What happened in the world of finance in a week # 24

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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .

Currency and commodity markets

The past week was another “shortened” due to the May holidays, and was not pleased with a significant number of economic events. At the Moscow Exchange trading on Tuesday, May 12, the dollar fell below 50 rubles - the decline occurred after a press conference following negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Secretary of State John Kerry (during which a “good, thorough dialogue” took place).
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Later, the exchange rate of the American currency fell below 49 rubles (it was not so cheap since November 2014), and the euro fell to 55.369 rubles. On Thursday, against the backdrop of statements by the Bank of Russia about its intention to resume buying the currency, the ruble collapsed quite a bit - as a result, the dollar again began to cost more than 50 rubles, and the euro rose above 57 rubles. However, already on Friday's trading the dollar again dropped below 50 rubles, the euro was trading at 57 rubles.



In addition, last week, analysts at ING predicted a decline in the euro to 49 rubles in 2016, while the average annual dollar rate, according to the forecast, not only compares to the euro rate, but will exceed it, reaching 51.4 rubles.

Among other interesting news: Rosstat's estimate of the fall in GDP in the first quarter of 2015 turned out to be better than the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development. This gave First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov to declare that the Russian economy is no longer in a “crisis state”:

It cannot be said that everything is great in our country, the economy is in a difficult state, but there is no such situation now, in which we worked out all the activities of our anti-crisis plan and considered an increase in funding.

Also on Friday in the course of trading on the ICE exchange, the cost of futures for Brent crude for delivery in June was about $ 66.32 a barrel.

ITinvest chief economist Sergey Egishyants described the situation on the energy market in his weekly review:

The process of reducing active drilling rigs in the US is slowing down - not surprising given that their number is already below the lows of 2009 (if we take the total for oil and gas). Finally, oil reserves in storage began to fall, and production was stagnating - as we expected. Therefore, oil is positive - but it, like shares, would be a good idea to roll once more onto the “northern frontier” (70-73 Brent), although in this case it is not entirely necessary. Natural gas in the United States - to the delight of shale miners - has returned to the range of 100-110 dollars per 1000 cubic meters.

Stock market

Last week began with a slight increase in the MICEX ruble index (up to 1,716 points) and the same slight drop in the dollar RTS (up to 1058 points), but trading on Wednesday showed the opposite trend - the MICEX index fell by 1.3%, and the RTS rose by 1 ,one%. The week ended with a slight increase in the entire Russian stock market - the MICEX index rose by 0.83% compared to the close of the previous trading session and amounted to 1,691.46 points, and the RTS index rose by 1.88% to 1074.46 points.

ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in his review on Monday May 18 notes :

More than six weeks in the Russian stock market there is summer apathy. [...] The ruble MICEX index after a month and a half has not been able to overcome the strong resistance range of 1700-1730 points, the strong ruble is to blame for that. The dividend cut-off season for Russian companies is starting to gain momentum, so the attractiveness of many stocks will start to decline every week. There are no fundamental reasons for the growth of Russian assets, in addition to the weakening of the ruble, so investors are now better to refrain from long-term purchases. The main reference point for long-term shareholders is still the support range of 1620-1650 points. As soon as the MICEX index drops below it, a signal will be received for a deeper correction with the goal of 1500-1520 points.



If you look at the RTS currency index, then the technical picture is a little more optimistic, but a quick reversal of the ruble can completely change it. The risks of correction for the Russian currency are growing every week, therefore, making a bet on a further upward trend in the currency index, you need to take this into account. While the RTS index is still, for more than a month, it is in a wide range of resistance with the boundaries of 1000-1100 points. Closing the week above it will open the way to the final growth target at around 1250 points, but the probability of such an event is no more than 20% now. There are more chances now that the RTS index will again start moving to the lower border of the range, to the level of 1000 points. It is the breakdown of the mark of 1000 points and the closing of the week under it and will give a clear signal to turn to correct 15-25%, but for now we can observe a side, vague dynamics for several weeks. It is possible that until the June quarterly expiration, the RTS currency index will remain in the range of 1000-1100 points, and after it, a correction will begin.

Is it worth buying a currency now?

During the program “Experts. Online Marketplace on RBC TV channel Vasily Oleinik answered journalists' questions about the prospects for the Russian currency (and the advisability of buying foreign):



That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

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Images: Oleg Yakovlev / RBC , TASS