Cloud technology and my future
Probably, I am not the only one who is asking himself the following question: what will happen to my profession in five years? As in the rapid spread of cloud technologies, I see an existential threat to my professional future. Perhaps there is a simple answer to my question that I do not know, or am I an incorrigible pessimist?
There is a concept of disruptive technology (Disruptive Technologie). This term is most often described in the following words: “destructive (disruptive) technology is an innovation that can completely supplant existing technologies, a product or a service.”
So, a little excursion into our recent past. About 30 years ago in each bureau you could see a lot of typewriters. During its rather long history (more than 170 years), typewriters have gone all the way from fully mechanical to electronic-mechanical. But who among us can remember the name of the models and their manufacturers? We currently use a computer for writing texts and a printer for printing them. Which, incidentally, is no longer modern and does not serve the interests of environmental protection. A paperless office is our future. The office ... who is talking about the office today? But this is also not modern. Home Office is our future, isn't it?
But let's continue the conversation about destructive technologies. For which of us the word weaver is perceived as a real profession? For most, this is a common last name .
')
The profession, whose representatives fed their families for many millennia, was rationalized with the introduction of weaving machines.
In my opinion, in the near future, destructive technology will hit the automotive industry hardest. About a hundred years ago, the car successfully replaced the wagon (carriage). Some manufacturers of carts even managed for some time to become a car manufacturer. For quite a short time, automobile production has become one of the leading sectors of the economy, still providing employment for millions of people around the world.
Let's talk a little bit more about the auto industry. The invention of the assembly line has revolutionized the production of automobiles, but also caused the first small job cuts. The use of an assembly line has reduced costs, reduced costs and increased production. Unnecessary employees were retained and engaged in other segments of the production chain.
However, the introduction of robots at different stages of production has reduced the number of jobs. From my point of view, the best times for the automotive industry are over.
The spread of electric cars will fundamentally change the entire industry (as long as the raw materials for battery production are sufficient). Hardest hit various suppliers of components.
How many parts does an average car with an internal combustion engine consist of? Depending on the configuration, of more than 10,000 parts. And the electric car? Even the “classic” mechanical brakes are no longer needed in the future, since they interfere with the idea of ​​autonomous driving. By the way, is not autonomous driving intended to replace the driver with a computer?
Imagine a chain of suppliers, the last link of which supplies the internal combustion engine as the final product. It all starts with the extraction of raw materials, their processing, the development and production of individual components, the assembly of individual components into more complex blocks and, at the end of this long journey, parts are assembled into the engine. And now the whole production chain from a bird's eye view. Imagine a huge network of small and large enterprises. Each enterprise is much more than production facilities, office buildings and their equipment. After all, this is a bakery, and a grocery store, and a post office, and doctors, and a bus company, and all the other service providers nearby. All of them are links of one chain that breaks.
But don't worry. At first, the spread of electric vehicles will create new additional jobs, and not destroy existing ones. As long as the sales figures of “classic” cars remain constant, and the “childhood diseases” of electric vehicles are not cured, the automotive industry will continue to be one of the largest employers.
We are gradually approaching our main topic. The next example of destructive technology is the so-called fourth industrial revolution. Like the revolution of the past, it does not cause me storms of positive emotions. Revolutions have always been accompanied by significant losses, both financial and human.
Industry 4.0 is an automation that is perfected. This is an attempt to automate production processes as far as possible throughout their entire cycle, from development to logistics and marketing.
Industry 4.0 is an even greater merger of IT Technologies and various production equipment. At the same time, the role of IT should be leading. The use of artificial intelligence technology will further improve production efficiency. Ideally, the production of the future - this plant without our usual employees, aspiring to pass. The place of the person in the industry 4.0 is a service personnel for cars and highly skilled staff of IT specialists.
I’m pretty sure that today, in many cases, you can replace a person with a machine. But this is not done only for two possible reasons:
- many jobs will continue until the creation of an automated replacement for a person is profitable.
- the second possible reason is the artificial braking of the introduction of new technologies in order to avoid mass layoffs and the negative social consequences associated with them. As long as the firm is profitable and the shareholders are satisfied, this is not worth doing.
At one of the informative events of one of the leading players in the cloud technology market, I was very surprised by the statement of one of the visitors. He asked if it was possible to convert and transfer the entire local infrastructure of his client to the cloud of this supplier? Having received a positive response, he was incredibly pleased with the opportunity to get rid of an uncomfortable customer. I admit, I was surprised by the similar reaction of an employee of a very small system integrator. Maybe if you have problems with the client, you need to find the right approach to it, and not try to get rid of it. How can you so scatter customers, because they do not grow on trees? If all clients of such small IT-companies go to the cloud, what are their employees planning to do in the future?
By themselves, cloud computing is not a completely new technology, but technology is certainly useful and wrapped in a rather attractive package.
Discussion of various options for cloud services is beyond the scope of this article, I’ll just say that I will talk about IaaS and SaaS.
The purpose of the introduction of cloud technologies is the transfer (from a marketing point of view) of tasks from your data center to a data center hosted by the provider.
From the point of view of the provider, you no longer need to worry about maintaining the physical infrastructure in working condition. All that is under the shell of the operating system (in the IaaS version) is no longer your headache. You are removed from all responsibility for everything related to the physical infrastructure (excluding the network), and these are the following positions and related specialties:
1. Physical security of the computer center, access control
2. The cooling system of the computer center (Datacenter)
3. Uninterrupted Power Supply (USV)
4. Servers
5. Storage Systems
6. Network (partially)
7. Information Security
Moving to the cloud allows significantly, and for certain positions and cavities to reduce operational (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX) on the above points.
So, if your company is not in the list of leading companies in the world, then most likely your infrastructure is significantly inferior to a serious provider in any of the above positions.
After moving to the cloud, you will no longer need to search, test and purchase new equipment. Since, in the cloud, you always have the opportunity to get the iron that meets your requirements and capabilities. Each of the above positions is not only physical equipment, but also employees hired to maintain it.
SaaS - is no less a threat to professionals associated with the management of various platforms, such as Email, CRM, ERP Systems. In the cloud, you will get the desired functionality without having to worry about the Back-End.
In this case, your system is always relevant, both in terms of regular updates, and in terms of the transition to new versions. (Evergreen IT)
It never ceases to amaze me the delight of some colleagues regarding the introduction of cloud technologies. The client transferred to the cloud is no longer your client, but the provider’s client. The transfer of client infrastructure to the cloud deprives the system integrator of the so-called return turnover (recurring revenue). Dear colleagues, you no longer have to sell a new iron, after the warranty period of the old one. Updating to the new version will also happen automatically, without your participation. I happened to participate in a project to transfer all local infrastructure to the cloud. In the end, dozens of employees of the IT department lost their jobs. Unfortunately, not everyone will be able to retrain into a new profession.
Summing up, one can only say that the future promises to be certainly interesting, and for some people it may even be tragic. I would like to hear your opinion, dear colleagues.
Disruptive technologie
There is a concept of disruptive technology (Disruptive Technologie). This term is most often described in the following words: “destructive (disruptive) technology is an innovation that can completely supplant existing technologies, a product or a service.”
So, a little excursion into our recent past. About 30 years ago in each bureau you could see a lot of typewriters. During its rather long history (more than 170 years), typewriters have gone all the way from fully mechanical to electronic-mechanical. But who among us can remember the name of the models and their manufacturers? We currently use a computer for writing texts and a printer for printing them. Which, incidentally, is no longer modern and does not serve the interests of environmental protection. A paperless office is our future. The office ... who is talking about the office today? But this is also not modern. Home Office is our future, isn't it?
But let's continue the conversation about destructive technologies. For which of us the word weaver is perceived as a real profession? For most, this is a common last name .
')
The profession, whose representatives fed their families for many millennia, was rationalized with the introduction of weaving machines.
Automotive industry
In my opinion, in the near future, destructive technology will hit the automotive industry hardest. About a hundred years ago, the car successfully replaced the wagon (carriage). Some manufacturers of carts even managed for some time to become a car manufacturer. For quite a short time, automobile production has become one of the leading sectors of the economy, still providing employment for millions of people around the world.
Let's talk a little bit more about the auto industry. The invention of the assembly line has revolutionized the production of automobiles, but also caused the first small job cuts. The use of an assembly line has reduced costs, reduced costs and increased production. Unnecessary employees were retained and engaged in other segments of the production chain.
However, the introduction of robots at different stages of production has reduced the number of jobs. From my point of view, the best times for the automotive industry are over.
The spread of electric cars will fundamentally change the entire industry (as long as the raw materials for battery production are sufficient). Hardest hit various suppliers of components.
How many parts does an average car with an internal combustion engine consist of? Depending on the configuration, of more than 10,000 parts. And the electric car? Even the “classic” mechanical brakes are no longer needed in the future, since they interfere with the idea of ​​autonomous driving. By the way, is not autonomous driving intended to replace the driver with a computer?
Imagine a chain of suppliers, the last link of which supplies the internal combustion engine as the final product. It all starts with the extraction of raw materials, their processing, the development and production of individual components, the assembly of individual components into more complex blocks and, at the end of this long journey, parts are assembled into the engine. And now the whole production chain from a bird's eye view. Imagine a huge network of small and large enterprises. Each enterprise is much more than production facilities, office buildings and their equipment. After all, this is a bakery, and a grocery store, and a post office, and doctors, and a bus company, and all the other service providers nearby. All of them are links of one chain that breaks.
But don't worry. At first, the spread of electric vehicles will create new additional jobs, and not destroy existing ones. As long as the sales figures of “classic” cars remain constant, and the “childhood diseases” of electric vehicles are not cured, the automotive industry will continue to be one of the largest employers.
Fourth Industrial Revolution 4.0
We are gradually approaching our main topic. The next example of destructive technology is the so-called fourth industrial revolution. Like the revolution of the past, it does not cause me storms of positive emotions. Revolutions have always been accompanied by significant losses, both financial and human.
Industry 4.0 is an automation that is perfected. This is an attempt to automate production processes as far as possible throughout their entire cycle, from development to logistics and marketing.
Industry 4.0 is an even greater merger of IT Technologies and various production equipment. At the same time, the role of IT should be leading. The use of artificial intelligence technology will further improve production efficiency. Ideally, the production of the future - this plant without our usual employees, aspiring to pass. The place of the person in the industry 4.0 is a service personnel for cars and highly skilled staff of IT specialists.
I’m pretty sure that today, in many cases, you can replace a person with a machine. But this is not done only for two possible reasons:
- many jobs will continue until the creation of an automated replacement for a person is profitable.
- the second possible reason is the artificial braking of the introduction of new technologies in order to avoid mass layoffs and the negative social consequences associated with them. As long as the firm is profitable and the shareholders are satisfied, this is not worth doing.
Cloud
At one of the informative events of one of the leading players in the cloud technology market, I was very surprised by the statement of one of the visitors. He asked if it was possible to convert and transfer the entire local infrastructure of his client to the cloud of this supplier? Having received a positive response, he was incredibly pleased with the opportunity to get rid of an uncomfortable customer. I admit, I was surprised by the similar reaction of an employee of a very small system integrator. Maybe if you have problems with the client, you need to find the right approach to it, and not try to get rid of it. How can you so scatter customers, because they do not grow on trees? If all clients of such small IT-companies go to the cloud, what are their employees planning to do in the future?
By themselves, cloud computing is not a completely new technology, but technology is certainly useful and wrapped in a rather attractive package.
Discussion of various options for cloud services is beyond the scope of this article, I’ll just say that I will talk about IaaS and SaaS.
IaaS
The purpose of the introduction of cloud technologies is the transfer (from a marketing point of view) of tasks from your data center to a data center hosted by the provider.
From the point of view of the provider, you no longer need to worry about maintaining the physical infrastructure in working condition. All that is under the shell of the operating system (in the IaaS version) is no longer your headache. You are removed from all responsibility for everything related to the physical infrastructure (excluding the network), and these are the following positions and related specialties:
1. Physical security of the computer center, access control
2. The cooling system of the computer center (Datacenter)
3. Uninterrupted Power Supply (USV)
4. Servers
5. Storage Systems
6. Network (partially)
7. Information Security
Moving to the cloud allows significantly, and for certain positions and cavities to reduce operational (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX) on the above points.
So, if your company is not in the list of leading companies in the world, then most likely your infrastructure is significantly inferior to a serious provider in any of the above positions.
After moving to the cloud, you will no longer need to search, test and purchase new equipment. Since, in the cloud, you always have the opportunity to get the iron that meets your requirements and capabilities. Each of the above positions is not only physical equipment, but also employees hired to maintain it.
SaaS
SaaS - is no less a threat to professionals associated with the management of various platforms, such as Email, CRM, ERP Systems. In the cloud, you will get the desired functionality without having to worry about the Back-End.
In this case, your system is always relevant, both in terms of regular updates, and in terms of the transition to new versions. (Evergreen IT)
It never ceases to amaze me the delight of some colleagues regarding the introduction of cloud technologies. The client transferred to the cloud is no longer your client, but the provider’s client. The transfer of client infrastructure to the cloud deprives the system integrator of the so-called return turnover (recurring revenue). Dear colleagues, you no longer have to sell a new iron, after the warranty period of the old one. Updating to the new version will also happen automatically, without your participation. I happened to participate in a project to transfer all local infrastructure to the cloud. In the end, dozens of employees of the IT department lost their jobs. Unfortunately, not everyone will be able to retrain into a new profession.
Summing up, one can only say that the future promises to be certainly interesting, and for some people it may even be tragic. I would like to hear your opinion, dear colleagues.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/343226/
All Articles