The beginning of a new era of cryptocurrency? CME Group exchanges issue bitcoin futures

On Wednesday, November 29, various media, citing Bloomberg sources , reported that on December 18, a group of Chicago stock exchanges CME Group and the Cantor Exchange release bitcoin futures. It was also announced that the operating director of NASDAQ (the largest technology exchange in the world), Adena Friedman, said that her structure was considering launching trading in futures and bitcoin options. Now this question is in an early stage of discussion. According to Friedman, the management of the exchange plans to launch sales in the second quarter of 2018.

What does this mean for cryptorink?

If you go back to historians and recall the manifesto of Satoshi Nakamoto, then Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were considered as an alternative and, as a result, replacement with fiat currencies (real money). Nearly ten years of cryptocurrency development showed the gradual formation of bitcoin and altcoins, but not in the direction in which the anonym Nakamoto suggested. Now global financial institutions have recognized Bitcoin at least as an object of investment and a tool to save money. However, do not confuse this with the recognition of Bitcoin as a means of payment: now, no one is paying with gold bars or coins. Therefore, bitcoin has about the same status in the eyes of traders: an instrument of accumulation and multiplication. It is for this reason that futures (and possibly options) will be traded on the stock exchange, and not BTC / USD or BTC / EUR currency pairs.

The steps taken by the CME Group and Cantor Exchange to issue BTC futures unequivocally show the interest of the traditional financial sector in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was chosen as the largest (in terms of trading volume and capitalization) token, and not just because it sets record values ​​over the past six months. It is also the most reliable in terms of capital investment: if BTC collapses, then the entire crypto market collapses, while the fall of conventional ETH or Waves will not be reflected much on bitcoin.
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So what, are we on our way to $ 20,000 per coin?

Definitely predict the course of Bitcoin is now impossible. Its value and capitalization is constantly growing, but the field of cryptocurrency is still an extremely volatile market, which is strongly influenced by any negative news or too intense growth. Even the participants of the crypto market themselves are wary of this area, and any careless statements by politicians, regulators, or simply specialists respected in financial circles lead to an instant negative reaction. At the same time, the cryptophone always reacts violently to positive news.

Recall that the information that the NASDAQ is considering the introduction of bitcoin futures, appeared on Wednesday, the 29th. According to the CoinMarketCap charts, on the eve of the 28th, Bitcoin took another psychological milestone of $ 10,000 per coin.


BTC course schedule from November 26 to December 5

Usually, after taking such heights of value by any exchange asset (currency, security, cryptographic token), a correction can be observed, but the very next day BTC continued the unreasonable, at first glance, growth and “pierced” the ceiling of $ 11,500 per coin. News about the position of the NASDAQ, obviously, played a significant role in this. This did not save Bitcoin from the correction and fall in the following days, but now the rate is relatively established around $ 11,000. The closer the launch of trading in futures and options on CME Group sites, the more support this event will have for Bitcoin. Further growth of cryptocurrency depends on how much money comes from CME Group and Cantor in Bitcoin, which will show how much traditional stock brokers trust the new instrument. But by December 18, we may well see a course of about $ 13,000 per token. There is potential for such growth.

How is Bitcoin Cash and other Altcoins?

A significant increase in the rate of BCH or other altcoins on the background of the release of futures and options on BTC can not be said. His course reacts weakly to the growth of Bitcoin (as can be seen from the graphs) and only the corresponding actions regarding him from the CME Group, which were taken with Bitcoin, can significantly shift it. Quite the contrary: the growth of Bitcoin puts pressure on other cryptocurrencies, because so far this market (relatively fiat) has a very limited volume. When the value of Bitcoin grows, it acts as a kind of “vacuum cleaner” for the liquidity of the entire cryptocurrency market, reducing the attractiveness of altcoins.

It should be understood that if stock brokers show interest in a new futures, then all their money will be “poured” into the capitalization of BTC alone and will not go beyond it. The situation with the Altcoins will continue: the only source of their liquidity and capitalization is the money of private cryptocurrency holders.

Will these events increase the volume of cryptocurrency trading?

Sure, yes. But the main question: how strong? Because CME Group has chosen not the most active period for the introduction of bitcoin futures. The whole situation around the auction is complicated by the coming Christmas and New Year holidays, before which many brokers take profits and take a waiting position. So, some sensible conclusions about the impact of the CME Group on the Bitcoin rate can only be made in January-February 2018, when the markets return to active work. We will have a window from mid-January to mid-February - one month - after which the markets will move smoothly to the stage when the Chinese New Year is celebrated. Token holders from China now have a huge impact on cryptocurrencies (both as holders and as miners), but as other areas show, during the New Year on the Chinese calendar, China's business activity freezes. It will be strange to expect that they will change their habits for the sake of Bitcoin - China’s own New Year is of great importance and at least it’s not foolish to reckon with it.

So while all the positives from the release of futures and options for Bitcoin are offset by the banal calendar and the schedule of holidays and vacations.

What other exchanges can enter bitcoin futures trading?

If the CME Group brokers show enough interest in Bitcoin futures, it can speed up their introduction on the NASDAQ. One cannot speak about any general interest in cryptocurrency on the part of other classical exchanges. For a long time, cryptocurrencies were considered to be a very risky (and, in some ways, toxic) investment tools, and in order to overcome this negative trend, one growth rate is not enough. If in the next six months the situation with the burglary of any major cryptobirge or the theft of tokens recurs, it can throw the whole sphere back. Now funds and brokers are not ready to invest too much in crypto machines. Instead of a full-fledged interest, which we can observe in the securities market, the cryptosphere is regarded as an experimental platform, with which only safe amounts are allocated for work.

Other exchanges will show interest only if the explosive popularity of bitcoin futures on the CME Group exchanges (which is unlikely for a number of objective reasons) or if serious progress occurs in the field of regulation and legalization of the entire segment at the level of the main world regulators. NASDAQ should also play its role - if this exchange delays the issue of bitcoin futures, then others will follow its example. There is no significant breakthrough for the sector so far, so in the next six months or a year we should not expect to trade futures for Bitcoin or other altcoins other than the CME Group exchanges.

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