What happened in the world of finance in a week # 26

Hi, Geektimes! We continue to publish reports on major events in the world of finance and the stock market.



The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .

Currency and commodity markets

The past week began with the fall of the official euro rate below 55 rubles, at the Moscow Exchange trading that day, the European currency also dropped to 54.66 rubles, and the dollar rose to 50.5.
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ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin in his review spoke about the dynamics of changes in the euro-dollar currency pair:



In the future, the fall of the ruble continued. By the middle of the week, at the exchange trading, the dollar rose above 52 rubles, and the euro broke through the mark of 56 rubles. On Friday, the official dollar rate rose by 68 kopecks and came close to 53 rubles - from May 30, the Central Bank set it at around 52.9716 rubles, which is the highest figure since April 23. At the exchange auctions, the dollar overcame the mark of 53 rubles, and the euro rose to 58.21 rubles.

The weakening of the Russian currency was due to some decline in oil prices.

The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants in his weekly review told about the situation on the oil market:

In shale miners in the US, the new attack: according to local laws, reserves at their disposal can only take into account those that at the current level of technology can actually be obtained at a profit - due to low oil prices, those are twice as low as before, so now you have to write off many previous reserves; this means a sharp decline in assets — under which previously borrowed capital could be raised. Meanwhile, the number of active drilling rigs is almost not falling - as was to be expected, the minimum was reached somewhere near the bottom of 2009; However, whether there will be a strong reversal, a big question is that so far the fuel is too cheap, and you have to pay back debts, therefore, with increasing production there can be great difficulties.

From interesting news - the Central Bank plans to oblige Forex-companies to warn their clients about the risks of working in the foreign exchange market. At the moment, such organizations do not always do this - we wrote about the results of such a policy in a blog on Habré earlier ( once or twice ).

Stock market

Following the weakened ruble and against a negative external background, Russian stock indexes also ended the week with a decline - the MICEX ruble index fell by 2.92% to 1,609.19 points, and the dollar RTS fell by 2.23% to 968.81 points.

In his weekly review, ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik analyzed in detail the current economic situation and the situation in the stock market:

Last week opened the way down, and now the “bears” can only wait for good moments to increase their short positions, and investors are better not to go into the market with investments and wait for lower prices. The Russian indices experienced the greatest decline precisely on Friday, when one of the large funds decided to close their positions.

The upcoming quarterly expiration will bring intrigue and its corrections in the next two weeks, but judging by the situation on the options market, no one is expecting strong growth from current levels. The RTS currency index is unlikely to increase until June 15, well above the 1000 points mark. Registers closure season for Russian companies is gaining momentum, so the future attractiveness of many Russian stocks after the cut-offs will also fall.

Another risk factor for Russian investors is the revision or prolongation of already existing sanctions against Russia. The G-7 may discuss new international sanctions against Russia at the upcoming summit on June 7-8. It is hardly worth counting on the introduction of new economic sanctions, but the prolongation of the existing ones is likely to take place. The final decision of the country will be made in July, so in the next four weeks provocations and a new round of escalation of the situation in the east of Ukraine are not excluded.

To date, the MICEX ruble index has closed the week below the support range of 1620-1650 points, and now the road to the marks of 1500-1520 points is open. The growth of the index by 2-3% has not yet been ruled out, but it will need to be considered for increasing short positions and closing long ones.



If you look at the weekly chart of the RTS index, you can clearly see that since 2011 it has continued to be in a downtrend, and breaking the 1000 points mark opens the way to the mark of 900 points. Further support will be near the mark of 830 points and 750 points:

What will happen to the ruble

As part of the ITinvestTV project, RBC-TV presenter Zhanna Nemtsova spoke with Alexei Bachurin, director of the Renaissance Capital shares management, about what will happen to the ruble and how to make money on it:



That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

Cover photo: RIA News

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