Doomsday clock approached another 30 seconds to midnight

On January 26, 2017, the Committee on the Science and Security of the American “Bulletin of Nuclear Scientists” translated the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to midnight. Thus, before the nuclear war on Earth, symbolic 2.5 minutes remained - this is the minimum figure since 1953, when the USSR and the US experienced hydrogen bombs.

Last year, the clock did not move from the point, and two years ago, the hands moved from 5 minutes to 3 minutes.
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The United States and Russia - countries that own more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons - remain confronted in many world arenas, experts write, from Syria and Ukraine to the borders of NATO. Both countries continue large-scale modernization of nuclear weapons, while there are no signs of serious negotiations on arms control.

Commenting on the translation of the doomsday clock, the experts noted that new global threats were added to the existential threats of nuclear war and global climate change: “An attack began on trusted sources of information with the spread of fake news, and the words were used in an unceremonious and often reckless way”, - said in a statement by scientists. This increases the risk of a world war as a result of chance or misunderstanding.



Scientists recall some of the alarming symptoms of an unstable situation in the world due to informational turbulence and fake news. For example, Pakistan’s foreign minister hinted at Twitter on the use of nuclear weapons after the news of Israel. As it turned out later, the news was fabricated.

Russia is building new mine-based missiles, nuclear submarines of the new Borey class with ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, resuming construction of combat railroad missile systems and modernizing other ballistic missiles.

The United States announced plans to modernize each component of the nuclear triad (bombers, land-based missiles, submarines) and increase the arsenal - adding new extended-range missiles.

The DPRK conducted the fourth and fifth underground tests of a nuclear bomb (in January and September) and made it clear that it continues to develop means of delivery. It is quite possible that the DPRK will finish the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles in a few years, the North Korean leader said in a New Year message from the nation.

Tensions persist between India and Pakistan. Both countries are building up their nuclear arsenal, and China is helping Pakistan to build a platform for nuclear-powered submarines.

At the same time, the rest of the countries that do not possess nuclear weapons are preparing to adopt a resolution in the UN to ban nuclear weapons. But this resolution will have a purely symbolic character, since 38 countries will not sign it, including none of the nuclear countries.

Despite the agreements reached by countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, real progress in this direction has not yet been observed. Emissions in 2016 were the same as in the previous year, so the planet continues to heat up. To avoid an environmental catastrophe in the future, urgent measures are required.

Everything that is happening, in the opinion of the Committee on Science and Security of Nuclear Scientists, indicates a special need for world leaders to remain calm and not increase tensions that can lead to war by chance or miscalculation.

Scientists say that in 2016 the situation has become complicated due to the increased level of nationalism in different countries. During the election campaign, Donald Trump allowed himself dangerous comments on the use and improvement of nuclear weapons and expressed a lack of faith in scientific progress regarding scientific consensus on global warming.

The committee emphasizes that the statements of one person, especially one who has not yet taken office, have never historically influenced the translation of the doomsday clock hands, because they evaluate long-term risks. But now it should be noted that the current presidential campaign, with the intervention of the Russian government to undermine confidence in fundamental democratic values ​​and the information society, calls into question the future of American democracy and the intentions of Russia. As a result, the world has become a more dangerous place than a year ago. For this reason, it was decided to move the hands of Doomsday Clock by 30 seconds. At the moment, they indicate a time in 2 minutes 30 seconds before midnight.



Translating arrows for less than a minute happens for the first time. According to Committee members, this unprecedented event reflects the equally unprecedented statements and actions of Donald Trump about increasing the US nuclear arsenal, its alarming tendency to ignore expert advice on international security, including the findings of intelligence experts, and his appointment as Head of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency, which challenges the fundamentals of climatology.

The Journal of Nuclear Scientists Bulletin covers international security issues and the threat of nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction, climate change and new technologies. The magazine was founded by former members of the Manhattan Project after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since 1947, journal experts have been leading the Doomsday Clock project, which allegorically represents the level of nuclear threat in the world. This year, the Doomsday Clock celebrates its 70th anniversary. The proximity of the minute hand to midnight initially reflected the likelihood of a nuclear war, and now shows the degree of danger of all modern technologies that threaten to get out of control.



The assessment of the state of affairs by nuclear scientists agrees with the grim assessment of some specialists in mathematical statistics. They point to the fact that there have never been long periods of peace on Earth, so the start of another world war can be expected in the next century. According to them, the concept of the long world of Pinker is untenable. As Nassim Taleb said, this is a kind of statistical illusion, see graphics.


Taleb's "Turkey Surprise" Illustration: Distribution of War Victims according to Pinker - first hundred years (The “Long Peace” is a Statistical Illusion)


Illustration by Taleb of Turkey Surprise: the very same distribution — the second hundred years (The “Long Peace” is a Statistical Illusion)

It only remains to console oneself only by the fact that the Doomsday Clock is an absolutely unscientific and symbolic metric. There is no such scientific concept as “Doomsday”. In fact, the readings of hours mean only a subjective degree of dissatisfaction of a group of people with the way things are in the world.