When you changed the world, and no one noticed
Do you know what is happening in this photo? Literally one of the most important events in the history of mankind.
And the most surprising thing about this story is that at that time almost no one noticed.
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The brothers Wilbur and Orville Wright conquered the flights on December 17, 1903. Few inventions have changed the world so much over the next century. The train journey from New York to Los Angeles took four days in 1900. By 1930, it could be done in 17 hours by air. By 1950 in six hours.
In contrast to, say, the decoding of the genome, an amateur can immediately realize the miracle of flight for a person. The man was sitting in a box and turned into a bird.
But after a few days, months, and even years after Wright's first flight, almost no one noticed.
Here is the first page of The New York Times on the day after the first flight:
Not a word about Wright. Two days later - nothing again:
Three days later, when Wright made the fourth flight, which lasted almost a minute. Nothing:
And so on. Four days, five, six, six weeks, six months ... Not a single mention of the people who conquered the sky for the first time in the history of mankind.
In the Library of Congress, where I found these newspapers, I discovered two interesting details. First, the first mention of Wright in The New York Times appeared in 1906, three years after their first flight. Secondly, in 1904, the newspaper asked the balloon magnate if people could ever fly. He replied:
This was a year after the first flight of the Wright brothers.
In his 1952 book on American history, Frederick Lewis Allen [Frederick Lewis Allen] wrote:
The Wright story shows a general principle: it often takes a lot of time from how you change the world, and before you manage to convince people that you have changed the world.
Jeff Bezos once said:
This is a very important message. Things that get instant recognition are usually existing products with minor modifications. We like them because they are familiar to us. The most innovative products - those that change the world - are usually never perceived immediately, even by the smartest people.
So it was with the phone. Alexander Graham Bell tried to sell his invention to Western Union, and received the answer:
So it was with the car. Twenty years before Henry Ford convinced the world that he was on the right track, Congress issued the following verdict:
This happened to the index fund - one of the most important financial innovations of the last 50 years. John Bogle launched the first index fund in 1975. Nobody gave him meaning over the next twenty years. Popularity began to come to them gradually, in the 1990s. And then, three decades later, the idea spread like wildfire.
This is happening now. 3D printing has been actively developing in the last five years. But this is not a completely new invention. Look at this interview with the director of 3D Systems from 1989 already.
In 3D printers, as in many inventions, there is a delay of several decades, between invention and adoption. The same with solar energy. Photovoltaic discovered in 1876. Commercial copies appeared in the 1950s, and Jimmy Carter placed solar panels on the White House in the 1970s. But they didn't really take off until the end of the 2000s.
Big breakouts usually go seven steps.
• At first nobody heard about you.
• Then they heard about you and decided that you were crazy.
• Then they understood your product, but decided that it had no future.
• Then your product is treated like a toy.
• Then your product is considered as an amazing toy.
• Then they start using it.
• Then, without him, they no longer represent their lives.
And this process can go on for decades. It rarely takes less than a few years.
Three conclusions can be drawn from this.
To change the world, you need to be a genius. But to wait until people notice this, you need a completely different quality. “Zen patience” is usually not associated with the image of an entrepreneur. But it is often required, especially for products that change the world.
If innovation is measured by generations, it is not necessary to measure the results by quarters. History shows how long, chaotic and chaotic changes can take place. The stock market is a very funny story about how millions of people expect fast, clean and clean decisions from current companies. The difference between reality and expectations explains frustration.
Invention is only the first step of innovation. Stanford Professor Paul Saffo describes it this way:
And the most surprising thing about this story is that at that time almost no one noticed.
')
The brothers Wilbur and Orville Wright conquered the flights on December 17, 1903. Few inventions have changed the world so much over the next century. The train journey from New York to Los Angeles took four days in 1900. By 1930, it could be done in 17 hours by air. By 1950 in six hours.
In contrast to, say, the decoding of the genome, an amateur can immediately realize the miracle of flight for a person. The man was sitting in a box and turned into a bird.
But after a few days, months, and even years after Wright's first flight, almost no one noticed.
Here is the first page of The New York Times on the day after the first flight:
Not a word about Wright. Two days later - nothing again:
Three days later, when Wright made the fourth flight, which lasted almost a minute. Nothing:
And so on. Four days, five, six, six weeks, six months ... Not a single mention of the people who conquered the sky for the first time in the history of mankind.
In the Library of Congress, where I found these newspapers, I discovered two interesting details. First, the first mention of Wright in The New York Times appeared in 1906, three years after their first flight. Secondly, in 1904, the newspaper asked the balloon magnate if people could ever fly. He replied:
"In a very, very distant future," said the count, focusing on the word "very," and shrugging his shoulders, hinting at eternity, "flying cars may appear, but not now, not now."
This was a year after the first flight of the Wright brothers.
In his 1952 book on American history, Frederick Lewis Allen [Frederick Lewis Allen] wrote:
A few years passed before the public realized what Wright was doing; people were so confident that the flights were impossible, that most of those who saw them flying over Dayton in 1905 decided that this was some kind of trick that was not of special importance - something like how people would perceive our days, for example, telepathy. Only in May 1908, almost four and a half years after the first flight, experienced reporters were sent to see what the brothers were doing, experienced editors believed in happy stories, and the world suddenly realized that the flight of a man was successful.
The Wright story shows a general principle: it often takes a lot of time from how you change the world, and before you manage to convince people that you have changed the world.
Jeff Bezos once said:
The invention requires readiness for not being understood for a long time. You are doing something that you believe in, what you are convinced of, but for a long time people with sincere intentions will criticize these attempts ... If you really believe that they are wrong, you should be ready for what you will not understand for a long time. This is the key moment of the invention.
This is a very important message. Things that get instant recognition are usually existing products with minor modifications. We like them because they are familiar to us. The most innovative products - those that change the world - are usually never perceived immediately, even by the smartest people.
So it was with the phone. Alexander Graham Bell tried to sell his invention to Western Union, and received the answer:
This “phone” has too many flaws to seriously take it as a practical form for communication. The device has no use for us. How can a company use this electric toy?
So it was with the car. Twenty years before Henry Ford convinced the world that he was on the right track, Congress issued the following verdict:
Horseless carriages driven by gasoline can reach speeds of 14, or even 20 miles per hour. The threat to people from such vehicles, rumbling along our streets and roads, and poisoning the atmosphere, requires the rapid adoption of laws. The cost of producing gasoline is too high for private production ... In addition, engine development can damage the use of horses, which will break all of our agriculture.
This happened to the index fund - one of the most important financial innovations of the last 50 years. John Bogle launched the first index fund in 1975. Nobody gave him meaning over the next twenty years. Popularity began to come to them gradually, in the 1990s. And then, three decades later, the idea spread like wildfire.
This is happening now. 3D printing has been actively developing in the last five years. But this is not a completely new invention. Look at this interview with the director of 3D Systems from 1989 already.
In 3D printers, as in many inventions, there is a delay of several decades, between invention and adoption. The same with solar energy. Photovoltaic discovered in 1876. Commercial copies appeared in the 1950s, and Jimmy Carter placed solar panels on the White House in the 1970s. But they didn't really take off until the end of the 2000s.
Big breakouts usually go seven steps.
• At first nobody heard about you.
• Then they heard about you and decided that you were crazy.
• Then they understood your product, but decided that it had no future.
• Then your product is treated like a toy.
• Then your product is considered as an amazing toy.
• Then they start using it.
• Then, without him, they no longer represent their lives.
And this process can go on for decades. It rarely takes less than a few years.
Three conclusions can be drawn from this.
To change the world, you need to be a genius. But to wait until people notice this, you need a completely different quality. “Zen patience” is usually not associated with the image of an entrepreneur. But it is often required, especially for products that change the world.
If innovation is measured by generations, it is not necessary to measure the results by quarters. History shows how long, chaotic and chaotic changes can take place. The stock market is a very funny story about how millions of people expect fast, clean and clean decisions from current companies. The difference between reality and expectations explains frustration.
Invention is only the first step of innovation. Stanford Professor Paul Saffo describes it this way:
30 years need a new idea to enter the culture. Technology does not promote change. They are promoted by our joint response to the opportunities and prospects offered by technology.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/372649/
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