Rome Club Report 2018, Chapter 1: “Sustainable Development - Bullshit”

I propose to deal with the report of the “world government” themselves, and at the same time help you translate the original source.

Foreword

Since the founding of the Club of Rome in 1968, more than 40 reports have been prepared for it. The first report, The Limits to Growth, attracted international attention to the Club of Rome. The book caused a shock in a world that had not previously paid attention to the long-term prospects for the continuing growth of the population, which today is called the human footprint in ecology. The founder and later president of the Rome Club Aurelio Peccei understood the need to discuss the challenges facing the world, the challenges to humanity, but it was also a surprise for him to learn from the above-mentioned report that all of them are connected with the human desire for endless growth in our finite territory the planets. The message of the young, bold team of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was that if growth continues at the same unrelenting pace, diminishing resources and serious pollution will inevitably lead to the collapse of the existing world order.
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Of course, today's computer models are much more advanced than the World3 model, prepared by the team in 1972. Some aspects of the economic growth of the last fifty years have not been fully taken into account, for example, innovation. But the main idea of ​​"Limits" is relevant today as it was in 1972. Today, the world is facing many difficulties that were warned in the 1970s: climate change, a shortage of fertile land, and the mass extinction of species. Moreover, the social situation in the world remains extremely unsatisfactory: about 4 billion people live in very poor economic conditions, they are threatened with natural disasters or wars. According to the latest estimates, more than 50 million people are forced to leave their homes and emigrate each year. Where to go? In 2017, there were already 60 million refugees in the world!

And at the same time, modern societies have nevertheless reached such a level of economic well-being, scientific base and technological potential, which allows to ensure the implementation of most of those transformations that are designated as paramount in the “Limits to Growth” to achieve global sustainable development.

We, the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome, gratefully acknowledge the virtues and ideas of the report “Limits to Growth”, as well as other very valuable reports that have been prepared for our organization. In addition, we remember the bold step that Alexander King made in 1991, the successor to Aurelio Peccei as president of the Club of Rome, publishing a book entitled The First Global Revolution in co-authorship with the club's general secretary Bertrand Schneider. Unlike others, this report was presented as a report on behalf of the Council of the Club of Rome (equivalent to the current Executive Committee of the Club of Rome). King and Schneider imagined that the end of the Cold War opened up new opportunities for achieving common peace and prosperity. This optimistic book again attracted the attention of the world community to the Rome Club, although to a lesser extent than in its time, The Limits to Growth.

The world, the world is again in a critical situation. We feel the need for a bold new venture. However, this time we consider it particularly important to pay attention to the essence of those philosophical beliefs that underlie the current situation in the world. We have to question the legitimacy of the spirit of materialistic egoism, which today is probably the most powerful driving force in the world, and here we share Pope Francis’s concern about the existing deep crisis of values ​​- the problem the Club of Rome identified as the most serious many years ago. We believe that the time has come for a new epoch of the Enlightenment or some other paradigm that will replace the usual myopia of thoughts and actions today. We welcome the serious approach of the United Nations, which was outlined in the 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda for the period up to 2030, which outlines the 17 Sustainable Development Goals to be achieved in the next 15 years. But without taming the driving force of economic growth - destructive pure materialism - the fear of being in the world in 15 years with even worse environmental conditions than today is by no means unfounded.

Considering the above, the Committee sincerely supports the initiative of the current presidents to draft and coordinate the preparation of a new and ambitious report, the purpose of which is to warn mankind of the impending difficulties caused by the current state of affairs.

And now a few words about the unusual title. The English expression “Come on” has several meanings. In colloquial language, it is often spelled "C'mon" and means "do not try to deceive me." In this vein, Chapters 1 and 2 of the book are written. We do not want to be deceived by the usual description of reality and the usual advice that is not capable of making the world better. Or outdated doctrines. Another meaning of the title is very optimistic: “Come on, join us!”. This value is more appropriate for Chapter 3, which causes our admiration for their real solutions. Thus, the structure of the book reflects both meanings in the indicated order (of course, this expression has other meanings, sometimes even coarse ones, but we are not involved in them!).

June 2017. Executive Committee of the Club of Rome. Susana Chacón, Enrico Giovannini, Alexander Likhotal, Hunter L. Lovins, Graeme Maxton, Sheila Murray, Roberto Pechchi (Roberto Peccei), Jørgen Randers, Reto Ringer (Reto Ringger), a companion

Short description

Peace with a man at the head can still achieve a common bright future. For it to come, we must stop subjecting our planet to degradation. We are firmly convinced that this is achievable, although the longer we delay, the more difficult this task becomes. Current trends are far from sustainable development goals. Continuing generally accepted growth will lead to severe conflicts when confronted with the natural boundaries of the planet. An economy that is tightly controlled by a financial system with its inherent speculative operations will increase the difference in wealth and incomes of people.

The process of increasing the population of the planet must be stabilized in the near future, not only for environmental, but also for socio-economic reasons. Too many people today have confusion, chaos and uncertainty. Deep social inequality, collapsed states, fighting conflicts and civil wars, unemployment and mass migration condemn hundreds of millions of people to life in fear and despair.

The UN unanimously adopted Agenda 2030, which aims to overcome these challenges. However, the successful implementation of 11 socio-economic goals of the agenda is likely to make it impossible to achieve 3 environmental goals, namely, stabilizing climate change, restoring oceans and halting the degradation of biodiversity. The only way to prevent such a development is the use of an integrated approach in determining the course, leaving in the past today's ossified structures.

Chapter 1 of this book presents an analysis of today's counter-sustainable development trends, which are commonly referred to as the common word “Anthropocene” - the century of human primacy in all planetary aspects, including with regard to biogeochemical composition. A “prosperous future for everyone” requires that economic well-being is not achieved at the expense of the deterioration of natural resources, especially in the field of agriculture, and does not lead to air pollution. The book proposes to question the legitimacy of the absolute sovereignty of states, given the global scale of the consequences of those or other actions.

Chapter 2 offers a deeper analysis describing the fundamental crisis of philosophical thought, given such a complex environment. The chapter begins with Pope Francis’s Laudato Sí district message. The basis of modern religions and popular beliefs, as well as our economic system, was formed during the times of the “empty world” (Herman Daly) and does not correspond to today's “complete world.” Capitalism, as we know it, aims to maximize short-term gain because of it, we are moving in the wrong direction - towards an increasingly destabilized climate and degrading ecosystems. And despite all the knowledge that is available to us today, we are not able to change this course, literally bringing planet Earth to the destruction At the end of Chapter 2, a conclusion is drawn on the need for a new Enlightenment era, corresponding to “full peace" and sustainable development. In the new era, the virtues of balance, not dogma, will dominate. We especially note the importance of balance between people and nature, between short and long term. between public and private interests. Chapter 2 can be considered the most revolutionary part of the book.

Can the problems of the natural systems of the planet wait until all of humanity shares the values ​​of the new Enlightenment? No, says Chapter 3, we must act now. This is completely doable. We offer an optimistic, although slightly unsystematic, selection of the opportunities that are already available: decentralized clean energy, jobs in the trend of sustainable development in each country and the universal elimination of human well-being from combustible fuel, basic resources and rare minerals. Pragmatic political decisions were noted, including in the area of ​​the financial system. Framework conditions should help ensure that technologies that promote sustainable development are truly beneficial, to encourage investors to invest in long-term projects and solutions.
The book ends with an invitation to readers and critics to take part in the sustainable development of the world society in any of a variety of ways.

Chapter 1

C'mon! I do not need to say that current trends are related to sustainable development!

Introduction: Disorder in the world

We all know that the world is in crisis. Scientists tell us that almost half of the fertile lands have been depleted over the past 150 years (1. Arsenault, 2014), about 90% of fish resources are overfished and there is a massive decline in populations of many fish species (2. FAO, 2016). Climate resistance is in serious danger (hereinafter referred to in § 1.5 and 3.7), and the Earth is now passing the sixth period of mass extinction in its history (3. Kolbert, 2014).

Probably the most accurate description of the environmental situation was made in 2012 in the Imperative for Action (4. Blue Planet Prize Laureates, 2012), made by all 18 winners (until 2012) of the Blue Planet Prize, including Gro Harlem Brundland ( Gro Harlem Brundtland), James Hansen (James Hansen), Amory Lovins, James Lovstok (James Lovelock) and Susan Solomon. His main message is the following: “A person’s ability to act is often ahead of his ability to analyze. As a result, civilization is confronted with a perfect storm of problems due to population growth, consumption growth of the rich, the use of environmentally harmful technologies and the growth of inequality. The rapidly deteriorating biophysical situation is hardly noticed by the world community, which is befuddled with the idea that the economy can physically grow forever. ”

1.1.1 Various types of crises and feelings of helplessness

The crisis is not cyclical, but it is growing. And it is not limited by the nature around us. There is also a social crisis, a political and cultural, moral crisis, as well as a crisis of democracy, ideologies and capitalism. The crisis is also expressed in deepening poverty in many countries and in the loss of work by a significant part of the population around the world. Billions of people are susceptible to distrust of their own governments (5. The Edelman Trust Barometer, 2017) states that 53% of the population in 28 countries believe that the systems that manage them do not cope with the task; and only 15% think the opposite.)

From a geographical point of view, the symptoms of a crisis are present almost everywhere. The “Arab Spring” entailed a series of military conflicts and civil wars, a serious violation of human rights and the emergence of many millions of refugees. Not a good internal situation in Eritrea, South Sudan, Samali or Honduras. Venezuela and Argentina, which were once the richest countries, today face serious economic challenges, and neighboring Brazil has passed through years of recessions and political turbulence. Russia and several countries of Eastern Europe are struggling with serious economic and political post-communist problems. Japan is struggling to overcome a decade of stagnation, as well as the consequences of the 2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. And the temporary economic growth of several African countries ended after the fall in prices for mineral resources, as well as after several anomalous droughts. In Africa, the alienation of land is very common, as in some other parts of the world, which leads to the fact that millions of people are forced to change their place of residence and become refugees within their own country or in other countries (6. Liberti, 2013).

In the worst case, governments are responding to the current situation by trying to improve their image; at best, they are trying to correct the symptoms of the crisis, and not the cause. The problem is that the political elite around the world depends heavily on investors and powerful private companies.

This suggests that the current crisis is also a crisis of the capitalist system. Since the 1980s, capitalism has shifted from further economic growth in countries, regions, and the world to maximizing profits and to large incremental gains from speculation. In addition, capitalism released in the 1980s. in the Anglo-Saxon world, and in the 1990s and throughout the rest of the world, for the most part it is financial. This trend was supported by mass deregulation and liberalization of the economy (see p.2.4). The term “shareholder value” has come into use in business media all over the world, as if this is a new “word of God” for all economic activity. In fact, it only narrowed the business outlook to short-term goals, often at the expense of social and environmental values. The myth of “shareholder value” was successfully debunked in a recent book by Lynn Stout (7. Stout, 2012).

Another feature of “disorder” is the rise of aggressive right-wing activism against globalization in OECD countries, the so-called populism. Examples of this are Brexit and Trump's victory in the United States. As noted by Farid Zakaria (Fareed Zakaria): “Trump is part of a strong upswing in the populist movement in the Western world. ... In most countries, populism is in opposition, but it is confidently gaining strength, in others, for example, in Hungary, it is now the dominant ideology ”(8. Zacharia, 2016).



Fig. 1.1 Global income growth from 1988 to 2008 21 of one group by income from the poorest to the richest. The curve is similar to the silhouette of an elephant, hence the name “elephant curve” which has become attached to it (Source: prospect.org/article/worlds-inequality ).

This phenomenon of right-wing populism can be explained by a change in the "curve of an elephant" (9. Fig. 1.1, BrankoMilanovic, 2016. milescorak.com/2016/05/18/the-winners-and-losers-of-globalizationbranko-milanovics-new-book- on-inequality-answers-two-important-questions ), showing a reduction in the middle class in developed countries over a 20-year period. While more than half of the world's population enjoys a 60 percent increase in income, the middle class in OECD countries is suffering losses, mainly due to the deindustrialization process and job cuts in the US, UK and other countries. In the US, average income has risen by a modest 1.2% since 1979.

The impressive income growth on the left side of the curve, the back of an elephant, when about two billion people overcame the poverty line, is mainly due to the economic success of China and some other countries. The graph does not clearly show that the richest 1% of the population, even more so, that the eight richest people in the world own as much as the poorest part of the entire population of the planet. This was voiced by representatives of Oxfam (Oxford Committee on Hunger Support) at the 2017 World Economic Forum (10. www.oxfam.org 2017-01-16. Only 8 people own the same half of the world. The name of the work is “Economy for 99 percent. ”Data taken from Credit Suisse Global Wealth Data book, 2016. See also Jamaldeen, 2016).

This "elephant curve" also does not show something else. The Oxford Anti-Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) proposed using the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which would take into account not only income, but also another 10 indicators related to health, education and living standards. Using it, OPHI counted 1.6 billion people living in “multidimensional poverty” in 2016 — twice as many people as if only income was taken into account (11. OPHI, 2017). also Dugarova and Gülasan, 2017).

Thirdly, an analysis of groups of people in each percentage group is necessary for a correct interpretation of the curve. Actually, they are moving. And the curve does not allow to separate people in Russia and Eastern Europe, who lost most of their income in the 1990s, from people in Detroit or Middle England, who also suffered, but for entirely different reasons (12. For more information, see Corlett , 2016). Another fact that is not visible on the graph is the massive transfer of money and income from production and trade to the financial sector (13. Greenwood and Scharfstein, 2013). The authors say that in 1980 people working in the financial sector received as much as people in other industries. In 2006, they received 70% more.

Bruce Bartlett, a junior political advisor in the Reagan-Bush administration, disputes that this financialization is the result of income inequality, wage cuts and weak governance. David Stockman, Reagan's director of the Department of Management and Finance, on the contrary, agrees, describing our current situation as “corrosive financing, which turned the economy into one big casino in the 1970s” (14. Bartlett, 2013; Stockman, 2013).

Populist politicians in OECD countries consider themselves to be the voice of forgotten “ordinary” people and patriots, but they fight and oppose themselves to people representing democratic institutions — which is irony!

The spread of populism in the European Union was strongly promoted by the influx of millions of refugees who came or would like to come to Europe from the Middle East, from Afghanistan and from Africa. Even the most generous European countries have reached their limits in accepting these masses of refugees. The EU institutions were too weak (not powerful enough, as the new nationalists believe) to cope with this “refugee crisis”, which turned into a self-determination crisis in the EU. Previously, the EU was a successful example of unity, which ensured peace and economic prosperity, but today the topic of unity has become less attractive.

Right-wing populist movements or parties consider the EU guilty of all sins. The irony is that to continue the successful development of the EU will require more power, not less. The Union will need border security, a well-funded refugee asylum system to cope with the “refugee crisis” and retain the benefits of the Schengen Agreement. And in order to stabilize the euro, the EU, or at least the eurozone, must work out a common fiscal policy, as suggested by the new French president, Emmanuel Macron. But it is precisely these measures that the populist nationalists are most afraid of.

The EU today is not without flaws. Free market principles began to dominate policymaking, suppressing other important aspects, such as ecology. Remarkably, this was a priority for the UK, because she wanted to see the EU mainly as a union for general trade. In many ways, the ascetic policy has hampered the implementation of many useful investment projects and led to the senseless suffering of many millions of Europeans. Such episodes, of course, should not be used to condemn the main objectives of the EU - peaceful unity, the rule of law, human rights, respect for different cultures and sustainable development.

Raising the issue of the global crisis of democracy, the German Bertelsmann Foundation published an empirical report on 3,000 pages on the progress (or rather, its absence) of democracy and the social economy, which reflects the BTI (Bertelsmann Transformation Index) (15. Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2016. (Main author: Sabine Donner) Politische und soziale Spannungen nehmen weltweit zu). According to the report, in recent years there has been a constant decline in such parameters as civil rights, fair and free elections, freedom of speech, freedom of concentration and separation of powers. At the same time, the number of countries in which authoritarian, extremely religious dogmas rule political thought has increased from 22% to 33%. This report was published before attacks on democracy and civil rights in Turkey in the summer of 2016 or in the Philippines. Symptoms of tyranny spread even in countries with traditionally strong positions of freedom and democracy (16. Snyder, 2017).

Let us briefly turn to another type of crisis. Even not a crisis, but rather an unpleasant feature of such an effective communication tool as “social media”. Being a practical and useful convenient tool for the daily exchange of news, rational opinions, social media at the same time turned into a force that inflames conflicts and blackens innocent people, and spreads post-truthful nonsense. Most of the political debate in social media is a self-sustaining political nonsense, in which the media act as an echo chamber for communities of dejected like-minded people (17. Quattrociocchi et al, 2016). An empirical study was conducted in China, which showed that, among other emotions, anger and indignation spread virally in social media the fastest (18. Fan et al, 2014).

On the Internet and social media, “bots” (short for “robots”) are also being actively distributed, which can distort or destroy messages, produce nonsense and all kinds of false information. There are dozens of types of malicious bots (and networks of bots) that pick up email lists. emails, collect content from sites and use it all without permission, spread viruses and trojans to buy good places at entertainment events, increase the number of views on Youtube and traffic to get more money from advertisers.

But most of all frightening confusion, which is associated with terrorism. In early times, human cruelty poured into military conflicts between countries. But lately, systemic and partly religious conflicts have prevailed, in which terrorist attacks are used to intimidate the population. For most of the 20th century, religions remained calm, not aggressive, and stuck to their geographical boundaries. Now everything is wrong. Partly due to the fact that in a globalized world, the population is moving or forced to leave their native lands, some Islamic factions have expanded their geography and have a strong influence on states, for example, attacking countries like France with its traditions of laicism that prevent religion on politics.

But what is not well represented in the media is the positive role of religions. In Christian Europe, a liberal and tolerant religion became part of European self-determination a hundred years after the discreditation of the Enlightenment, preceding the doctrinal, authoritarian and colonial manifestation of the faith. During the Cold War, Christian goals of social cohesion contributed to building a system of “Western values”, often defined as a “welfare state” or a “social market economy” (for its partial failure, see p.2.4).

Islamic followers, for example, Syrian-born Bassam Tibi, who urge Muslims in Europe to integrate into a democratic society, speak of the favorable and social role of Islam (19. Tibi, 2012). He believes that “Islamic fundamentalism” is incompatible with democracy, although Islam is based on methods of democratic consultation, and Islam was discovered at the very beginning of the Enlightenment in the 12th century, citing Ibn Rushd, known under the Latinized name of Averroes. Chibi, however, is not popular with radical Muslims, to say the least. But to understand the reasons for the radicalization of Islam, we should not forget about the role of the West, in particular the United States, and its intervention in the states of the Middle East.

Some may say that the above problem situations are just a review of the headlines of popular media and they are only the tip of the “mess” iceberg in the world. A deeper and more systemic problem is the stunning speed of technological development, which can easily get out of control. For example, digitalization potentially poses a threat to millions of jobs (see § 11.11.4). Or take, for example, biological sciences and technology. The tremendous acceleration of the development of genetic engineering with CRISPR-Cas9 technology (20. Eg Hsu et al, 2014) scares the possibility of the appearance of monsters or the extinction of species that do not represent practical use for humans. In general, many feel that “progress” has terrible sides and that gin may have already been released from the bottle (see clause 11.11.3).

Without a doubt, it is necessary to analyze and identify in more detail the symptoms and causes of various crises, political, economic, social, technological and environmental. In addition, it is important to understand at what point people begin to feel disoriented when they pay attention to the “mess” reigning in the world, and to remember the moral and even religious aspects of human reaction.

To be continued...

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