Peak population: who will colonize the solar system?
Usually, within the framework of the discussion about resource limitations, they talk about minerals and especially about energy resources. As long as everything in the universe cools, collapses and degrades, humanity, thanks to its energy resources, develops and reduces entropy. But there are more primary things that are mentioned less often than we would like - the person himself.
The possibilities of humanity depend on two factors - skills and population, in other words, quality and quantity. Other things being equal, twice as large a population will produce twice as much material wealth. Similarly, with skills that can be called productivity. It may seem that “quantity” (population) is much less relevant than “quality” (labor productivity), but this is not so. A double population would give birth to twice as many geniuses and could send two or three rovers instead of one to Mars, scientific and technical progress would be accelerated. Therefore, if you dream of a progressive future, then you should not forget about the population. Perhaps it was this recently that Ilon Mask was referring to, stating that the world population is moving towards collapse and very few people take it seriously.
If you look around and look forward a bit, then there’s really no problem. But Comrade Musk is known for operating and trying to look into a much more distant future, we will try to follow his example.
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For a start, there are already model examples today - Japan. It is believed that the country's economic crisis has long lasted, which even got its own name - “ lost decades ”. But in reality, the crisis is exclusively demographic, it is easy to see if we consider economic growth through labor productivity and the number of workers:
The qualitative factor annually provided 1.5% of GDP growth for both countries, but the decline in employment slowed Japan down by 0.3% - a total growth of 1.2% per year. If in Japan, employment increased in the United States, then its economic growth would be almost twice as much - 2.25% per year, and this is already a good number. But history does not know the subjunctive mood - Japan’s GDP slipped from second to fourth place in the world rankings and this is not the end: the situation with the birth rate in Japan is worsening and a recent study claims that almost half of the population in the 18-34 age group did not have sexual contacts. The country has a “virginity epidemic”.
Therefore, one increase in labor productivity does not leave (fly away). At the same time, China’s success has shown that it is possible to take “quantity” - its GDP at PPP, as well as investments in R & D exceed those for the USA and Europe.
Regarding the distant future, trends in population and fertility (the number of children per woman) are extremely inertial, and therefore easily predictable. At the same time, it is most interesting to consider the population of the age group 25-64, which creates the main share of material benefits, which doubly simplifies the forecast - for example, in the distant 2040 this group will include only those born in the period 1976 - 2015 and already known to statistics , new people in this group will no longer appear:
After a couple of generations, the population of the age group 25-64 will be halved, with corresponding consequences for the abilities of Japanese society. Agree, I would not like such prospects for all mankind, but it’s precisely this.
At the moment, in addition to Japan, the “peak of the population” includes the West, Russia and China:
A little later, it touches Latin America and India. Excluding Africa, the colonization of Mars will occur in a decreasing population.
Due to population problems, global GDP growth will slow by half, which will alienate our scientific and technical fantasies. At the same time, further population growth will occur in countries with very low labor productivity, which will reduce its effect. Perhaps the situation can be changed by “strong” artificial intelligence, but geniuses for its creation and improvement we have to give birth and grow ourselves.
How to solve the problem of "peak population" is not clear. In many countries, there are special programs to support fertility, but they do not work. Developed countries are addressing the issue of immigration, but, in general, this is a zero-sum game - it has gone somewhere. Since such a distant future is affected, then who knows, maybe the cloning of people (for example, the Japanese in this strange Japan) will become a natural practice.
The possibilities of humanity depend on two factors - skills and population, in other words, quality and quantity. Other things being equal, twice as large a population will produce twice as much material wealth. Similarly, with skills that can be called productivity. It may seem that “quantity” (population) is much less relevant than “quality” (labor productivity), but this is not so. A double population would give birth to twice as many geniuses and could send two or three rovers instead of one to Mars, scientific and technical progress would be accelerated. Therefore, if you dream of a progressive future, then you should not forget about the population. Perhaps it was this recently that Ilon Mask was referring to, stating that the world population is moving towards collapse and very few people take it seriously.
If you look around and look forward a bit, then there’s really no problem. But Comrade Musk is known for operating and trying to look into a much more distant future, we will try to follow his example.
')
Real examples
For a start, there are already model examples today - Japan. It is believed that the country's economic crisis has long lasted, which even got its own name - “ lost decades ”. But in reality, the crisis is exclusively demographic, it is easy to see if we consider economic growth through labor productivity and the number of workers:
The qualitative factor annually provided 1.5% of GDP growth for both countries, but the decline in employment slowed Japan down by 0.3% - a total growth of 1.2% per year. If in Japan, employment increased in the United States, then its economic growth would be almost twice as much - 2.25% per year, and this is already a good number. But history does not know the subjunctive mood - Japan’s GDP slipped from second to fourth place in the world rankings and this is not the end: the situation with the birth rate in Japan is worsening and a recent study claims that almost half of the population in the 18-34 age group did not have sexual contacts. The country has a “virginity epidemic”.
Therefore, one increase in labor productivity does not leave (fly away). At the same time, China’s success has shown that it is possible to take “quantity” - its GDP at PPP, as well as investments in R & D exceed those for the USA and Europe.
Peek into the second half of the century
Regarding the distant future, trends in population and fertility (the number of children per woman) are extremely inertial, and therefore easily predictable. At the same time, it is most interesting to consider the population of the age group 25-64, which creates the main share of material benefits, which doubly simplifies the forecast - for example, in the distant 2040 this group will include only those born in the period 1976 - 2015 and already known to statistics , new people in this group will no longer appear:
After a couple of generations, the population of the age group 25-64 will be halved, with corresponding consequences for the abilities of Japanese society. Agree, I would not like such prospects for all mankind, but it’s precisely this.
The Japanese script is repeated worldwide.
At the moment, in addition to Japan, the “peak of the population” includes the West, Russia and China:
A little later, it touches Latin America and India. Excluding Africa, the colonization of Mars will occur in a decreasing population.
Due to population problems, global GDP growth will slow by half, which will alienate our scientific and technical fantasies. At the same time, further population growth will occur in countries with very low labor productivity, which will reduce its effect. Perhaps the situation can be changed by “strong” artificial intelligence, but geniuses for its creation and improvement we have to give birth and grow ourselves.
How to solve the problem of "peak population" is not clear. In many countries, there are special programs to support fertility, but they do not work. Developed countries are addressing the issue of immigration, but, in general, this is a zero-sum game - it has gone somewhere. Since such a distant future is affected, then who knows, maybe the cloning of people (for example, the Japanese in this strange Japan) will become a natural practice.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/370631/
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