What happened in the world of finance in a week # 4
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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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At the beginning of last week, the already traditional ruble depreciation acquired the features of a real uncontrolled collapse - on Monday, the euro exchange rate exceeded 100 rubles, and the dollar struck a mark of 80 rubles. At the same time, oil prices were falling - at the London auction, the cost of a barrel of Brent crude fell on Monday below $ 59 a barrel.
Representatives of the Central Bank called the current situation critical, 6 and the reaction of the population turned out to be predictably nervous - people rushed to buy up currency and withdraw deposits from banks. As a result, there was a shortage of currency in exchange offices.
The mood of the population was nervous throughout the week, helped by the news that, for example, car dealers froze car sales in anticipation of the stabilization of the ruble. In addition, the ruble prices for apps in the App Store were revised by Apple - they were also significantly increased, in accordance with the current dollar rate. Later, new prices for appliances in the Apple Store were announced.
It is not surprising that people decided to invest the available money until they are devalued, who can do what - as a result, long queues appeared in the stores (especially for electronics and home appliances), and then the shelves were completely empty .
This is how Sergey Egishyants, chief economist of ITinvest, describes his current week ’s events in his review:
The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, has declared its confidence that the domestic currency will strengthen after the new year.
In the middle and the end of the week, after the Central Bank raised the key rate to 17.5% and announced a plan to bring the Russian economy out of the currency crisis (in particular, exporters would be obliged to sell part of the currency earnings), as well as rising oil prices, the ruble strengthened , showing almost complete correlation with the cost of energy.
The Secretary-General of the countries-exporters of oil OPEC said that by the end of 2015 we can expect a recovery in prices for "black gold".
The Russian stock market, whose value in November fell below the capitalization of one American company Apple , met the beginning of the week with another decline - for example, the RTS index fell below 600 points, updating the five-year minimum.
However, after the announcement of the news about the Central Bank’s plans for measures to save the national currency, growth began - on Wednesday, the RTS index rose to 740.47 points, although the MICEX index slightly decreased by the end of the trading day. At the end of the week, indices declined again against the background of another weakening of the ruble and another drop in oil prices.
ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his weekly review analyzed the current situation on the Russian stock market:
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
')
Currency markets
At the beginning of last week, the already traditional ruble depreciation acquired the features of a real uncontrolled collapse - on Monday, the euro exchange rate exceeded 100 rubles, and the dollar struck a mark of 80 rubles. At the same time, oil prices were falling - at the London auction, the cost of a barrel of Brent crude fell on Monday below $ 59 a barrel.
Representatives of the Central Bank called the current situation critical, 6 and the reaction of the population turned out to be predictably nervous - people rushed to buy up currency and withdraw deposits from banks. As a result, there was a shortage of currency in exchange offices.
The mood of the population was nervous throughout the week, helped by the news that, for example, car dealers froze car sales in anticipation of the stabilization of the ruble. In addition, the ruble prices for apps in the App Store were revised by Apple - they were also significantly increased, in accordance with the current dollar rate. Later, new prices for appliances in the Apple Store were announced.
It is not surprising that people decided to invest the available money until they are devalued, who can do what - as a result, long queues appeared in the stores (especially for electronics and home appliances), and then the shelves were completely empty .
This is how Sergey Egishyants, chief economist of ITinvest, describes his current week ’s events in his review:
On Monday and Tuesday, the ruble found itself in a free fall phase, so for the dollar and the euro it collapsed 1.4 times a day - a total panic reigned in the market, which was reinforced by the powerful margin calls of a number of large enterprises for currency forwards, which they concluded in conjunction with their loans. Bucks reached 80 rubles, and the euro - 100; exchangers expanded the spread to almost 100 rubles (that is, in fact, they stopped selling currency) - well, etc. There was a rumor that Rosneft entered the market with newly acquired rubles - but she denied it and did not seem to lie. The Bank of Russia, at the same time, increased the rate and increased foreign currency repos - which attracted the demand of banks (at the beginning of December it was not at all).
The Ministry of Finance simultaneously distributed its currency balances (not sickly — more than 7 billion dollars), while the speculators and alarmists eventually simply ran out of rubles — the rates were already hooded; True, at the end of the year, mighty payments may again cause an influx of rubles to the stock exchange - but in January the hangover should be bitter; in any case, the market has calmed down noticeably. And if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can avoid the next stupidities (which is not a fact yet - in any case, the complete inability to carry out interventions remains in force), and the government will do its part of the overall work, then after the holidays the situation in the foreign exchange market can quite stabilize - before This is unlikely, even if the course has time to rebound even more steeply from record values.
The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, has declared its confidence that the domestic currency will strengthen after the new year.
In the middle and the end of the week, after the Central Bank raised the key rate to 17.5% and announced a plan to bring the Russian economy out of the currency crisis (in particular, exporters would be obliged to sell part of the currency earnings), as well as rising oil prices, the ruble strengthened , showing almost complete correlation with the cost of energy.
The Secretary-General of the countries-exporters of oil OPEC said that by the end of 2015 we can expect a recovery in prices for "black gold".
Stock markets
The Russian stock market, whose value in November fell below the capitalization of one American company Apple , met the beginning of the week with another decline - for example, the RTS index fell below 600 points, updating the five-year minimum.
However, after the announcement of the news about the Central Bank’s plans for measures to save the national currency, growth began - on Wednesday, the RTS index rose to 740.47 points, although the MICEX index slightly decreased by the end of the trading day. At the end of the week, indices declined again against the background of another weakening of the ruble and another drop in oil prices.
ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his weekly review analyzed the current situation on the Russian stock market:
The MICEX ruble index closed last week just above the support range of 1420-1440 points, and there are still chances that the current year will close in the red, but slightly above the current milestone. The most important and strong range of resistance 1500-1520 at the end of the current year will not be able to overcome again.
As for the RTS currency index, this year it broke all the anti-records, and last week it almost reached the minimum marks of the past crisis of 2008-2009. A break of 700 points opened the way to support at 500, and if it does not stand, then this tool will quickly begin to lose liquidity, and sooner or later will cease to exist.
That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/364735/
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