What we came up with for the next billion users: a project risk analysis
Here is one of the users of the “next billion”:
When you make a system for making deals between people all over the world on the blockchain, it sounds like a new hipster adventure. Mostly because of the word "blockchain", probably. Let me remind you that we are doing a service that allows people to make deals on smart contracts and has a fairly simple arbitration system without including central systems. It was in the last post .
')
Now it's time to talk about what possible risks such a system will have at the end of 2018 on a big release. If it happens.
First and foremost, we take bread from very, very many. 12-14 billion dollars - the market of freelance exchanges, 135 billion - outsourcing for retail, 40 billion - translation and journalism, 150 billion - distance learning and personal counseling, and still there is psychotherapy, telemedicine and so on and so forth.
This is all our market, because you can find the right person in the system and buy 15–20 minutes of his time, so that he shows you how they cook fish in Indonesia, or answer a couple of C ++ questions. Well, either made a tap for you, which is more likely. We soberly understand that in the next 3-5 years more than 5% even of the freelancing market will not be occupied - but still we create a threat for someone serious.
Naturally, we asked business consultants whether they would shoot us, using our system as a platform for placing an order. The resulting analysis is as follows: firstly, an order for a founder should be placed and executed - this will be the best PR company of the system, however, at the cost of the life of the general director. Secondly, there is hardly any fear of competition from freelance exchanges. And that's why:
Therefore, the most likely scenario is a business takeover attempt, like Google and Facebook sometimes buy projects to bury them while they are small. The alternative is to launch independent investment projects for owners of stock exchanges. To these threats, we, in general, will be ready at the expense of the speed advantage - if everything goes right with the ICO, we will not be caught up. If not, we will develop step by step in new markets, we will have to get involved in a serious struggle (well, or sell to someone, which is more likely, and get accelerated).
The question about the order of the general director made me evaluate the risks of forming an analogue of TOR Silk Market, an exchange of illegal transactions and services based on p2p exchange. Who does not know, now even ordinary courier companies have a huge staff of lawyers due to the fact that the courier does not know what exactly they are transporting. His task is to take a bag at point A, take the bag to point B. If the police catch him on the way and ask where his weapon or something else is in the bag, and whether he understands how much he is shining now, he is saved times these lawyers. We are so involved in history that we even decided to open a courier company and do something more serious. But then they remembered the percentage of mortality and shot through legs of the specialists of this market and decided that it was too late to relearn.
But placing illegal transactions in the p2p blockchain system is the greatest threat in terms of slowing the development of the system. We can be banned for this at the state level, or, worse, it can be stolen by the press. In a number of Asian countries, especially in China, with user-generated content is difficult - the responsibility is on the owner of the system (website). At the first stages, it is to solve such problems that the operational moderation of ads will be performed (moderators will be hired through the same system). With further development, there will be a functional user complaints and advanced blocking methods, including those based on machine learning. As a result, to combat such ads will be used mechanics, similar to the fight against spam in social networks, mail and instant messengers.
Another risk is the emergence of local competitors in the markets of Indonesia, the Philippines and India on an older technology stack. The scenario is more than likely due to the opening of the global market of the “next billion”, but local will not have economies of scale (as a result - limited implementation of technologies) and will not have the effect of the difference in price levels between customers and performers. They will need customers from the USA, Europe and Australia. Plus the practical impossibility to expand. We will be in an advantageous position, as the team has both European business experience and an understanding of Asian markets and models applicable to them. The simultaneous connection with the customer market and with the market of performers is an important criterion for the success of the system. With a local launch, the team will also include a specialist in local market and local communications, which will allow you to act as efficiently as possible, taking into account regional specifics.
In the case of the emergence of a strong local competitor, the optimal scenario is the subsequent absorption or suppression of it by us.
Two more risks - too few performers and too few customers. Here we analyzed the development of new p2p-systems (Uber, AirB & B and others) and came to the conclusion that the market capture rate would be sufficient to reach a critical mass of users. But naturally, it will not start up automatically - on every local market there will be a loud launch with offline advertising.
The last important risk is legislative measures against the system due to cryptocurrency exchange. Solution - transactions are not necessarily paid in tokens, after payment can be made by traditional methods, including bank cards, PayPal, electronic currencies. And the token itself is transparent to the participants in the transaction, and can be converted into the currency of the country of destination through standard exchange mechanisms immediately after the transaction.
Well, the last. The legal entity is registered in Hong Kong, in the economic zone with a high level of loyalty to cryptocurrencies and with the state acceptance of the blockchain technology. Thus, systemic legal risks are minimized, but risks are possible in the regional offices of the company (depending on the state policy regarding cryptocurrencies).
What is monetization? Direct - in the commission for the transaction, (2%). Indirect - in exchange (1%), selling statistics (just imagine how Hakim the carpenter looks, what city to go to, and where carpenters are most needed now - a service for migrating workforce such as tracing traffic jams and with the same mechanics at the base) plus the sale of the analysis of these statistics, for example, the answer to the question of exactly how many striking tools will be needed in the market of a specific city in two years (using the Simularweb model). All this is enough here for this calculation:
This is a summary. More details - WhitePaper .
Something like that. And now scold us for arrogance, but we believe that all this can be formed, and it is now.
When you make a system for making deals between people all over the world on the blockchain, it sounds like a new hipster adventure. Mostly because of the word "blockchain", probably. Let me remind you that we are doing a service that allows people to make deals on smart contracts and has a fairly simple arbitration system without including central systems. It was in the last post .
')
Now it's time to talk about what possible risks such a system will have at the end of 2018 on a big release. If it happens.
First and foremost, we take bread from very, very many. 12-14 billion dollars - the market of freelance exchanges, 135 billion - outsourcing for retail, 40 billion - translation and journalism, 150 billion - distance learning and personal counseling, and still there is psychotherapy, telemedicine and so on and so forth.
This is all our market, because you can find the right person in the system and buy 15–20 minutes of his time, so that he shows you how they cook fish in Indonesia, or answer a couple of C ++ questions. Well, either made a tap for you, which is more likely. We soberly understand that in the next 3-5 years more than 5% even of the freelancing market will not be occupied - but still we create a threat for someone serious.
Naturally, we asked business consultants whether they would shoot us, using our system as a platform for placing an order. The resulting analysis is as follows: firstly, an order for a founder should be placed and executed - this will be the best PR company of the system, however, at the cost of the life of the general director. Secondly, there is hardly any fear of competition from freelance exchanges. And that's why:
- They are interested in traditional systems for IT and other highly skilled labor, which will remain good enough for a long time, but for new users and for simple orders - due to the imperfection of the model designed for a qualified user who cares about his career and has the most important asset. as a portfolio of works.
- The refusal of the central model with the transition to the p2p-model will require changes in their entire technology stack and in general business processes. It is not instant and not free.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is a business takeover attempt, like Google and Facebook sometimes buy projects to bury them while they are small. The alternative is to launch independent investment projects for owners of stock exchanges. To these threats, we, in general, will be ready at the expense of the speed advantage - if everything goes right with the ICO, we will not be caught up. If not, we will develop step by step in new markets, we will have to get involved in a serious struggle (well, or sell to someone, which is more likely, and get accelerated).
The question about the order of the general director made me evaluate the risks of forming an analogue of TOR Silk Market, an exchange of illegal transactions and services based on p2p exchange. Who does not know, now even ordinary courier companies have a huge staff of lawyers due to the fact that the courier does not know what exactly they are transporting. His task is to take a bag at point A, take the bag to point B. If the police catch him on the way and ask where his weapon or something else is in the bag, and whether he understands how much he is shining now, he is saved times these lawyers. We are so involved in history that we even decided to open a courier company and do something more serious. But then they remembered the percentage of mortality and shot through legs of the specialists of this market and decided that it was too late to relearn.
But placing illegal transactions in the p2p blockchain system is the greatest threat in terms of slowing the development of the system. We can be banned for this at the state level, or, worse, it can be stolen by the press. In a number of Asian countries, especially in China, with user-generated content is difficult - the responsibility is on the owner of the system (website). At the first stages, it is to solve such problems that the operational moderation of ads will be performed (moderators will be hired through the same system). With further development, there will be a functional user complaints and advanced blocking methods, including those based on machine learning. As a result, to combat such ads will be used mechanics, similar to the fight against spam in social networks, mail and instant messengers.
Another risk is the emergence of local competitors in the markets of Indonesia, the Philippines and India on an older technology stack. The scenario is more than likely due to the opening of the global market of the “next billion”, but local will not have economies of scale (as a result - limited implementation of technologies) and will not have the effect of the difference in price levels between customers and performers. They will need customers from the USA, Europe and Australia. Plus the practical impossibility to expand. We will be in an advantageous position, as the team has both European business experience and an understanding of Asian markets and models applicable to them. The simultaneous connection with the customer market and with the market of performers is an important criterion for the success of the system. With a local launch, the team will also include a specialist in local market and local communications, which will allow you to act as efficiently as possible, taking into account regional specifics.
In the case of the emergence of a strong local competitor, the optimal scenario is the subsequent absorption or suppression of it by us.
Two more risks - too few performers and too few customers. Here we analyzed the development of new p2p-systems (Uber, AirB & B and others) and came to the conclusion that the market capture rate would be sufficient to reach a critical mass of users. But naturally, it will not start up automatically - on every local market there will be a loud launch with offline advertising.
The last important risk is legislative measures against the system due to cryptocurrency exchange. Solution - transactions are not necessarily paid in tokens, after payment can be made by traditional methods, including bank cards, PayPal, electronic currencies. And the token itself is transparent to the participants in the transaction, and can be converted into the currency of the country of destination through standard exchange mechanisms immediately after the transaction.
Well, the last. The legal entity is registered in Hong Kong, in the economic zone with a high level of loyalty to cryptocurrencies and with the state acceptance of the blockchain technology. Thus, systemic legal risks are minimized, but risks are possible in the regional offices of the company (depending on the state policy regarding cryptocurrencies).
What is monetization? Direct - in the commission for the transaction, (2%). Indirect - in exchange (1%), selling statistics (just imagine how Hakim the carpenter looks, what city to go to, and where carpenters are most needed now - a service for migrating workforce such as tracing traffic jams and with the same mechanics at the base) plus the sale of the analysis of these statistics, for example, the answer to the question of exactly how many striking tools will be needed in the market of a specific city in two years (using the Simularweb model). All this is enough here for this calculation:
| obtainable market 10% | total active mobile users (millions) | ||||
| 1 year / 2018 | 2 year / 2019 | 3 year / 2020 | |||
| Users (mln) | |||||
| i | South asia | 2 | 6 | 47 | 471.8 |
| India | 442.7 | ||||
| Bangladesh | 24.3 | ||||
| Sri lanka | 4.8 | ||||
| II | South eastern asia | eight | 31 | 312.4 | |
| Cambodia | 4.5 | ||||
| Indonesia | 123.3 | ||||
| Laos | 1.6 | ||||
| Malaysia | 21 | ||||
| Myanmar | 14.2 | ||||
| Philippines | 54 | ||||
| Singapore | 4.46 | ||||
| Vietnam | 44.85 | ||||
| Thailand | 44.2 | ||||
| III | East Asia | 7 | 66.6 | ||
| Hong Kong | 5.93 | ||||
| South Korea | 41.03 | ||||
| Taiwan | 19.7 | ||||
| total | 2 | 14 | 85 | 850.8 | |
| Monetization of skillmarket (mln $) | |||
| Safe deal (fee 2%) | 0.48 | 1.44 | 11.28 |
| Exchange unlb / fiat (fee 1%) | 0.24 | 0.72 | 5.64 |
| Stats & Analitics (monthly / yearly plan) | - | 8.4 | 51 |
| Total | 0.72 | 10.56 | 67.92 |
This is a summary. More details - WhitePaper .
Something like that. And now scold us for arrogance, but we believe that all this can be formed, and it is now.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/339738/
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