Comparison of stock indexes with the price of Bitcoin
Predicting the movement of the market is an extremely thankless task, and the forecasts of the so-called “experts” are close to 50% in their accuracy, that is, like tossing a coin. Nevertheless, the desire to profitably invest means forcing many of us to follow such forecasts so as not to miss a major market movement, as was the case with the rise in Bitcoin price from $ 0.1 to $ 1000.
Recently, the Bitcoin rate has dropped significantly, so that involuntarily there are thoughts about reaching the bottom, followed by a powerful upward trend. This opinion was expressed by Dan Morehead (Dan Morehead), executive director and founder of the investment company Pantera Capital Management, in the pages of the business magazine Forbes.
The specialist supports his version with the help of technical analysis, comparing the charts of stock indices in historical perspective with the change in the BTC rate.
Dan Morehead recalls the events of March 9, 2009, when the S & P 500 stock index fell below 700 points for the first time in 13 years. Panic reigned in the market, and analysts at Goldman Sachs published a research report assessing the likelihood of a market falling to 400.
')
However, further events developed differently, and stock indices grew almost continuously.
The graph shows the S & P 500 for 2006–2015 in black, the NASDAQ for 1996–2015 in gray, and the Bitcoin rate for 2013–2015 in gray. All graphs are shifted in time and scaled so that local minima fall on one point (red line).
Morehead draws attention that the rise and fall of quotations on the stock market and the value of Bitcoin occurred according to a similar scenario.
It is likely that the next BTC course will repeat the history with stock indices, that is, it will grow. In particular, the NASDAQ index is now 4.5 times higher than the minimum value of 2002, and the S & P 500 is 3.1 times higher than the 2009 minimum.
At the same time, Bitcoin fell by about 76% of the maximum (November 2013). Investment company Pantera has developed a model for estimating the “fair value” of Bitcoin BitIndex , which indicates the growth of cryptocurrency based on the overall development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
At least, this is true with a probability of 50%.
Recently, the Bitcoin rate has dropped significantly, so that involuntarily there are thoughts about reaching the bottom, followed by a powerful upward trend. This opinion was expressed by Dan Morehead (Dan Morehead), executive director and founder of the investment company Pantera Capital Management, in the pages of the business magazine Forbes.
The specialist supports his version with the help of technical analysis, comparing the charts of stock indices in historical perspective with the change in the BTC rate.
Dan Morehead recalls the events of March 9, 2009, when the S & P 500 stock index fell below 700 points for the first time in 13 years. Panic reigned in the market, and analysts at Goldman Sachs published a research report assessing the likelihood of a market falling to 400.
')
However, further events developed differently, and stock indices grew almost continuously.
The graph shows the S & P 500 for 2006–2015 in black, the NASDAQ for 1996–2015 in gray, and the Bitcoin rate for 2013–2015 in gray. All graphs are shifted in time and scaled so that local minima fall on one point (red line).
Morehead draws attention that the rise and fall of quotations on the stock market and the value of Bitcoin occurred according to a similar scenario.
It is likely that the next BTC course will repeat the history with stock indices, that is, it will grow. In particular, the NASDAQ index is now 4.5 times higher than the minimum value of 2002, and the S & P 500 is 3.1 times higher than the 2009 minimum.
At the same time, Bitcoin fell by about 76% of the maximum (November 2013). Investment company Pantera has developed a model for estimating the “fair value” of Bitcoin BitIndex , which indicates the growth of cryptocurrency based on the overall development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
At least, this is true with a probability of 50%.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/365213/
All Articles