What happened in the world of finance in a week # 16
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The past week began with the growth of the official dollar exchange rate above 62 rubles (the official exchange rate of the euro increased by 44.13 kopecks - to 65.679). However, the very next day, the official rate fell below this mark, and on Wednesday the ruble was trading at levels below 60 rubles per dollar. The Russian currency managed to stay at about 60 rubles. for a dollar before the end of the week.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that at the moment the ruble exchange rate is at the equilibrium point, since the Russian currency no longer “almost reacts to oil prices”, the decline of which at the end of 2014 led to a sharp devaluation of the ruble.
Meanwhile, representatives of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of OPEC stated that the price of "black gold" should not return to the level of $ 100 per barrel, since this would be disadvantageous to the main suppliers of oil. As of March 20, the cost of a barrel of Brent was $ 55.32 per barrel, which is more than two times lower than in June 2014 (then the barrel was worth $ 115.71), on Monday, March 23, the price of a barrel of Brent dropped below $ 55.
The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants described the situation on the energy market in his weekly review:
Vasil Oleinik, ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik, has discussed the intrigue on the oil market and the general economic outlook in his program on radio Moscow FM with Roman Andreev, General Manager of SR Solutions:
From other economic news - on Monday, March 23, senators plan to discuss the objectivity of international rating agencies in relation to Russia. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, told reporters that agency analyst evaluations are part of a “huge campaign to present Russia in the least favorable way.”
In addition, last week it became known that General Motors halts the production of cars in Russia, and also removes the Opel and Chevrolet brands from the market (sales of these brands of cars have already started - customers are promised a discount of up to 25-30%).
At the beginning of last week, the Russian stock market declined after falling oil prices. By the middle of the week, the situation stabilized and the main Russian stock indices moved in different directions - for example, on Thursday, the MICEX index lost 1.48%, dropping to 1,607.97 points, and the RTS index increased by 0.83% (847.99 points).
On Friday, the MICEX index during trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange fell below 1600 points for the first time since January 21 to 1599.73 points, losing 0.51% compared to the previous day's close. In the future, this drop was “won back” - the closing price was 1,628.64 points.
Vasily Oleinik in one of his reviews described the situation on the Russian stock market this way:
In the course of one of the business breakfasts, Yuri Maslov, the head of ITinvest's algorithmic client direction, discussed the current trends in algorithmic trading and the construction of trading robots.
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency markets
The past week began with the growth of the official dollar exchange rate above 62 rubles (the official exchange rate of the euro increased by 44.13 kopecks - to 65.679). However, the very next day, the official rate fell below this mark, and on Wednesday the ruble was trading at levels below 60 rubles per dollar. The Russian currency managed to stay at about 60 rubles. for a dollar before the end of the week.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that at the moment the ruble exchange rate is at the equilibrium point, since the Russian currency no longer “almost reacts to oil prices”, the decline of which at the end of 2014 led to a sharp devaluation of the ruble.
Meanwhile, representatives of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of OPEC stated that the price of "black gold" should not return to the level of $ 100 per barrel, since this would be disadvantageous to the main suppliers of oil. As of March 20, the cost of a barrel of Brent was $ 55.32 per barrel, which is more than two times lower than in June 2014 (then the barrel was worth $ 115.71), on Monday, March 23, the price of a barrel of Brent dropped below $ 55.
The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants described the situation on the energy market in his weekly review:
There are fewer active wells in the USA - according to Baker Hughes, the decline in 3 months (-40.6% in oil and gas) is the worst since 1986; Canada is still darker - oil drilling over the past year has declined by as much as four times. Nevertheless, production seems to be growing (not a fact: the official body may revise the data in hindsight) - and state oil workers are asking for permission to export; hints of a nuclear agreement with Iran and an increase in production in Libya circulate; The International Energy Agency predicts a decline in prices due to the excess of supply over demand. That is why WTI has new bottoms - but Brent is far from them, especially since the Saudis started to rally, giving optimistic estimates and forecasts, OPEC promises to the states a loss of production this year - and then the Fed arrived. Our view is the same: the lower we fall, the higher we will bounce - if there are new bottoms, from them we will vertically rise above 100; if they are not, we will also rebound, but lower.
Vasil Oleinik, ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik, has discussed the intrigue on the oil market and the general economic outlook in his program on radio Moscow FM with Roman Andreev, General Manager of SR Solutions:
From other economic news - on Monday, March 23, senators plan to discuss the objectivity of international rating agencies in relation to Russia. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, told reporters that agency analyst evaluations are part of a “huge campaign to present Russia in the least favorable way.”
In addition, last week it became known that General Motors halts the production of cars in Russia, and also removes the Opel and Chevrolet brands from the market (sales of these brands of cars have already started - customers are promised a discount of up to 25-30%).
Stock markets
At the beginning of last week, the Russian stock market declined after falling oil prices. By the middle of the week, the situation stabilized and the main Russian stock indices moved in different directions - for example, on Thursday, the MICEX index lost 1.48%, dropping to 1,607.97 points, and the RTS index increased by 0.83% (847.99 points).
On Friday, the MICEX index during trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange fell below 1600 points for the first time since January 21 to 1599.73 points, losing 0.51% compared to the previous day's close. In the future, this drop was “won back” - the closing price was 1,628.64 points.
Vasily Oleinik in one of his reviews described the situation on the Russian stock market this way:
After 4 weeks of decline in the Russian stock market, although there has been a stabilization, we haven’t seen any active purchases, so the time for new investments has not come yet. Last week the Russian ruble MICEX index, though closed with neutral dynamics, and the RTS currency index added within 2%, but fundamentally, this does not change the technical picture. Previously open targets for April are still in force. According to the MICEX index, this is the range of 1500-1520 points, according to the RTS currency index, the immediate goal of the correction is transferred from the mark of 800 to the mark of 750 points.
Trading robots: trends and prospects
In the course of one of the business breakfasts, Yuri Maslov, the head of ITinvest's algorithmic client direction, discussed the current trends in algorithmic trading and the construction of trading robots.
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy - write us a personal message and we will fix everything promptly.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/365279/
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