What happened in the world of finance in a week # 11

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Currency markets

The past week began with the strengthening of the ruble - on Monday, February 9, at the exchange trading, the euro fell below 74 rubles, and the dollar to the level of 65.10 rubles. Despite the decline in oil prices, investors expected positive news about the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis from the negotiations in Minsk.

After the conclusion of an agreement to resolve the conflict, the euro fell below 74 rubles, and the dollar came close to 65 rubles. On Friday, the European currency broke through the mark of 73 rubles, and the dollar - 64 rubles (minimum values ​​since January 23).

This strengthening was facilitated not only by the completion of negotiations in Minsk, but also by an increase in oil prices. The price of Brent crude oil on world markets on Friday exceeded $ 61 per barrel. The prices of WTI crude oil also strengthened - on the New York stock exchange they were given $ 52.59 per barrel. In the course of trading on Monday February 16 at the ICE exchange, the cost of futures for Brent crude for delivery in April 2015 rose to $ 62.23 per barrel, which is 1.2% higher than the closing level of Friday trading.



Source: RBC, Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Here's how the situation in the oil market in its weekly review was described by the chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants:

OPEC has released a report, “Hurray, we are breaking, the Yankees are bending!” - it is more optimistic about the prospects for even this year; the forecast of the IEA has become more cheerful - the demand in the world will be higher than expected, and the supply will grow weaker, for the US shalers are in a difficult situation. However, as long as prices are low, Citigroup promises them just 20 bucks a barrel (interrupting Goldman Sachs pessimism, 30 dollars). Such unanimity makes us suspicious that we will actually see 70 already in spring, and 90-100 next winter - the dynamics of wells in the USA agree with this view: judging by Baker Hughes, the collapse is enchanting - in 4 weeks - 16.8% (the worst dynamics in 22 year), the change over the year and the number of wells on a 5-year day; Apparently, in the second quarter there will be a decline in production. Although it is necessary to take into account that in the 1980s the number of wells collapsed as much as 7 times - but we hardly come to this.

Stock markets

The beginning of last week was marked by expectations from the negotiations in the Ministry of Finance and the stock market - against this background, the MICEX index rose to a maximum since spring of 2011 above 1800 points. Additional market support was provided by stable oil prices. On Friday, the RTS dollar index reached 900 points for the first time since December, the MICEX index added another 1.4% (1827 points)

According to ITinvest analyst Dmitry Solodin, the RTS index rushed to the psychological mark of 1000 points:



ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleynik in his weekly review described the possible consequences of agreements on the Ukrainian issue:

The long-awaited positive from Minsk, where the issue of the conflict in Ukraine was resolved in the Norman format, gave the Russian stock market the opportunity to once again approach the maximum levels of the current year. The MICEX ruble index managed to add within 2% and overcome the mark of 1,800 points, however, he never managed to rewrite the maximum of Monday. The RTS foreign exchange index showed a more substantial growth, by almost 5%, however, closer to closing, it lost almost half of the conquered positions.



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It is worth noting that despite such a long-awaited positive, both the Ukrainian currency and the Russian ruble failed yesterday to show impressive dynamics. The growth of the Russian currency, even with rising oil prices, was a modest 0.5%. This fact can be regarded as one of the leading indicators of risk. So far, few people doubt that the conflict in Ukraine will begin to calm down and we will not see new provocations. After the signing of the last Minsk agreements, not even a week passed before both sides of the conflict began to break. Unfortunately, even now there are no guarantees that everything that is written on paper will be realized.

The most important thing is that the most difficult and dangerous time is coming for investors now, because from today the psychology of the majority of market participants will change completely. Until today, as the conflict escalated in Ukraine, there were constantly growing expectations that it should be urgently resolved. Now, another game begins - from the expectations now there will be only the fear of new provocations and a new round of escalation of the conflict. Any negative news on the news agency tapes will cause strong corrective movements in the Russian stock market, while the current growth drivers simply do not remain. It was with the signing of another peace treaty, investment in the Russian stock market, which has already soared by 30% on the MICEX index since the beginning of this year, become a dangerous occupation.

Economic trends

An economic observer of RBC-TV, Zhanna Nemtsova, prepared a review of current economic topics, and also described investment ideas for the Russian debt and equity market.



Vasily Oleinik discussed the first crisis results of 2015 with the founder of the SmartLab profile resource Timofey Martynov.

That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

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Image on teaser: RBC (TASS)