NASA and NOAA: 2016 - the third consecutive record hot in the history of meteorological observations

In 2016, the temperatures on the Earth’s surface were the highest since the first climate records were recorded in 1800. This conclusion was reached by experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ).

According to NASA, global averaged temperatures in the past year were 0.99 ° higher than in the middle of the 20th century and 0.12 ° more than in 2015. Information from NOAA confirms a warming of 0.04 ° compared with 2015. On the other hand, NOAA is confident in its forecast of 62%, while NASA ranks 2016 as the warmest year with 96% confidence. In any case, 2016 is becoming the third in a row, which sets a new record for global average surface temperatures.
')
But why are agency results different? NASA analyzes include measuring the surface temperature of the Earth from 6.3 thousand meteorological stations, as well as data from ships on the surface temperature of the sea. In addition, Antarctic research stations have an impact on NASA's forecast. The entire set of such “raw” data is subsequently analyzed using an algorithm that takes into account different temperature ranges from stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could distort the general conclusions. The result of these calculations is an estimate of the global average temperature difference compared with the base period of 1951-1980.


The graph of changes in the annual temperature cycle from 1880 to 2015 compared with the average temperature in the same period

In turn, NOAA specialists used most of the same raw temperature data, but with a different base period, as well as methods for analyzing the polar regions of the Earth and global temperature that are different from NASA methods. It is interesting that the World Meteorological Organization , comparing the average temperature in 2016 with the reporting period of 1961-1990, came to the conclusion that this figure rose by 0.88 °.

As weather stations and measurement methods change over time, there is some uncertainty in the interpretation of specific global differences in average temperatures from year to year. In the new millennium, the annual temperature record was broken five times - in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016.


Global temperature change since 1880

The temperature jumped to new national highs in some parts of India, Kuwait and Iran, while sea ice melted faster than ever in the Arctic, according to a report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Europe and Asia recorded their third hottest year in history, while Australia celebrated its warmest year more than a century ago. In the Arctic, the average annual sea-ice area was 10.2 million km ² , the lowest annual average for the entire history of record keeping.

Record high temperatures remained in each of the first eight months of this year. The main reason for the growth of scientists from NOAA called the burning of fossil fuels - oil and natural gas, in which methane and other greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere.

Another factor determining the growth of average temperatures is the warming of the waters of the Pacific as a result of El Nino , which, as experts believe, aggravates the current state of affairs. El Nino comes and goes, but the heat remains: the consequences of the last appearance in 2015 were the most serious in the last 20 years - since 1993, the annual rise of water in the oceans was 3-5 mm, and in 2016 it reached 15 mm .

However, among scientists, opinions on the effect of El Nino on increasing the average temperature of the Earth’s surface differ. Peter Stott (Peter Stott), acting director of the British Meteorological Bureau of the Center Hadley believes that the role of El Nino in global warming is greatly exaggerated. The main contribution to warming over the past 150 years is the human influence on climate, associated with an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Peter Stotte agrees with his colleague Piers Forster from the Priestly International Center for Climate Observations: “Even if you exclude data on El Nino, 2016 will still be the warmest in the entire history of observations.”

Climate change is one of the most important problems of the 21st century; it shows no signs of slowing its development. As one of the most important solutions to this issue, some scientists consider reducing mankind’s dependence on fossil fuels and switching to renewable energy sources. This process is quite complex and costly, but in the long term should bear fruit.