What business and users face the struggle of RKN and Telegram? Expert opinions
Your dear editors contacted the experts and found out what the ILV and the cat and mouse game are facing for business and ordinary users.
Here, with whom we talked:
Evgeny Potapov:
Judging by what I see among 350+ clients and telegram-chats (which is more than a thousand people), everyone switched to the proxy and VPN. Mostly switch to Socks. From friends and relatives, who poorly understand what a "socks" is, everything remained online. They set up friends. There is a feeling that the active core of the Telegram both lived and lives, and those who almost did not use it will fall off.
')
Ban IP, most likely, the RKN is trying to put pressure on the GCE and AWS, and for this such large-scale blocks of subnets. Probably, the RKN is seeking the same thing that it has achieved and achieved with Zello - to bring Amazon to the stage when they simply will not open accounts and give resources to Telegram. Perhaps there will be using personal accounts in order to run a crawl, and then it will be infinitely long.
Artem Kozlyuk:
The confrontation between Roskomnadzor and Telegram is also affected by third-party services: banks, retail chains. The lock is already similar to napalm. The ILV does not stop using excess funds and uncovered its gun. Apparently, the task was set clearly: “Do not allow!”. But this has not yet led to real results, as we see.
ILV will continue to make new subnet masks - VPNs, proxies, and various anonymizers will “wet”. They may even begin to carry out a “television attack” on Telegrams in order to discredit, so that “unstable” users themselves turn away from this service. There are ordinary people among the Telegraha audience: our relatives, parents are not only the IT circle. All of them are accustomed to using Telegram in everyday life for communication. They will again be told that “there are enemies around, and these your weekends and tori miss extremism”.
Artyom Gavrichenkov:
At the moment, the account of the blocked addresses is already in the millions. Technically, this process can take a very long time. Both sides, at first glance, have ample resources to maintain their position.
In particular, Telegraf, although it can no longer be placed in part of the Amazon networks, has a number of other solutions: Digital Ocean, CloudFlare and smaller ones.
It is expensive. According to our calculations on similar work, Telegram loses a large amount, up to the order of $ 1 million per day. However, just recently Telegram received investments that exceed these costs by many orders of magnitude. And besides, in Telegraf they can view the situation as a serious investment in their own reputation, showing that they can spend arbitrary budgets in order not to obey the requirements of state authorities.
The Federal Service for Supervision of Communications also has resources, and they use them, blocking the network behind the network. It remains for businesses operating in Russia to keep their monitoring tools up to date, as any address can be blocked right now.
Philippe Kulin:
I find it difficult to predict psychos. And besides "freaked out" I can not call it. Judging by the fact that addresses are added up to this point, you might think that this is an act of intimidation towards Google and Amazon.
It is not clear who will surrender first. For Google and Amazon, this will also be a blow to reputation. I think they will try to negotiate. But here we are faced with "freaked out." I'm not sure that the Russian market is critical for them. Although tangible. But they can make some concessions. There is a possibility that now Amazon and Google users will also come into business. And by no means on the side of the RKN.
Objectively, Russia is a small country. The territories on the Internet mean nothing. I can not say that this is an invisible part of the market, but the loss is experienced. It all depends on how far the PKN is ready to negotiate and how far it will be.
Artem Kozlyuk:
Now they [Roskomnadzor] agree with Google and Apple to exclude applications from their stores. It is not clear whether they will succeed or not, but, unfortunately, there was a sad precedent regarding LinkedIn. It was removed from both stores. And, perhaps, Roskomnadzor will be able to convince the IT giants to meet. But while the question is open.
Philippe Kulin:
It's a difficult question. Both Apple and Google are trying to comply with local laws, and remove applications from the store in the regions. But. They want to comply with local laws and look at them. Zello is not removed, for example. And the movie Navalny about the fish. They may consider that even under local law there are no grounds for such a request. In any case, RAEC analyst Karen Ghazaryan also thinks about it, and I agree with him.
Evgeny Potapov:
Exactly deleted. They calmly follow court decisions, and I think that in this case too.
Artem Gavrichenkov:
Precedents are, LinkedIn deleted. But it is difficult to speak for each company separately. This will have little effect on the outcome of the fight. As I understand, it was for this that Telegram was prepared. Pavel Durov declared: in case of temporary problems with the application, do not delete it. Throwing out an application from a Russian app store or play market is one thing, but it is ALREADY installed in a wide circle of people. Moreover, this circle is growing on all these news. And by the time the solution appears, it can no longer be deleted.
Artem Kozlyuk:
Those whose business has affected blocking so many addresses should go to court. I know representatives of services who are ready to enter into such a confrontation with the RKN and prove that Roskomnadzor does not have the right to use the means of "napalm" to the network addresses. By acting in this way, the RKN may provoke losses to business and even the Russian economy. It will be difficult for foreign companies to develop business in a country where such chaos reigns.
If a business wants to continue to grow in our country, it is worth using judicial tools to protect itself. Even in our judicial system there were judges who made adequate decisions. The more such claims there are, the higher the efficiency of the processes will be. ”
Evgeny Potapov:
Now there are almost 20 million IP in the database, but what is interesting is that we don’t see big problems. Companies that are focused on the Russian Federation, do not live in AWS / GCE for a long time, almost all. And companies that are not focused on the Russian Federation, all the same.
Artem Kozlyuk:
In general, petitions on change.org work well, when it comes to no global issues like changing the law or canceling the blocking of a known resource. It is rather a method of attracting media attention to the problem.
Change.org is effective for solving some local problems. For example, "We closed the kindergarten - we need it", or "We do not have enough doctors in the hospital - hire staff." There are hundreds of examples where petitions on change.org allowed solving a private, municipal problem - that’s a fact. But I cannot remember successful precedents of solving global problems.
Nevertheless, the institution of the petition itself is important, although in Russia it is still legally irrelevant - the collected signatures do not affect anything. Even on the ROI portal, you can collect a hundred thousand signatures, which we once did successfully. You can hold meetings with the Open Government where your petitions will be considered and thank you for drawing public attention to the problem. But they cannot recommend repealing laws that have just been passed. "Thank you, come again." Therefore, as long as there is no law on the mechanisms and instruments of “e-democracy”, petitions will be in the “gray” zone.
Philippe Kulin:
The RKN will not reverse the decision. Of course there is an option (and it is probable) that now some businesses will represent their interests in the Presidential Administration, and from there Zharov will “fly in”. But not yet.
Artem Kozlyuk:
A normal user who uses a VPN or proxy is not in danger. Currently, Russian legislation does not provide for liability for the use of anonymizers and any other traffic tunneling systems. Even the owners of VPN servers are not responsible. The maximum that our legislation allows to do is blocking. A punishment for the owners and even more so - users - is not provided.
Nevertheless, we are taking big steps to ensure that such laws appear in our country. First, they introduced categories of prohibited information, then laws appeared that limit the tools for circumventing censorship. The next logical step on the part of the state may be new laws that introduce penalties for users themselves for attempting to use such tools.
Artyom Gavrichenkov:
I asked this question to a lawyer. At the moment, the legislation does not provide for exactly any sanctions for individuals or legal entities for using methods of circumventing the blocking. There is a restriction only on the provision of such services.
Here, with whom we talked:
- Artem Kozlyuk ( Temych ) , head of the public organization "RosKomSvoboda".
- Yevgeny Potapov ( eapotapov ) , CEO of ITSumma - the company that is responsible for the smooth operation of Habr.
- Artyom Gavrichenkov ( ximaera ) , Technical Director, Qrator Labs. These guys have been protecting TechMedia, Tilda, Ivi.ru and a bunch of other companies for many years from DDoS attacks.
- Philip Kulin ( schors ) , hoster from St. Petersburg. Leads the same service counting blocked addresses.
How is it going to end?
Evgeny Potapov:
Judging by what I see among 350+ clients and telegram-chats (which is more than a thousand people), everyone switched to the proxy and VPN. Mostly switch to Socks. From friends and relatives, who poorly understand what a "socks" is, everything remained online. They set up friends. There is a feeling that the active core of the Telegram both lived and lives, and those who almost did not use it will fall off.
')
Ban IP, most likely, the RKN is trying to put pressure on the GCE and AWS, and for this such large-scale blocks of subnets. Probably, the RKN is seeking the same thing that it has achieved and achieved with Zello - to bring Amazon to the stage when they simply will not open accounts and give resources to Telegram. Perhaps there will be using personal accounts in order to run a crawl, and then it will be infinitely long.
Artem Kozlyuk:
The confrontation between Roskomnadzor and Telegram is also affected by third-party services: banks, retail chains. The lock is already similar to napalm. The ILV does not stop using excess funds and uncovered its gun. Apparently, the task was set clearly: “Do not allow!”. But this has not yet led to real results, as we see.
ILV will continue to make new subnet masks - VPNs, proxies, and various anonymizers will “wet”. They may even begin to carry out a “television attack” on Telegrams in order to discredit, so that “unstable” users themselves turn away from this service. There are ordinary people among the Telegraha audience: our relatives, parents are not only the IT circle. All of them are accustomed to using Telegram in everyday life for communication. They will again be told that “there are enemies around, and these your weekends and tori miss extremism”.
Artyom Gavrichenkov:
At the moment, the account of the blocked addresses is already in the millions. Technically, this process can take a very long time. Both sides, at first glance, have ample resources to maintain their position.
In particular, Telegraf, although it can no longer be placed in part of the Amazon networks, has a number of other solutions: Digital Ocean, CloudFlare and smaller ones.
It is expensive. According to our calculations on similar work, Telegram loses a large amount, up to the order of $ 1 million per day. However, just recently Telegram received investments that exceed these costs by many orders of magnitude. And besides, in Telegraf they can view the situation as a serious investment in their own reputation, showing that they can spend arbitrary budgets in order not to obey the requirements of state authorities.
The Federal Service for Supervision of Communications also has resources, and they use them, blocking the network behind the network. It remains for businesses operating in Russia to keep their monitoring tools up to date, as any address can be blocked right now.
Philippe Kulin:
I find it difficult to predict psychos. And besides "freaked out" I can not call it. Judging by the fact that addresses are added up to this point, you might think that this is an act of intimidation towards Google and Amazon.
It is not clear who will surrender first. For Google and Amazon, this will also be a blow to reputation. I think they will try to negotiate. But here we are faced with "freaked out." I'm not sure that the Russian market is critical for them. Although tangible. But they can make some concessions. There is a possibility that now Amazon and Google users will also come into business. And by no means on the side of the RKN.
Objectively, Russia is a small country. The territories on the Internet mean nothing. I can not say that this is an invisible part of the market, but the loss is experienced. It all depends on how far the PKN is ready to negotiate and how far it will be.
Will the app be removed from the App Store and Google Play?
Artem Kozlyuk:
Now they [Roskomnadzor] agree with Google and Apple to exclude applications from their stores. It is not clear whether they will succeed or not, but, unfortunately, there was a sad precedent regarding LinkedIn. It was removed from both stores. And, perhaps, Roskomnadzor will be able to convince the IT giants to meet. But while the question is open.
Philippe Kulin:
It's a difficult question. Both Apple and Google are trying to comply with local laws, and remove applications from the store in the regions. But. They want to comply with local laws and look at them. Zello is not removed, for example. And the movie Navalny about the fish. They may consider that even under local law there are no grounds for such a request. In any case, RAEC analyst Karen Ghazaryan also thinks about it, and I agree with him.
Evgeny Potapov:
Exactly deleted. They calmly follow court decisions, and I think that in this case too.
Artem Gavrichenkov:
Precedents are, LinkedIn deleted. But it is difficult to speak for each company separately. This will have little effect on the outcome of the fight. As I understand, it was for this that Telegram was prepared. Pavel Durov declared: in case of temporary problems with the application, do not delete it. Throwing out an application from a Russian app store or play market is one thing, but it is ALREADY installed in a wide circle of people. Moreover, this circle is growing on all these news. And by the time the solution appears, it can no longer be deleted.
What to do business?
Artem Kozlyuk:
Those whose business has affected blocking so many addresses should go to court. I know representatives of services who are ready to enter into such a confrontation with the RKN and prove that Roskomnadzor does not have the right to use the means of "napalm" to the network addresses. By acting in this way, the RKN may provoke losses to business and even the Russian economy. It will be difficult for foreign companies to develop business in a country where such chaos reigns.
If a business wants to continue to grow in our country, it is worth using judicial tools to protect itself. Even in our judicial system there were judges who made adequate decisions. The more such claims there are, the higher the efficiency of the processes will be. ”
Evgeny Potapov:
Now there are almost 20 million IP in the database, but what is interesting is that we don’t see big problems. Companies that are focused on the Russian Federation, do not live in AWS / GCE for a long time, almost all. And companies that are not focused on the Russian Federation, all the same.
Does the petition on Change.org make sense?
Artem Kozlyuk:
In general, petitions on change.org work well, when it comes to no global issues like changing the law or canceling the blocking of a known resource. It is rather a method of attracting media attention to the problem.
Change.org is effective for solving some local problems. For example, "We closed the kindergarten - we need it", or "We do not have enough doctors in the hospital - hire staff." There are hundreds of examples where petitions on change.org allowed solving a private, municipal problem - that’s a fact. But I cannot remember successful precedents of solving global problems.
Nevertheless, the institution of the petition itself is important, although in Russia it is still legally irrelevant - the collected signatures do not affect anything. Even on the ROI portal, you can collect a hundred thousand signatures, which we once did successfully. You can hold meetings with the Open Government where your petitions will be considered and thank you for drawing public attention to the problem. But they cannot recommend repealing laws that have just been passed. "Thank you, come again." Therefore, as long as there is no law on the mechanisms and instruments of “e-democracy”, petitions will be in the “gray” zone.
Philippe Kulin:
The RKN will not reverse the decision. Of course there is an option (and it is probable) that now some businesses will represent their interests in the Presidential Administration, and from there Zharov will “fly in”. But not yet.
Whether there will be consequences for physical. individuals for using a proxy?
Artem Kozlyuk:
A normal user who uses a VPN or proxy is not in danger. Currently, Russian legislation does not provide for liability for the use of anonymizers and any other traffic tunneling systems. Even the owners of VPN servers are not responsible. The maximum that our legislation allows to do is blocking. A punishment for the owners and even more so - users - is not provided.
Nevertheless, we are taking big steps to ensure that such laws appear in our country. First, they introduced categories of prohibited information, then laws appeared that limit the tools for circumventing censorship. The next logical step on the part of the state may be new laws that introduce penalties for users themselves for attempting to use such tools.
Artyom Gavrichenkov:
I asked this question to a lawyer. At the moment, the legislation does not provide for exactly any sanctions for individuals or legal entities for using methods of circumventing the blocking. There is a restriction only on the provision of such services.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/353692/
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