Experiment number 1. How many nuts on a plate?
For those who missed yesterday’s discussion of the book “The Wisdom of the Crowd,” please read here .
Let's try here to refute or confirm the ideas described there. I suggest the first (maybe clumsy) experiment.
In the book, for example, was determined by eye the weight of a bull, and we will try to determine the number of nuts in a plate. Ideally, of course, everyone would have to
anonymously enter the answer and not see what others are responding to, but since there is no such opportunity here, you can try this for now.
I ask to estimate how many nuts are on the plate (this is not a vase) and indicate this in the comments. If possible, before answering, do not see what others have answered.
')
When I type (if I get at all) at least 100 answers, I will calculate the arithmetic average of all the answers and compare it with the correct answer. Theoretically, if you believe the book, and if the experiment
not too rude, the average answer should be very close to true. Please answer seriously and do not write obviously wrong answers (0, 100000, etc.)
UPD: Do not minus, let the experiment take place;) For those who ask themselves the question, what does all this have to do with IT: please read the link to the discussion of the book
UPD: The experiment is complete! There were exactly 135 nuts on the plate. Although each separately gave, as a rule, a very different result, the arithmetic average was: 139.28 !! There were a total of 257 responses. I did not count duplicates (several answers from one user) and "9999999". The result is very interesting, we will continue to experiment. True, this topic for some reason cost me karma - also, probably, a manifestation of collective wisdom :)
Let's try here to refute or confirm the ideas described there. I suggest the first (maybe clumsy) experiment.
In the book, for example, was determined by eye the weight of a bull, and we will try to determine the number of nuts in a plate. Ideally, of course, everyone would have to
anonymously enter the answer and not see what others are responding to, but since there is no such opportunity here, you can try this for now.
I ask to estimate how many nuts are on the plate (this is not a vase) and indicate this in the comments. If possible, before answering, do not see what others have answered.
')
When I type (if I get at all) at least 100 answers, I will calculate the arithmetic average of all the answers and compare it with the correct answer. Theoretically, if you believe the book, and if the experiment
not too rude, the average answer should be very close to true. Please answer seriously and do not write obviously wrong answers (0, 100000, etc.)
UPD: Do not minus, let the experiment take place;) For those who ask themselves the question, what does all this have to do with IT: please read the link to the discussion of the book
UPD: The experiment is complete! There were exactly 135 nuts on the plate. Although each separately gave, as a rule, a very different result, the arithmetic average was: 139.28 !! There were a total of 257 responses. I did not count duplicates (several answers from one user) and "9999999". The result is very interesting, we will continue to experiment. True, this topic for some reason cost me karma - also, probably, a manifestation of collective wisdom :)
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/37013/
All Articles