Economy 2.0: why I don’t believe in banks in 15 years

Bank of the future



Of course, banks will continue. But in this form, as it is today - for sure not. Now I will try to explain how social networks, the Uber approach and the ability to analyze big data turn into only one segment.



Take the securities. Historically, in America of the 20s, you had to go to some uncle crying "Only I know what and how." This uncle was called a broker. You carried money to him, and he watched for a commission that there were more of them. The obvious problem was that the actions of the uncle remained a black box. And his interest was not in your profit, but in his, uncle, personal.

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But the first evolutionary chain was not in the direction of avoiding uncles, but in the direction of selecting among them alpha males.

The Age of Funds

One fine morning, a successful uncle broker woke up and saw a crowd around him. Since he was successful (or was just lucky), the crowd was not with guns and a set for the Lynch court, but with money. And smiled. And the ring. Everyone wanted to give money to him, because with his past actions he proved that it was worthwhile. At this moment the uncle was aware of the situation and said the following:

- There are many of you, and I am alone. Let's do the foundation!



So in the 70s, the first index funds appeared, when the whole crowd agreed on where it was investing, and the uncle made sure that everything went according to plan. He was instead of automation, because in the 70s the scripts were still warm and tube in the literal sense.



The uncle was very fond of expensive offices, expensive women and expensive wine, plus kept a horde of "scripts" - younger employees sitting on the phones. All this created high costs. These costs determined the third stage of evolution.

Funds on the stock exchange

At some point, the young guys got together and decided that something was going on like that. Old guys with funds zazhralis, and the young have nowhere to develop. And then they looked suspiciously at the computers and realized that they could:

1. Make all operations cheaper.
2. To bring the index fund to the exchange as a separate company, because it is also a company!

So we got an analogue of virtualization. The fund that was needed for the clustering of shares, he himself became a company that issues its shares. Everything is a little different in terms and precise definitions, but in fact - it is.

The woman was taken out, the machine set

Not everyone liked the guys who managed the funds. Since their work was no different from the work of robots, and the robots had already grown up and matured, it was decided to replace all the guys with robots. All the same, they buy shares in the fund list. And next to put sysadmins, so they followed these robots.



Plus I wanted to make sure that the value of the fund’s shares was directly and rigidly tied to the value of the shares owned by the fund.



This is how ETF appeared - clusters of stocks purchased on the list. And sysadmins like us, standing side by side and in no way touching the logic of robots (because their actions are checked by at least two more independent organizations).



All this happened in the 90s and came to us only when we raised the infrastructure in IT and the legal plan in the country for this in 2012.



At that time, another important thing happened in America and Europe - the “humanitarian” market revolution.

Humanitarian revolution

It was quickly discovered that for portfolio investors (those who collect stocks to calmly wait for them to grow, that is, use securities as an analogue of a bank deposit), the risk minimization strategy sets out in an amazing way.



There was a simple questionnaire for those who have money, but do not want to understand the markets. It came down to determining how much you are willing to invest and how much to risk. For example, set a goal - when earning 35 thousand rubles a month, save your son to the university after 12 years. Or to the apartment for his wedding. The software tells you that you need to invest 50 thousand rubles now and deduct another 1,200 rubles from each payday. You move the risk slider to the position that suits you and click "OK".



Hop! The portfolio is formed, and the robot will purchase it for the next 12 years and manage it. Now we have such a set, you can see it here. There you distribute the test amount (which you do not need to deposit) and see what happens to it. You can replace it with real money at any time. Here is the link: finance-autopilot.ru .

Future

In my opinion, the next stage is direct access to accounts and social networks. Robots will be able to use all the money that you have in your accounts in order to invest them in diversified instruments. You simply check that they are there for you in the past month and, if you so desire, move a couple of sliders. Now everything goes to something like that. At the very least, spending analytics already allows you to understand how many people can put off on an investment account.



The second theme is Uber and his one-button approach. The guys actually changed the entire banking sector. In the coming years, banks will rapidly simplify the interfaces in the same position - so that with a single button you can do something that used to take days in a couple of minutes.



The third area is big data. Proper risk assessment allows you to invest the same. From an example today - it was suddenly enough revealed that some of the most reliable borrowers are those who keep pets. This seemingly insignificant factor suddenly gained a very high weighting factor. I think it is interesting for banks to know what you eat, how you dress and with whom you are friends. If you let them in the social network, they will be able to know everything about your money. Up to the analysis of the cost of clothing in the photo on the avatar. And even now, if you have information about your child in the social network, the banks start vying to offer you products for his apartment, his university and his health insurance in 15-20 years.



I think soon it will already become a robot adviser. “Misha, I will have a child, sell everything?”, And the robot Misha says: “No, sell only Microsoft and half of Google, then buy this target-date fund. You sell exactly 18 years later, there is enough for the university. And here's another 500 rubles of difference — drink in the evening with Peter and Cyber30mbi81. ”



A bank in the modern sense will not be needed.

References:

• About why you need only 10 people to manage an asset of billions of dollars (IT infrastructure in Habré)
• What is ETF (buying a piece of a cluster of shares of T + 2)
• Post on Habré about what IT risks are.
• Derivatives on the stock exchange and what threatens downtime at 2 o'clock