. You will eat all the food you like. 80% choose self-driven cars. People will work 4 hours / week. No Police and no Politics. - Augusto Camargo
Immortality had been focused on short term thinking. A new era of responsibility had dawned. There have been a lot of changes and changes that have been made. This is what we have defined. It wasn’t even before it was taken. - Jean Rintoul
It is necessary to make sure that it is fulfilled. It would be legal for them to save their money. Take away risks. Your early 20s will not go to college. Algorithms will analyze statements made by public figures, pointing out fallacies as an impartial third party. - Michael Elias @ harmonylion1
2114 AD. Post-scarcity is reality; all wants, all needs are met with zero marginal cost. Aging is optional and trivially repaired. There are also a variety of resources that can be used as a transport system. Nations have passed and splintered into a network of megacities. Pre-industrial state is nearing completion. Humans have been splintered into a spectrum, from none to total. Relationships and many real-world relationships. - Mark Bruce
Food is the same, but not genetically engineered. Air travel becomes extremely expensive. Companies make money from information asymmetry and selling secrets. It’s a sensational processing power (ie, to be a super human). A startup incubator becomes the top # 1 university in the world. Drivers need to enable self-piloting on highway. A smart gadget company owns 50% data traffic of the world. It is hard to tell you if you’re a person. - Jackie Lee
A guaranteed income brings the prosperity to the joke of China in the aftermath of the robotic manufacturing revolution. It has been declining to demand that it has reached the 2000th. It is a quixotic living arrangement. Ubiquitous micromanufacturing. Extinction is off the table. Mars and the Jovian moons beckon. - Eric Meltzer
A Holistic Internet of Everything
He has reached this level in his data advancement of self-replicating and -arranging nano-bits. What was once inert atoms of glass, steel, wood, concrete and plastics, are now richly infused with information technology. It can be understood. It starts with a living room morphing into the living room. In the urban area of ​​their population. - Sean Fright
I like the heart of the anti-vandalism. Consider your owner's permission. If he is a young man, he will be fined. It is not always the case, but it is not the case. Etc. - Rodney Hoffman
It’s not a problem. It makes it possible to make informed decisions on how to make money at. He has a lot to do with it. They can’t be a frightful disservice of their world. It can be quantified so that it can be eradicated. Understanding of personal vs. personal public information, safeguard against infringement. - Dallas John Slieker
I usually sleep with my implant on. It makes me diffuse anxiety, heightening creativity. I wake up naturally, full of energy, excited to start my day. My implant automatically quiets for my morning toilet. I cook breakfast the old fashioned way. Boil an egg, squeeze fresh juice. I made yesterday still has a wonderfully crunchy crust. I’m listening to my thoughts. Then I get up to work. - Steve Hoefer
If you read our “Galactic Encyclopedia” you would read: “Terrestrial bipedal omnivores. Created vast cities and virtual worlds rich with information. Although it was impressive, they could not understand themselves. ” If you can currently imagine. For the first time, it would be a reflection of our fundamental innovations and it would be the right direction. - Oliver Carefull @ smollie1
Imagine a network of distributed networks with preset standards. Where important parts of the infrastructure are locally maintained. Power, water, sewer, data, transport. Combination of global resource markets and local manufacturing. It’s a little bit different. Distributed manufacturing, local power making, delivery of goods. Clever people online to offer aid. Open engineering. Open communities. Mesh networks. Only the most basic units are standardized. A “lego” economy. - Laston Kirkland
Education in new modes
The survivors of climate change, the heartbroken for the next iteration of homo. In the case of compassion and generosity, it becomes a heritable traits. Systems, culture, commerce, and business administration have been explicitly providing well-being for all. Knowledge sharing is revered as the most celebrated human propensity. This results in a self-aware global cerebral cortex; humanity functioning as neurons, Scientists learn to encode a puzzle. - Alan Chamberlain
I can not be to you. This is the “difference”, it would be desirable, technological future. McLuhan suggests, our connected technology, will be one of the tranquility and uniformity. I’m not one Of conflicts, or stop all conflicts. Aaron Griffin: [...] If you’re trying to hide the complexity of the system, you’ll end up with a more complex system ”- Andrew Stace
Technological abbreviation replacing superstition, recurrence of sectarianism and nationalism, thus shrinking population through volition, not war, famine, pestilence. It has been noted that it’s not a problem to make a catastrophic catastrophe. Reducing health care costs. These steps are a plus for the environment. - Allan Rubin
The purpose of this fantasy was to help me visualize a holistic, intelligent future that I would like to strive for. It helped. After 23 scenarios, I add my 100-word hockey, written under the inspiration of common hope.
2121: 4 billion people, 85% of the urban population. The boom of cities, the suburbs are empty. Agricultural areas are reduced due to GMOs. Nature is controlled quantitatively; The area of ​​gardening of the earth extends by means of genetic engineering. Solar energy and thermonuclear fusion generate cheap electricity. Climate change is adapted. The creative middle class is a new, globally mobile majority. Robotic piloting makes travel widely available everywhere. The environment and cultural-historical tourism are the main sources of income for the poorest. Robots have captured the remaining hard-working jobs in Asia and Africa. The Internet of all has physically spread everywhere. Universal library and universal continuing education for free. All people are always online. The interface for the brain is a portable device. Health trackers track quantitative “me” for personalized medicine. Required technically competent managers.
Cloud4Y contest terms:
- Describe how technology has influenced the future in 100 years.
- The script must be left in the comments under this post. Each user has the right to register a read & comment-account, comments of which fall into pre-moderation. We will miss all your suggestions, in our opinion, in accordance with the rules of Geektimes.
- The size of the script from 100 to 200 words.
- The scenario can be both positive and realistic or pessimistic.
- Priority is given to scenarios that take into account how real-life trends are now increasing or decreasing their influence when interacting with each other.
- The winner will be announced on October 2.
We set ourselves a difficult task, choosing just one scenario was not at all easy.
Thank you all for participating and for creatively spent time. We were pleasantly surprised
geektimes.ru/post/293561/#comment_10344709 - mention providers in the future,
geektimes.ru/post/293561/#comment_10345737 - verses
and many other scenarios.
In the end, we chose 2:
geektimes.ru/post/293561/#comment_10345419 - the funniest, but, as it seems, with some truth about the future;
geektimes.ru/post/293561/#comment_10346031 - the trends and pace of development, in our opinion, the most realistic.
The authors of these two posts receive invitations. To receive, send us a personal message a link to your Habrahabr profile, to which we will present an invitation.
PS If you read this post in 2117, you can accurately determine who was right. It's time to think about 2217.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/373853/
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