Goodbye, karma or "predictions come true?"
Today I looked through the best publications of all time and found a very funny post:
geektimes.ru/post/82273 "Farewell, Karma, or Who Needs an iPad?"
')
The most interesting thing is that although I liked the Apple technology at that time (as I really like it now), the output of the ipedo over me was genuinely perplexed.
I even had stronger arguments than the author of the post mentioned:
* For example, who needs a big iPhone, from which you can not call?
* Or, again, who needs an under-computer that doesn't even have a full-fledged keyboard !?
In my opinion at that time, the iPad - it was just a toy, on which you could only better see the fierce faces of the birds, in the process of hurling them about various designs.
Of course, it is already obvious to me now, having experienced it in practice, that it is much more convenient to watch a movie, surf by no, or read a book while lying on the sofa, than holding a 2-3 kg laptop (yes, I mean that well-known to many, pose a belly up).
Then he remembered various predictions of the past:
Which of all this can be concluded?
It seems that no logical reasoning, based on personal experience, about completely new devices or ideas - can predict their success or failure.
Only the free market and the use in practice can confirm or disprove the benefits of this or that innovation.
Of course, in the case of various devices and software, the ability of the head of the company to feel the market plays a big role, but even the great Steve himself was sometimes mistaken (Another thing is that he never gave up and could immediately throw out a failed idea without unnecessary sentiments, despite the weight effort spent on it. And then I could just as quickly switch to the development of the next idea).
On the one hand, such an inability to predict the development of technologies for any foreseeable future causes some discomfort and uncertainty about the future, but on the other hand, it allows with anticipation and curiosity to expect what scientists and engineers will create something new. And not only they ...
I only believe that there will always be different things that will make our life easier, more interesting and more comfortable. The whole experience of the last few centuries speaks about this and I see no foreseeable reason for stopping people from creating. To create not only new devices, but also new works of art, many of which are provided with technological progress (for example, many new styles of music that are impossible without computer processing or new types of musical instruments).
Therefore, finally, I want to wish everyone:
Be creative, mad and enjoy the process and the results ...
geektimes.ru/post/82273 "Farewell, Karma, or Who Needs an iPad?"
')
The most interesting thing is that although I liked the Apple technology at that time (as I really like it now), the output of the ipedo over me was genuinely perplexed.
I even had stronger arguments than the author of the post mentioned:
* For example, who needs a big iPhone, from which you can not call?
* Or, again, who needs an under-computer that doesn't even have a full-fledged keyboard !?
In my opinion at that time, the iPad - it was just a toy, on which you could only better see the fierce faces of the birds, in the process of hurling them about various designs.
Of course, it is already obvious to me now, having experienced it in practice, that it is much more convenient to watch a movie, surf by no, or read a book while lying on the sofa, than holding a 2-3 kg laptop (yes, I mean that well-known to many, pose a belly up).
Then he remembered various predictions of the past:
Funny misconceptions in science and technology
The concept is interesting and well framed. But, in order for an idea to start working, it must contain common sense. (Prof. Yale University in response to Fred Smith's proposal to organize a home delivery service; Fred Smith will become the founder of the delivery service of Federal Express Corp.)
Drilling land in search of oil? Do you mean that you need to drill the earth in order to find oil? You're crazy. (response to the project of Edwin Drake, 1859)
Knowledgeable people are well aware that the voice can not be transmitted through the wires. Even if it were possible, there would be no benefit from it. (The Boston Post, 1865)
Louis Pasteur's theory of microbes is a ridiculous fantasy. (Pierre Pache - Professor of Psychology at the University of Toulouse, 1872)
The belly, chest and brain will always be closed to the invasion of a wise and humane surgeon. (Sir John Eric Eriksen - British doctor appointed by the chief surgeon of Queen Victoria, 1873)
A device called “telephone” has too many flaws to seriously talk about it as a means of communication. This device is of no value to us. (official letter of the employee of Western Union, 1876)
Americans may need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messenger boys. (Sir William Price, Chief Engineer of the Post Office, 1878)
Flying machines weighing heavier than air are impossible! (Lord Kelvin - President of the Royal Society, Royal Society, 1895)
Everything that could be invented has already been invented. (Charles Dewell - Special Representative of the US Patent Office, 1899)
Airplanes are interesting toys, but they do not represent any military value. (Marechal Foch, Professor, Ecole Superieure de Guerre)
This tarahtelkoy can scare pregnant cats, but what is the use of it in battle? (General Kitchener on the first tank, 1915)
This music box without wires can have no commercial value. Who will pay for messages that are not intended for a private person? (Partners of the Davclass Sarnoff Association in response to his proposal to invest in a radio project, 1920)
Professor Godard does not understand the relationship between action and reaction, he does not know that the reaction requires more suitable conditions than a vacuum. It seems that the professor is experiencing an acute shortage of elementary knowledge, which is taught in high school. (An editorial in the New York Times devoted to the revolutionary work of Robert Godard on the subject of a rocket, 1921)
Yes, who the hell are interested in talking actors? (HM Warner - Warner Brothers reaction to the use of sound in cinema, 1927)
I think that in the global market we will find the demand for five computers. (Thomas Watson - Director of IBM, 1943)
ENIAC consists of 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons. However, the computers of the future, perhaps, will consist of only 1000 electron tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. (Popular Mechanics, March 1949)
Atomic energy vacuum cleaners may appear in 10 years. (Sir Alex Levit, President and Founder, Vacuum Cleaner Lewyt Corporation, 1955)
I traveled this country far and wide, communicated with the smartest people and I can assure you that data processing is just a fad, the fashion for which will last no more than a year. (editor of the publisher Prentice Hall, 1957)
The potential global market for copiers will hold no more than 5,000 units. (IBM founders of the company Xerox, 1959)
We do not like their sound and, in general, the guitar is yesterday. (Decca Recording Co., which rejected the recording of the Beatles album, in 1962)
But what can be useful in this thing? (a question on the discussion of the creation of a microchip in the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968)
In 1951, I visited Professor Douglas Hartree, who created the first differential analyzer in England. He had more experience working with such highly specialized computers than anyone. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that will be needed here in England can be made on three digital computers that were already being built at that time — one at Cambridge, the second at Teddingding and a third at Manchester. As he said, personal machines will never be needed by anyone, and the price they have is exorbitant. (Lord Bowden, American Scientist, 1970)
In the mid-70s someone approached me with one idea, which now, probably, can be called a personal computer. The idea was that we should use an 8080 processor together with a keyboard and monitor, and then sell these machines in the domestic market. I then asked: “What is all this for?” The only thing I heard in response was the creation of a kitchen computer for housewives, which would keep in memory all sorts of culinary recipes. Personally, I did not see anything useful in this, so we never returned to this idea. (Gordon Moore, Intel)
This computer, by the way, was called Honeywell Kitchen Computer and cost about 4 brand-new cars at the time of release in the USA - no wonder that no one bought anything.
No one may need to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olson - Founder and President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977)
640KB should be enough for everyone. (Bill Gates, 1981)
We will never be able to create a 32-bit operating system. (Bill Gates at the MSX presentation, Machines with Software eXchangeability - the name of the standard for consumer computers of the 1980s)
$ 100 million is too much for Microsoft. (IBM, 1982)
I believe that OS / 2 is destined to become the most significant operating system and, possibly, a program for all times. (Bill Gates in the introduction to OS / 2 User Guide, 1987)
Many say that in 1996 the already fast pace of the spread of access to the Network throughout the world will only accelerate. But personally my opinion is this: the rise of the popularity of the Internet in 1996 will end in complete collapse. (Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet, 1995)
In two years, the spam problem will be solved. (Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum, 2004)
By next Christmas, the iPod will go to the next world, lift its hooves, join the majority - in a word, kaput. (Sir Alan Sugar, CEO of Amstrad, Daily Telegraph, February 2005)
The iPhone has no chance of getting a significant part of the market. Absolutely none. Suppose that by asking for a $ 500 phone, Apple makes good money, but take a look at the 1.3 billion mobile phones sold worldwide. Better our software will be installed on 60, 70 or 80% of them, and not on the two or three percent that fall on Apple. (Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007)
Funny misconceptions in science and technology
The concept is interesting and well framed. But, in order for an idea to start working, it must contain common sense. (Prof. Yale University in response to Fred Smith's proposal to organize a home delivery service; Fred Smith will become the founder of the delivery service of Federal Express Corp.)
Drilling land in search of oil? Do you mean that you need to drill the earth in order to find oil? You're crazy. (response to the project of Edwin Drake, 1859)
Knowledgeable people are well aware that the voice can not be transmitted through the wires. Even if it were possible, there would be no benefit from it. (The Boston Post, 1865)
Louis Pasteur's theory of microbes is a ridiculous fantasy. (Pierre Pache - Professor of Psychology at the University of Toulouse, 1872)
The belly, chest and brain will always be closed to the invasion of a wise and humane surgeon. (Sir John Eric Eriksen - British doctor appointed by the chief surgeon of Queen Victoria, 1873)
A device called “telephone” has too many flaws to seriously talk about it as a means of communication. This device is of no value to us. (official letter of the employee of Western Union, 1876)
Americans may need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messenger boys. (Sir William Price, Chief Engineer of the Post Office, 1878)
Flying machines weighing heavier than air are impossible! (Lord Kelvin - President of the Royal Society, Royal Society, 1895)
Everything that could be invented has already been invented. (Charles Dewell - Special Representative of the US Patent Office, 1899)
Airplanes are interesting toys, but they do not represent any military value. (Marechal Foch, Professor, Ecole Superieure de Guerre)
This tarahtelkoy can scare pregnant cats, but what is the use of it in battle? (General Kitchener on the first tank, 1915)
This music box without wires can have no commercial value. Who will pay for messages that are not intended for a private person? (Partners of the Davclass Sarnoff Association in response to his proposal to invest in a radio project, 1920)
Professor Godard does not understand the relationship between action and reaction, he does not know that the reaction requires more suitable conditions than a vacuum. It seems that the professor is experiencing an acute shortage of elementary knowledge, which is taught in high school. (An editorial in the New York Times devoted to the revolutionary work of Robert Godard on the subject of a rocket, 1921)
Yes, who the hell are interested in talking actors? (HM Warner - Warner Brothers reaction to the use of sound in cinema, 1927)
I think that in the global market we will find the demand for five computers. (Thomas Watson - Director of IBM, 1943)
ENIAC consists of 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons. However, the computers of the future, perhaps, will consist of only 1000 electron tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. (Popular Mechanics, March 1949)
Atomic energy vacuum cleaners may appear in 10 years. (Sir Alex Levit, President and Founder, Vacuum Cleaner Lewyt Corporation, 1955)
I traveled this country far and wide, communicated with the smartest people and I can assure you that data processing is just a fad, the fashion for which will last no more than a year. (editor of the publisher Prentice Hall, 1957)
The potential global market for copiers will hold no more than 5,000 units. (IBM founders of the company Xerox, 1959)
We do not like their sound and, in general, the guitar is yesterday. (Decca Recording Co., which rejected the recording of the Beatles album, in 1962)
But what can be useful in this thing? (a question on the discussion of the creation of a microchip in the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968)
In 1951, I visited Professor Douglas Hartree, who created the first differential analyzer in England. He had more experience working with such highly specialized computers than anyone. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that will be needed here in England can be made on three digital computers that were already being built at that time — one at Cambridge, the second at Teddingding and a third at Manchester. As he said, personal machines will never be needed by anyone, and the price they have is exorbitant. (Lord Bowden, American Scientist, 1970)
In the mid-70s someone approached me with one idea, which now, probably, can be called a personal computer. The idea was that we should use an 8080 processor together with a keyboard and monitor, and then sell these machines in the domestic market. I then asked: “What is all this for?” The only thing I heard in response was the creation of a kitchen computer for housewives, which would keep in memory all sorts of culinary recipes. Personally, I did not see anything useful in this, so we never returned to this idea. (Gordon Moore, Intel)
This computer, by the way, was called Honeywell Kitchen Computer and cost about 4 brand-new cars at the time of release in the USA - no wonder that no one bought anything.
No one may need to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olson - Founder and President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977)
640KB should be enough for everyone. (Bill Gates, 1981)
We will never be able to create a 32-bit operating system. (Bill Gates at the MSX presentation, Machines with Software eXchangeability - the name of the standard for consumer computers of the 1980s)
$ 100 million is too much for Microsoft. (IBM, 1982)
I believe that OS / 2 is destined to become the most significant operating system and, possibly, a program for all times. (Bill Gates in the introduction to OS / 2 User Guide, 1987)
Many say that in 1996 the already fast pace of the spread of access to the Network throughout the world will only accelerate. But personally my opinion is this: the rise of the popularity of the Internet in 1996 will end in complete collapse. (Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet, 1995)
In two years, the spam problem will be solved. (Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum, 2004)
By next Christmas, the iPod will go to the next world, lift its hooves, join the majority - in a word, kaput. (Sir Alan Sugar, CEO of Amstrad, Daily Telegraph, February 2005)
The iPhone has no chance of getting a significant part of the market. Absolutely none. Suppose that by asking for a $ 500 phone, Apple makes good money, but take a look at the 1.3 billion mobile phones sold worldwide. Better our software will be installed on 60, 70 or 80% of them, and not on the two or three percent that fall on Apple. (Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007)
Which of all this can be concluded?
It seems that no logical reasoning, based on personal experience, about completely new devices or ideas - can predict their success or failure.
Only the free market and the use in practice can confirm or disprove the benefits of this or that innovation.
Of course, in the case of various devices and software, the ability of the head of the company to feel the market plays a big role, but even the great Steve himself was sometimes mistaken (Another thing is that he never gave up and could immediately throw out a failed idea without unnecessary sentiments, despite the weight effort spent on it. And then I could just as quickly switch to the development of the next idea).
On the one hand, such an inability to predict the development of technologies for any foreseeable future causes some discomfort and uncertainty about the future, but on the other hand, it allows with anticipation and curiosity to expect what scientists and engineers will create something new. And not only they ...
I only believe that there will always be different things that will make our life easier, more interesting and more comfortable. The whole experience of the last few centuries speaks about this and I see no foreseeable reason for stopping people from creating. To create not only new devices, but also new works of art, many of which are provided with technological progress (for example, many new styles of music that are impossible without computer processing or new types of musical instruments).
Therefore, finally, I want to wish everyone:
Be creative, mad and enjoy the process and the results ...
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/368395/
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