Russian Post: Is it scary to live after Strashnov?

Wait or drone? The infinite choice in the Russian Matrix.

August 2017. One of the offices of Russian Post. On the left is a corner of Bank Post, in which two employees play in their gadgets. Around them is emptiness. Straight - three windows Mail. Only one works. The queue of people in 20 to him. We must stand - nowhere to go. The terminal of electronic queue broke in a couple of weeks after installation.

Almost every visitor ahead, when his turn comes, tensely asks where his package has gone, should have come a long time ago. The cashier apologizes, says that for several months he has been working for one out of ten, and even parcels a month ago are not yet sorted. Or does not apologize, but simply screams, because they are annoyed with the same question that her superiors need to ask. Behind the window on the floor one can see the consequences of the “one for ten” work: the aisles are filled up with boxes and packages.

This is the “Mail of Russia” -2017. Strashnov left in July. But judging by the fact that the problems of the same Irkutsk UFPS (and the scene at the beginning - just from the Irkutsk department) began in the spring, Strashnov “left” even earlier. Communication, of course, is mediated, but here it is worth saying about a big fish, to which the prosecutor's office came. And the head, in its worries about the tail, stopped thinking at all, and the tail without a head did not move. Is it terrible to live after the Post Strashnov? Need to understand.
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To do this, take a global look at the whole postal ekommers, innovations Dmitry Strashnov and their results.

1. Collapse

... became the first problem that the new general director of the Post had encountered, and the reason he found himself at all here. To prevent this, Strashnov began to invest in modern automated sorting centers. And the first one was launched at Vnukovo in November of the same year. Everything else did not happen so quickly with the rest, and paralysis could not be avoided. In 2016, the newly built (in 2013) LC Vnukovo was re-equipped in an automated manner, but in December of the same year, it could not withstand the pressure (although the example is rather controversial, we need eyewitnesses). Another objective example is that the Kazan LC was launched in test order in December 2016, but the launch failed . And some examples are smaller - as regards ordinary OPS - Ryazan , for example, or Tomsk (here you can almost every OPS as an example).

On the other hand, the Japanese sorting technology was introduced at the Tolmachevo airport in Novosibirsk in the same 2016 — no one loudly complained about traffic jams there.

With the other automated sorting centers somehow did not happen. A year ago we wrote an article, including on this topic. In accordance with the plans of the Ministry of Communications of the Year Prescription, the SSC of Rostov and St. Petersburg should already be handed over, and the construction of the Yekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk SSC began. None is surrendered - and the deadlines are shifted .
And the Khabarovsk LCS fits best into the “concept of Monday” (“on Monday I will definitely start to run / build / smoke”) - take a look at the news for 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 . In the latter, the headline is gratifying - “In 2018, in Khabarovsk, they will start building a logistics center for the Post of Russia. We are waiting for the next news about bright prospects.

But! Despite the remaining problem with the speed of delivery, Russian Post has demonstrated successful promotion among the EMS delivery operators. Sixth place out of 198. Next to the top three operators (Finland, Moldova and Latvia), our huge Mail looks ridiculous. For comparison, the position of services of countries comparable in size to the territories: the USA - 35, China - 94. Due to what such a breakthrough was made?

1. This is just the results of the first quarter of 2017, at the end of the year there will certainly be a rollback. But with the arrival of Strashnov, the Mail only added every year (from the 92nd, through the 81st to the 59th). The only problem is that in the EMS English-speaking resources no rating could be found. Maybe they were looking bad. Maybe the rating is not so popular in the rest of the world. It remains to take for granted PR data on the steepness of this rating.
2. Export - by increasing the number of export items by EMS by 25%. And this is one of the main indicators of the rating.
3. Actually speed of delivery. To which you can add the speed of response to claims and the speed of transmission of data on the status of mail items to the tracking system.

It is seen that attention to the direction of EMS has been given due. In general, all the speed.
No - for contrast, here's another - the Chinese parcel shop - who are these aliens and where are we then?

2. Subsidies

“... they corrupt any enterprise” - the golden words of Dmitry Strashnov, said after years lived on the Post. Not a single penny, got on a famous platter, is not valued as wet from black sweat. The position of all subsidized, subsidized and invested companies and just any such persons (the position is internal, of course, is unofficial), as a rule, is this: “Why develop? Will they give more? ”.

And Mail would have lived the same way. If at the end of 2014 the state did not stop subsidizing it. Strashnov said that the news was unexpected for them. Because the development strategy developed in 2013 by the Ministry of Communications and Mass Communications assumed a gradual rejection of subsidies, starting from 2018 to ending 2023. Although, if Strashnov set the goal of an IPO, then the subsidies had to be forgotten as soon as possible. The crisis of the ruble and oil production has contributed.

To eliminate the deficit, it was necessary to raise prices for tariffs. Began with subscriptions and revision of agreements with publishing houses. They rebelled, hated, sued, but finally agreed.

And at the end of 2015, instead of a deficit, Mail received a net profit of 1.5 billion rubles. That is, I won back and 5.5 billion of the required subsidies and a good plus came out. How great the role of raising subscription tariffs is here is not entirely clear, but speaking about the termination of subsidies, Strashnov mentions this particular step. Although the share among the income of Mail subscription is modest (only 3%). A minute of arithmetic helps to find out that out of 140 billion rubles in revenue for 2014, the subscription brought about 4.2 billion. To get additional income of 7 billion only through a subscription, it was necessary to increase its tariffs by about 2.7 times . We read the news - everything converges - 2.5 times at the end of 2014 and + 10% at the beginning of 2015. Well, when it all fits. Bad when only on paper.



Since then, profits steadily increasing. Prices for services, however, too . But the main factor is still considered the growth of online commerce in general, and cross-border trade, in particular (read, with China). And, accordingly, the growth of processed shipments.

Total: 2014 - profit of 1.2 billion (with subsidies still alive), 2015 - 1.5 billion, 2016 - 1.7 billion rubles.



Almost certainly, the year 2017 will also end with a profit. Nevertheless, the first strategic decision of the newly-formed head of Nikolay Podguzov is a petition to the Government for the return of state support (however, so far unsuccessful ). What is behind this? Distortion of indicators by the previous management, and in fact in the Post Office are empty barns and two planes? Or did Podguzov’s inability to build a business enterprise as Strashnov did? Shows only time. Or upright confessions. Yes. Exactly time.

3. Mail.Market

... Strashnov was perceived as inappropriate. For the global market, anyway. Inside the rivalry with a number of Internet giants will be hard and losing. Outside Amazon, Alibaba and others. Only two perspectives remain. Provision of services for remote regions. And the link between abroad and Russia, i.e. tool for penetration of foreign sites on the Russian market.

In general, the state of the postal marketplace can now be assessed as satisfactory.

Functional is not bad. Bugs are found, but corrected. The range is expensive compared to competitors. In total, there were more than 100 thousand goods on the site for 2016. And issued more than 500 thousand orders.

The development is visible. For example, from the latter - this is the introduction of trade in smartphones and tablets and a contract with Samsung. There is a development. But the test period is essentially not over. And Chinese competitors do not yet see the point of penetrating Russia through Mail. Market. Maybe wait. Although it is necessary?

4. Direct mail, CRM and the rest.

Targeted mailing service. When there is a million subscribers base, sooner or later the thought will come that you can send more advertising to it. Before the Post entered the market, the volume of direct mail was estimated at 600 million rubles. By 2020, experts predicted a fivefold growth of this market due to the participation of Mail.

Again, a couple of years, Russian Post has already been testing this service. But on the multiple increase FSUE does not brag. Although it is clear - a penny in the budget falls. For example, in Tyumen .
Another small achievement under Strashnov was the development of a federal-scale CRM system instead of previously existing local projects. It took about 100 million rubles for this. Having implemented the system (as planned on October 1, 2017), it will become easier to interact with legal entities and carry out the same mailing.
To the technological innovations of the Straszhnova period, you can add online courier services and parcels, site upgrades. And, of course, the tracking service, creating irreducible things with the packages, but life is still facilitating.

5. Mail Bank and blockchain

Post Bank - one of the main achievements of Strashnov companions. 15 years talked about this. In 2016, at last, together with the VTB group, they transformed the Summer Bank into “Pochta Bank”. The development strategy provides for a jump into the top three banks by 2023. In two years, the bank has already risen from 69th to 41st place in terms of financial indicators (it ranks 15th in the national rating). For 2016, the net profit amounted to 1.2 billion rubles. Growth in assets, loan portfolio, customer liabilities, development of digital channels, mobile applications - these are all numbers.

The Post of Russia (at the expense of the subsidiary Post Finance) owns minus one share plus 50% of the bank. That is, the next extra 600 million rubles for the 2016th year, the Mail has.

From the positive moments of interaction with the PR, you can select the project of issuing parcels through bank windows. The presence in the regions increased 10 times (more than 6 thousand points).

Of the negative ones, apparently, pensions will be issued at the Post Office for a long time. And the rest of the financial services that could be transferred to Mail Bank, are still rendered by PR.

About the blockchain, you can only add that the head of Pochta Bank Dmitry Rudenko in 2016 gave a hint about the possibility of introducing this technology. A couple of days ago, Nikolay Podguzov repeated these words in relation to the Post itself. However, as the bank did not get to the active steps, the words of Podguzov can still be considered pure populism.

6. Prize and aircraft

- Do you remember, there were times when there were no airplanes on the Post? Well done Strashnov decided. With him, this fleet began. Only now they fly slowly, but they give hooks through Johannesburg.

- No, this is not under Strashnov. He could not. He only did that he wrote out the award to himself in 100 million, and then left ... - an exaggerated dialogue between amateurs to conduct exaggerated dialogues after 10 years.

No matter how positive Strashnov brought to the Mail, his main school will be remembered forever. Indirectly, he is not guilty. This is all the ministry of communications namyamkovil . But humanly it will not understand any of the current and future ordinary postmen and people. Yes - a top manager, yes - he manages a huge enterprise, and he is quite progressively managing, yes - in the same Gazprom or Rosneft there are many times more awards. But if a simple postman has a minimum salary, then the manager has no moral right to accept such an award. It turns out that the formal right to the Strashnov Prize and his deputies are, but must be returned. Moreover, in 2014, it was actually charged not with profits, but with subsidies that covered losses.

Say what you like, and your own planes have long been needed by the Post. The more interesting is the position of Tatiana Sokolova, head of the PR trade union (the second check of the Prosecutor General’s Office on the illegal purchase of airplanes, which, if penetrated, personified and led the struggle of the old system with a group of managers Strashnov), began with a complaint. If we briefly analyze the main points, then, firstly, the airplanes got triple price (a loan in Alfa Bank at 13%), secondly, they are not needed at all, and thirdly, Strashnov is a smuggler. The Post answered that the planes were taken as a subsidized loan under the state program “Development of the aviation industry” (rate 2.7%). Own airplanes save time, eliminating unnecessary interaction with anyone. But Strashnov is not a smuggler, but Dmitry Evgenievich.

The Prosecutor General’s Office, on the other hand, sent the checked materials along a known route to the Investigation Committee, where, most likely, since May, the decision to refuse to open a case has been gathering dust. Hemmed with a decision to repeal the decision to refuse. And with a new waiver resolution. And so on to infinity, if necessary.

7. Before the hung IPO

The legacy of Nikolay Podguzov got interesting. On the one hand, the whole scattering of innovations, which Mail has never seen before. Vector in the direction of modernization of all elements of the system Strashnov held tight. On the other hand, the salaries of postmen that have not reached pleasant (or at least satisfying) wage numbers, problems that have not disappeared anywhere with collapse, and this is a greedy echo from the prize, which will rumble alongside the Post for many more winters.

The only thing that Strashnov himself lacked in his work, and that he considers his main failure to be the failure to share the Post of Russia. Moreover, readiness to enter the stock exchange, in his opinion, was back in 2015. Strashnov achieved financial transparency of the company by regularly publishing detailed reports. A share in the Post of Russia was ready to buy Chinese Alibaba. At numerous conferences, Strashnov offered dozens of various profitable options arising after an IPO, the Japanese, German and other development models. Did not work. About the reasons he says the following:

1. Failure of laws on communications and corporatization
2. Lack of political sponsorship
3. I did not talk to Putin about these topics.

Political scientist and sociologist Vyacheslav Smirnov noted in the direction of Strashnov the following: in Russia, the power bloc is much more influential than the economic one. And Strashnov had no significant patrons in this circle. From that such close attention from the power structures.

Therefore, Mail will continue to evolve from a position (rather under control) of force, and not of the mind. And those who have the power neither the mind nor the developed Russian Post are needed.