Economy of semiconductor production in Russia: we are analyzing one news
The company ex-Minister of Communications will begin exporting microelectronics to China - says the latest news at RBC.
Inside - details of the Angstrem-T plant, which is finally ready to conclude a contract with the Chinese. Let's try to arm ourselves with a calculator and see what really stands behind the numbers from the news.
As the representative of Angstrem-T told RBC, on May 24, the company plans to sign three contracts with the distributor of high-tech products Zhejiang Sirius Semiconductor Co., Ltd. for the supply of Angstrom-T microelectronics products for smartphones, tablets and other consumer electronics to China. The total amount of contracts is $ 36 million. The volume of deliveries is 10 thousand plates per month, the contract is valid until 2020 with the possibility of prolongation.
10 thousand plates per month is, by the way, two-thirds of the factory’s declared productivity on the site, that is, - found abroad a crucially large load for any factory, without which any microelectronic production is doomed.
Micron, for comparison, sells 500 million chips per year for export (or about five hundred plates per month), that is, the Angstrem-T contract is a breakthrough for Russian microelectronics, because all Russian exports (according to the same news at RBC) - 20 million dollars a year.
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And now let's calculate how expensive or cheap the AT is going to sell their plates. Take a period of two and a half years (from June 2018 to the end of 2020), we get $ 36 million for 300 thousand plates or $ 120 for a plate.
The cost of 200 mm plates (only the purchase of plates, without regard to working with them and even more so without taking into account the depreciation of equipment) - according to various sources, from 30 to 100 euros, that is, in the worst case, the plates will go at the cost of their purchase, and even in the best , just three times more (and I’ll remind you, we must also process them).
Let's double-check the realism of this calculation by assumption by another method. With a plate cost of $ 120, a percentage yield of good 90% and small crystals (which allow quite a bit to lose at the plate edges) the cost of one square millimeter (which is quite a lot for a linear regulator or RFID tag) will be about HALF CENT. It does not even fight with the prices of the cheapest old chips with crystals of approximately the same size, which (already in the case, after sorting out and preparing for sale) cost a few dozen cents. For example, the prices (in a batch of 1000 units) for linear regulators on the Analog Devices website are from 28 cents to 7 dollars per unit. True, delays of 7 cents are not produced at 90 nm at all, but quite at 600-800 each, and their production is much cheaper than production at more modern design standards.
A little research gives us this chart:
We look at the design standards of 130 and 90 nm, we get the typical revenue from the plate in 920 and 2095 dollars, respectively (and 90 nm by 200 mm, as in - will be more expensive than by 300 mm). Ok, let's say these chips will do according to the 250 nm process that was announced not so long ago - then we get something around 500 dollars from the plate.
But the sales price of the plate is 120 dollars! Fantasy, and only. Or something is being kept back to us.
And now the most interesting part of our history. Suppose that all is true, and this contract is economically beneficial for the company.
How many years does Angstrom-T need to work under such a contract (and this, I recall, two-thirds of its capacity) in order to give the state (represented by VEB) a loan of $ 815 million for which the plant was built? For simplicity, let us assume that the loan is interest free, and all 36 million is a profit, not revenue (that is, you do not have to pay salaries, plates and consumables are free, there is no equipment depreciation). A simple arithmetic gives a figure of 38 years - which no modern equipment, especially previously used, will hold out.
Cunning arithmetic, taking into account the interest on the loan and the profitability of 30% (as the market leaders) will give a figure, apparently, in a couple of hundred years, but who was embarrassed when it came up when drafting business plans and concluding contracts.
But this, of course, if we assume that Angstrom-T is going to return a loan of 815 million dollars issued by state-owned VEB. But even if you throw the state and do not return the loan, then it turns out that the Chinese will receive chips below cost - just to load the production with at least something.
This is the economy of Russian microelectronics.
Inside - details of the Angstrem-T plant, which is finally ready to conclude a contract with the Chinese. Let's try to arm ourselves with a calculator and see what really stands behind the numbers from the news.
As the representative of Angstrem-T told RBC, on May 24, the company plans to sign three contracts with the distributor of high-tech products Zhejiang Sirius Semiconductor Co., Ltd. for the supply of Angstrom-T microelectronics products for smartphones, tablets and other consumer electronics to China. The total amount of contracts is $ 36 million. The volume of deliveries is 10 thousand plates per month, the contract is valid until 2020 with the possibility of prolongation.
10 thousand plates per month is, by the way, two-thirds of the factory’s declared productivity on the site, that is, - found abroad a crucially large load for any factory, without which any microelectronic production is doomed.
Micron, for comparison, sells 500 million chips per year for export (or about five hundred plates per month), that is, the Angstrem-T contract is a breakthrough for Russian microelectronics, because all Russian exports (according to the same news at RBC) - 20 million dollars a year.
')
And now let's calculate how expensive or cheap the AT is going to sell their plates. Take a period of two and a half years (from June 2018 to the end of 2020), we get $ 36 million for 300 thousand plates or $ 120 for a plate.
The cost of 200 mm plates (only the purchase of plates, without regard to working with them and even more so without taking into account the depreciation of equipment) - according to various sources, from 30 to 100 euros, that is, in the worst case, the plates will go at the cost of their purchase, and even in the best , just three times more (and I’ll remind you, we must also process them).
Let's double-check the realism of this calculation by assumption by another method. With a plate cost of $ 120, a percentage yield of good 90% and small crystals (which allow quite a bit to lose at the plate edges) the cost of one square millimeter (which is quite a lot for a linear regulator or RFID tag) will be about HALF CENT. It does not even fight with the prices of the cheapest old chips with crystals of approximately the same size, which (already in the case, after sorting out and preparing for sale) cost a few dozen cents. For example, the prices (in a batch of 1000 units) for linear regulators on the Analog Devices website are from 28 cents to 7 dollars per unit. True, delays of 7 cents are not produced at 90 nm at all, but quite at 600-800 each, and their production is much cheaper than production at more modern design standards.
A little research gives us this chart:
We look at the design standards of 130 and 90 nm, we get the typical revenue from the plate in 920 and 2095 dollars, respectively (and 90 nm by 200 mm, as in - will be more expensive than by 300 mm). Ok, let's say these chips will do according to the 250 nm process that was announced not so long ago - then we get something around 500 dollars from the plate.
But the sales price of the plate is 120 dollars! Fantasy, and only. Or something is being kept back to us.
And now the most interesting part of our history. Suppose that all is true, and this contract is economically beneficial for the company.
How many years does Angstrom-T need to work under such a contract (and this, I recall, two-thirds of its capacity) in order to give the state (represented by VEB) a loan of $ 815 million for which the plant was built? For simplicity, let us assume that the loan is interest free, and all 36 million is a profit, not revenue (that is, you do not have to pay salaries, plates and consumables are free, there is no equipment depreciation). A simple arithmetic gives a figure of 38 years - which no modern equipment, especially previously used, will hold out.
Cunning arithmetic, taking into account the interest on the loan and the profitability of 30% (as the market leaders) will give a figure, apparently, in a couple of hundred years, but who was embarrassed when it came up when drafting business plans and concluding contracts.
But this, of course, if we assume that Angstrom-T is going to return a loan of 815 million dollars issued by state-owned VEB. But even if you throw the state and do not return the loan, then it turns out that the Chinese will receive chips below cost - just to load the production with at least something.
This is the economy of Russian microelectronics.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/359220/
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