Why IT wages will start falling soon?
In recent years, a real hype has risen around IT, as is now fashionable to say. Universities open new specialties to fill the “staff shortage” in this segment of the labor market, experts at various levels predict an increase in demand for programmers and talk about the “information age”, and “success stories” of people who solved all their problems after retraining . At the same time, the salaries of IT specialists are several times higher than the salaries of specialists from other sectors of the economy with a similar level of complexity of tasks, which only stirs interest in this area. Is it too good to be true?
I decided to ask myself this question and analyze the risks that threaten the labor market, and therefore I, because I am also an IT specialist with 6 years of experience. Unfortunately, the conclusions were not very pleasant and it is very difficult for me to believe that tomorrow everything can change dramatically, but there are risks and prerequisites and it is foolish to ignore them. Let's sort everything out by points:
Probably many of you have repeatedly heard about the terrible shortage of personnel in IT and feels in-demand specialists who are certainly not threatened by any competition. And now let's look at the plans of the government:
The problem is that now only about 500 thousand IT specialists work in Russia (the head of the Ministry of Communications and Mass Media is confirmed by various studies), and this is quite enough for the normal functioning of the business in the country, and dozens of resumes come from applicants for each job and the companies have the ability to choose their own candidates. I'm not even talking about the fact that programmers are needed only in million-plus cities, and in the rest of the country they live well without them, while doctors and teachers are needed everywhere.
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If we increase the number of IT specialists by 3 or even 5 times, as suggested by the Ministry of Communications and the IIDF, we will get a supersaturated labor market with a low labor cost, which is beneficial for business as it reduces the cost of developing and supporting software solutions.
All this is a theory, so I propose to move on to practice. In recent years, more and more training areas for IT specialists have opened up in universities, and the competition for IT specialties is now significantly higher than for other training areas. After 5 years, we will receive a large number of new personnel who will also want to take a place in the sun and will diligently improve their skills. In addition, there is already very high competition among junior specialists. If 5 years ago it was enough to learn the syntax of the language and several related technologies in order to pass the majority of interviews and get a salary of 50,000 rubles from the start, now the requirements have risen greatly and salaries start from about 30,000 rubles (judging by a recent study published in Habré ). Accordingly, the salary expectations in the future, most of these specialists will be lower, even as they develop in their field - there is pure psychology and light market pressure.
We all remember how painful the last crisis hit the country's economy. However, the IT sector has hardly suffered, and in some cases even won, although a temporary reduction in vacancies did occur. Naturally, this did not go unnoticed by specialists from other areas who have lost some of their income or even a good job. We all know that now there are many courses for retraining in the field of IT, but few understand that these courses are quite smart people and successfully complete them, and then try to find a job and some succeed. Needless to say that their salary expectations are lower, and the desire is much higher than those who work in the field for a long time. This also has an impact on the market and now a huge number of people are striving to “enter IT” from other professions under the slogans of IT propaganda and promises of golden mountains.
This is hard to believe, but the liberalization of the labor market and the massive transfer of employees to remote work is also a threat to the income of IT professionals.
Why? But because conditional programmer Vasya from Kursk will be happy to earn 50,000 rubles a month, while Vitya from Moscow does not want to work for less than 100,000 rubles a month, and they have the same level of knowledge. Surprisingly, not everyone wants to live in Moscow or even in Thailand and there are a lot of reasons for this, such as family, friends, housing prices, ecology, love for a small homeland, and so on. I think this topic deserves a separate article, but personally I know a large number of people who live in Moscow against their will.
In 2017, Beeline conducted a similar experiment and sent a large number of employees to a remote location. In short, the experiment was a success and both sides are satisfied. Of course, one company cannot have a significant impact on the market, but if the mass introduction of “modern practices” begins, the picture may change.
Why pay expensive rent for an office in Moscow, when the development department can be moved to the region, and even save on salaries? This process is slow, but it is moving and there are already positive precedents, although I admit that there are very few of them. In this case, IT companies are happy to work with local universities, and they have a great opportunity to intercept graduates before they leave to conquer Moscow. So if the crisis is prolonged or aggravated, then this scenario is quite working and could threaten the salaries of IT professionals.
IT is an amazing, interesting, but very rapidly changing field of activity. One technology, not having managed to firmly establish itself on the market, is already being crowded out by another, new versions of existing frameworks are constantly coming out and new solutions are being introduced. The knowledge and experience that you have gained today will not be needed in 10 years. Not everyone can run all his life to stand still, because often there is no time to study at work, and after work it is not always possible, because a person has friends and a hobby, and eventually a family appears. At the same time, yesterday's students are very motivated to learn new technologies and over the years they will step on your heels. After a while, their value in the market can equal yours or even exceed them. There are exceptions, but as you know, exceptions only confirm the rules.
Do you think business does not notice high wages in IT and does not seek to reduce them? Of course, they are actively thinking and working on this problem. Moreover, the people who run the business have much more information about what is happening around you and we, respectively, have more leverage. What decisions they come up with - one can only guess.
I think that all these factors will seriously change the labor market already in 5 years and the salaries of IT specialists will start moving towards the median salary in the region. Sooner or later this will happen, especially since it has already happened with other professions.
What to do next? Everything is individual here and I cannot give general advice, but as they say “forewarned is forearmed”.
And how do you see today's labor market?
I decided to ask myself this question and analyze the risks that threaten the labor market, and therefore I, because I am also an IT specialist with 6 years of experience. Unfortunately, the conclusions were not very pleasant and it is very difficult for me to believe that tomorrow everything can change dramatically, but there are risks and prerequisites and it is foolish to ignore them. Let's sort everything out by points:
Lack of personnel - a myth
Probably many of you have repeatedly heard about the terrible shortage of personnel in IT and feels in-demand specialists who are certainly not threatened by any competition. And now let's look at the plans of the government:
- In 2017, the head of the Ministry of Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Nikiforov, said that the country needed another 1 million programmers.
- In 2018, the Russian Internet Initiatives Foundation already speaks of a shortage of 2 million IT specialists.
The problem is that now only about 500 thousand IT specialists work in Russia (the head of the Ministry of Communications and Mass Media is confirmed by various studies), and this is quite enough for the normal functioning of the business in the country, and dozens of resumes come from applicants for each job and the companies have the ability to choose their own candidates. I'm not even talking about the fact that programmers are needed only in million-plus cities, and in the rest of the country they live well without them, while doctors and teachers are needed everywhere.
')
If we increase the number of IT specialists by 3 or even 5 times, as suggested by the Ministry of Communications and the IIDF, we will get a supersaturated labor market with a low labor cost, which is beneficial for business as it reduces the cost of developing and supporting software solutions.
All this is a theory, so I propose to move on to practice. In recent years, more and more training areas for IT specialists have opened up in universities, and the competition for IT specialties is now significantly higher than for other training areas. After 5 years, we will receive a large number of new personnel who will also want to take a place in the sun and will diligently improve their skills. In addition, there is already very high competition among junior specialists. If 5 years ago it was enough to learn the syntax of the language and several related technologies in order to pass the majority of interviews and get a salary of 50,000 rubles from the start, now the requirements have risen greatly and salaries start from about 30,000 rubles (judging by a recent study published in Habré ). Accordingly, the salary expectations in the future, most of these specialists will be lower, even as they develop in their field - there is pure psychology and light market pressure.
A crisis
We all remember how painful the last crisis hit the country's economy. However, the IT sector has hardly suffered, and in some cases even won, although a temporary reduction in vacancies did occur. Naturally, this did not go unnoticed by specialists from other areas who have lost some of their income or even a good job. We all know that now there are many courses for retraining in the field of IT, but few understand that these courses are quite smart people and successfully complete them, and then try to find a job and some succeed. Needless to say that their salary expectations are lower, and the desire is much higher than those who work in the field for a long time. This also has an impact on the market and now a huge number of people are striving to “enter IT” from other professions under the slogans of IT propaganda and promises of golden mountains.
Remote work
This is hard to believe, but the liberalization of the labor market and the massive transfer of employees to remote work is also a threat to the income of IT professionals.
Why? But because conditional programmer Vasya from Kursk will be happy to earn 50,000 rubles a month, while Vitya from Moscow does not want to work for less than 100,000 rubles a month, and they have the same level of knowledge. Surprisingly, not everyone wants to live in Moscow or even in Thailand and there are a lot of reasons for this, such as family, friends, housing prices, ecology, love for a small homeland, and so on. I think this topic deserves a separate article, but personally I know a large number of people who live in Moscow against their will.
In 2017, Beeline conducted a similar experiment and sent a large number of employees to a remote location. In short, the experiment was a success and both sides are satisfied. Of course, one company cannot have a significant impact on the market, but if the mass introduction of “modern practices” begins, the picture may change.
Expansion Regions
Why pay expensive rent for an office in Moscow, when the development department can be moved to the region, and even save on salaries? This process is slow, but it is moving and there are already positive precedents, although I admit that there are very few of them. In this case, IT companies are happy to work with local universities, and they have a great opportunity to intercept graduates before they leave to conquer Moscow. So if the crisis is prolonged or aggravated, then this scenario is quite working and could threaten the salaries of IT professionals.
Obsolescence of knowledge
IT is an amazing, interesting, but very rapidly changing field of activity. One technology, not having managed to firmly establish itself on the market, is already being crowded out by another, new versions of existing frameworks are constantly coming out and new solutions are being introduced. The knowledge and experience that you have gained today will not be needed in 10 years. Not everyone can run all his life to stand still, because often there is no time to study at work, and after work it is not always possible, because a person has friends and a hobby, and eventually a family appears. At the same time, yesterday's students are very motivated to learn new technologies and over the years they will step on your heels. After a while, their value in the market can equal yours or even exceed them. There are exceptions, but as you know, exceptions only confirm the rules.
Cost reduction
Do you think business does not notice high wages in IT and does not seek to reduce them? Of course, they are actively thinking and working on this problem. Moreover, the people who run the business have much more information about what is happening around you and we, respectively, have more leverage. What decisions they come up with - one can only guess.
Conclusion
I think that all these factors will seriously change the labor market already in 5 years and the salaries of IT specialists will start moving towards the median salary in the region. Sooner or later this will happen, especially since it has already happened with other professions.
What to do next? Everything is individual here and I cannot give general advice, but as they say “forewarned is forearmed”.
And how do you see today's labor market?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/349112/
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