Market prospects e-commerse: growing sideways?

And so, everything began promisingly ... The first months of 2014, despite the obvious slowdown in the economy, promised good growth prospects for the e-commerce sector in Russia in general and in cross-border trade in particular.

Still, judge for yourself: occupying a confident first place in Europe by the number of Internet users - at least 70 million were expected by the end of the year - we also had tremendous growth potential horizontally. Namely, due to the increase and the degree of Internet penetration in the regions and the number of purchases online. After all, even in these indicators, we are far behind the leaders: with an average penetration rate of 50%, only half of the users trade online. For example, in Europe and the USA, with a penetration level of 70-85%, the share of such users already exceeds 80%. Grow where there is, at least extensively - by increasing the number of buyers.

Much more complicated is the situation with intensive growth - with the average bill ($ 55 in Russia) and a more indicative parameter - the average annual cost of online purchases per average user ($ 640 in Russia). Why more indicative? Yes, because its magnitude and changes year to year speak of fundamental parameters and trends — purchasing power, real disposable incomes and, to a large extent, consumer confidence index. But with this, starting from the middle of the year, we started having problems that by the end of December had grown into a real panic. And what is issued for a jump in consumer activity in December is, in fact, simply an unprecedented, until now, flight of people from the ruble.
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It is clear that no self-respecting analyst and expert will not be guided by the figures and studies conducted by the FOM and published in the annual final report of the Association of Companies of Internet Trade of Russia. Meanwhile, these figures cheerfully report on the unprecedented growth of the e-commerce sector in Russia during 2014, and especially the growth of cross-border trade by as much as 115%!

We will not give their calculations, the reasons for howling are clear - online trading is shifting to the gray zone, taxes, the budget is losing the customs payments, and so on. In short, urgently reduce the threshold of duty-free entry to 25 euros, as in some European countries, and we will be happy.

However, they forget at the same time to say that prices in domestic online stores, for taxation of which there are also a lot of questions, increased from 40% to 80% over the period November-December 2014. Resellers do not want to lose a penny, but want to continue to live, as before, receiving up to 40% of turnover and not doing anything constructive for this.

Summarizing all of the above, the prospects for the growth of e-commerce in monetary terms are more than vague, taking into account the devaluation of the ruble, and the decline in real disposable incomes of the population.

China’s share in overseas shopping is growing. But again, over the year, the ruble exchange rate to the yuan grew by almost 70%, even ahead of the 60% increase in the dollar - from 54 rubles for 10 yuan on December 30, 2013 to 91 rubles for 10 yuan on December 30, 2014. And while still wondering why China does not want to go to the calculations in national currencies! In yuan - please, and in rubles - God forbid. Friend and brother, called.

So, grow it grows. And delivery has improved - on average today is two weeks. And the percentage of lost parcels is steadily declining. But the question is - for how long? The situation in our economy is more than deplorable and, of course, the current growth in orders for Alibaba from Russia can also be considered to a certain extent a flight from the ruble.

As for the western direction of online shopping, the situation is more serious. The growth of the dollar and the euro almost 50-60% hit hard by the turnover of intermediary companies specializing in cross-border trade. But it is also clear that those who are used to buying high-quality branded clothing and footwear, the latest mobile gadgets, are unlikely to change their views and suddenly start shopping in China.

On the other hand, the prices in Russia have already grown quickly - here the participants of ACIT will not miss their. In this situation, it will still be difficult to find an alternative to Amazon, Ibei, Zappos and other state stores. Well, we, LiteMF , guarantee favorable delivery terms and free Mail Forwarding.