What happened in the world of finance in a week # 22

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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency and commodity markets

At the beginning of last week, the official dollar rate grew by 1.22 rubles - from April 28, the Central Bank set it at the level of 51.469 rubles (the euro rose to 55.8747 rubles). Subsequently, the exchange rate of the dollar rose above 52 rubles, and the euro exchange rate on Friday exceeded 57 rubles.

A supporting factor for the ruble was the decision of the Central Bank to lower the key rate to 12.5%. Within a minute after the appearance of this news, the dollar fell from 51.9 rubles to 51.18 rubles, and the euro - from 57.8 to 57.3 rubles.



Schedule: RBC

Meanwhile, economists polled by Bloomberg said that the Russian currency has recently strengthened too much. In their opinion, the ruble may weaken soon.

According to Rosstat, inflation in the country slowed down to 0.1% per week, and President Vladimir Putin refused to call the situation in the Russian economy a crisis. At the start of the new week, the cost of the June futures for Brent crude oil during the bidding reached an annual maximum and rose to $ 67.08 a barrel.

The chief economist of ITinvest, Sergey Egishyants, in his weekly review described the situation on the energy market:

Oil continued to strengthen against the backdrop of further blockage of drilling and production cuts in the United States; Now speculators have joined the process - their rates of increase are maximum in 3-4 years; however, this usually means that the local vertex is somewhere nearby. The Arab mess also helps - Yemeni Hussites threaten to attack the Saudis, Libya covered the country's largest field (more than 100,000 barrels per day were mined there); Riyadh, in response, promises to provide the market with a supply in case of someone’s failures - but in reality it still has quite a bit of free capacity. But they are abundant in the American gas industry - which is why the price of natural gas continues to decline there, albeit already in a sluggish mode.

Stock markets

The past week was short, and trading activity on the Moscow Stock Exchange was not particularly high. ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik, in his analytical material, spoke about the state of affairs in the Russian stock market:

The Russian ruble MICEX index at the opening will show a slight increase. The RTS currency index can open without any changes. The strongest resistance on the MICEX index is in the range of 1700-1730 points. It can not be overcome for more than three weeks. The RTS currency index has also been trampling for three weeks near the psychological level of 1000 points. There are no fundamental reasons for the growth of the Russian stock market, and therefore any negative can quickly turn Russian indices down. It’s also stupid to bet on the dividend rally, who wanted to, he had already entered dividend stories for a long time, and those who didn’t want to, would not enter even now. Unfortunately, almost all good dividend stories are in 2-3 echelons, so they will not significantly influence the market dynamics.



The Russian ruble is still feeling confident. Starting today, the new reduced key rate of the CBRF takes effect. Paired with the dollar, while the Russian currency will be held near the 52 mark for several days. With two horizons, the chances of a ruble weakening to 60 in the pair with the dollar are estimated by the experts of IT Invest as high, therefore they recommend boldly buying foreign currency at current levels. The new aggravation of the situation in the east of Ukraine while investors ignore, but the closer July is coming, the more fears and risks will grow. Do not forget that in July there will be a question about the lifting or prolongation of the imposed European sanctions.

What to expect in May

In addition, Vasily Oleinik analyzed the most important economic news of the past week and made several predictions on the possible development of events in May:



That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

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Image: Oleg Yakovlev / RBC