What happened in the world of finance in a week # 2

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The previous edition of the information digest can be found at this link .
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Currency markets

Last week, the ruble continued to fall (despite the fact that oil prices, on the whole, stood still) - Bloomberg journalists even led to the “Russian joke”, about that next year the figure 63 will unite three facts - so many dollars will cost oil , 63 rubles will be given for a dollar, and so many years will be fulfilled by the president of Russia.

At the same time, on Friday at the opening of exchange trading, the exchange rate strengthened - the day before the Central Bank announced that the current exchange rate is too low and creates risks for the country's financial stability.

See also: Banks vs Exchange: where it is more profitable to buy currency

As in his message to the Federal Assembly, the president asked the regulator to take measures to counteract the activity of speculators (they expressed themselves in carrying out “currency interventions”, that is, a single-stage sale of a large amount of currency by the Central Bank - this time analysts announced more than $ 1.9 billion sold to to bring down the course).

However, this activity did not bring any noticeable results. The official exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble even increased again and exceeded 53 rubles to the dollar. Some analysts believe that despite statements about a too strong depreciation of the ruble, it is in fact still overvalued. Economist Slon.ru Alexei Mikhailov is convinced that "a good price for February 2015" is a mark of 73 rubles per dollar.

ITinvest expert Dmitry Solodin, even on December 1, said that there was a possibility that the ruble would fall in exchange trading to the level of 60 rubles per dollar.



The chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants believes that in the near future there is no need to hope for a correction of the situation:

Even an empirical estimate [of course forecasting] (we take the price of oil in dollars and deduce the rate at which the ruble price will be 3500-3600) began to fail: panic in the market - and the Bank of Russia, having performed a couple of ritual mini-interventions, washed its hands.

The dollar reached 55 rubles, and the euro - 68, although the price of oil as a whole stood in place; and Mr. Ulyukaev found words of consolation for the confused public - they say, you’re getting rubles, what do you care about the course? It is clear what kind of inflation is growing because of the import component of the economy, and people are trying to save at least something, because there is no hope for fair compensation.

Stock markets

For the first time in five years, one of the two major indices of the Moscow Exchange - the dollar-based RTS index - fell below 900 points. During the evening trading on Friday, the index value fell by more than 2% - at the minimum mark, its value was 893.33 points.



The last time the RTS index fell below 900 points on July 16, 2009 (then its value was 887.9 points).

See also: How does economic news affect the stock market

ITinvest analyst Vasily Oleinik in his review suggests that a further decline in the RTS index to 700 points is possible. As for the second main index of the Moscow Exchange, the MICEX index, the expert describes his prospects as follows:

For almost two months the MICEX ruble index showed a good upward trend against the background of the fall of the Russian ruble. It is worth noting two factors that have become catalysts for the growth of the stock market. The first: the weakening of the national currency is a big plus for all Russian exporters, the second factor that made investors buy stocks is inflation.

Growth of inflation, undoubtedly, affects everything, and stocks here are no exception, even on the contrary, over a long period of time, investments in stocks, and not deposits in banks, are a good shelter from inflation. Recently, a number of experts have appeared who have begun to say that the Russian market can soar to 2000-3000 points on the MICEX index according to the Argentine scenario, due to the further weakening of the ruble, but we do not share such a scenario yet.

On foreign stock markets, the situation is somewhat different. Here is how Sergey Egishyants describes it:

Leading stock exchanges continue to feel confident - although their further growth is sluggish: apparently, America and Europe are waiting for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (which is almost one and a half times since the beginning) to catch up, as the Tokyo Stock Exchange this year) - so that later the whole crowd was more fun to fall. And they still have to fall - the last signal we waited for came: the 20-day volatility on the daily chart of the Dow Jones reached 0.2, where for all 115 years of observation there were only four times before (in 1944/45, 1964/65 , 2006 and 2010) - and each time with a lag maximum of a year with a little (and a minimum of a few months), the market turned around and fell by 20-50%.

This week

At the beginning of the new week, the ruble continued to fall in price - the euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange had already risen above 67 rubles, and the dollar broke the bar at 54 rubles. Oil prices have also declined - one of the reasons for the fall in prices were discounts offered by Iraq to Asian countries. As a result, the cost of futures for Brent crude in today's trading fell to $ 65.48 a barrel.



Against the background of falling energy prices, domestic stock indices also declined - almost all of the most liquid stocks lost between 3% and 5% of their value. Vasily Oleinik commented on the situation with the growth of the American currency:

Since all commodity assets are traded in dollars, you should not forget about the dollar index itself, which, to the basket of six major world currencies, reached its maximum levels over the past five years and stopped near the mark of 90. The strengthening of the dollar on the world stage has a negative impact on all commodity assets. including on oil prices.

There is still a high probability for a reversal of the dollar index from current levels in the coming weeks, and if this happens, the commodity currencies, including the Russian ruble, will receive the greatest support.

Another interesting topic of the new week is the consideration in the walls of the State Duma in the second reading of the draft law on regulating the market for over-the-counter currency trading (that is, the Forex market). One of the main innovations may be limiting the leverage that forex brokers can provide to their clients.

See also: How does Forex work and whether it is needed

That's all, thank you for your attention. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .