Unscientific revolution: how not to go broke on fake innovations
Once we have already talked about how a lack of scientific research is ruining innovative projects. Various startups have come into our field of vision: from the acclaimed Theranos to the project that promised users to see lucid dreams. However, the characteristic feature of these businesses was not only the neglect of research: they all turned out to be profitable for their founders - but not for those who invested in the project or participated in the crowdfunding campaign.
Today, innovators from ITMO University are returning to these cases: we are discussing where the failed technology startups "turned the wrong way" and what knowledge was not enough for those who broke up with their money, blithely believing in the stories of entrepreneurial businessmen.
We have arranged the projects in this list as the distrust towards them increases: from what is being implemented to what is absolutely fantastic.
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Photo CODATA International CC-BY
The Luci project (from English lucid - clear, informed) promised to make the dreams of users conscious. The gadget, which, according to the creators of the project, is required for this, is an elastic tape (it is put on the head) with a built-in sensor and headphones. The sensor tracks the onset of the fast sleep phase (during which the person is dreaming), after which an audio signal is heard in the headphones. He, as conceived by the developers, should let the sleeper understand that he is inside the dream, without waking the person.
More than 2500 Kickstarter users wanted to invest in the creation of the gadget. However, the project unexpectedly stopped the campaign a few days before its completion (the money invested was returned to the users). The project team said it had found an investor and did not need crowdfunding. However, there is an assumption that the real reason for the early termination of the campaign was that the project team was convicted of adjusting the photos of the prototype (users noticed that the TDA7293 amplifier in the photo is suspiciously similar to the stock photo - despite the fact that the company refused to provide other images of the prototype). As a result, the gadget did not go on sale.
Even leaving aside the dubious actions of the Luci leadership, it seems that the device came to us straight from the Nolan movie and the interest of those who invested can only be explained by a desperate desire to feel like heroes from the "Start". As Elena Gavrilova, Director of the ITMO University Business Incubator, rightly notes, “At the moment, we still lack information for the correct interpretation of neural signals, i.e. science has already learned how to capture brain signals, but no one has yet interpreted them correctly. Similarly, the majority of such devices are based on the perception of individual neurophysiological parameters (eye movement speed, vegetative functions, etc.) and their interpretation from the point of view of psychology, which is not always correct. ”
Nevertheless, the idea of ​​the project is not devoid of common sense. Yury Konoplev from TuSion (a resident accelerator project at Future Technologies ITMO University, which is developing a software algorithm for working with a neural interface - we talked about it in more detail here ) notes that in general such initiatives are quite realizable. He himself used a mask to induce lucid dreaming REMEE . This gadget works according to a similar principle - it tracks the onset of the deep sleep phase (by eye movement) and gives a signal - in this case, a light one.
According to the scientist, the problem of the project was not that Luci offered deliberately non-working technology - perhaps it was the managerial error or the inability to realize the idea by the force of this particular team. According to Yuri, such a gadget is unlikely to be able to give a guaranteed result and “show” lucid dreams, but it would be quite capable of helping in the development of this skill.
However, as Elena Gavrilova rightly notes, even if the device went on sale, it would be necessary to use it with caution:
The history of Theranos and its founder, Elizabeth Holmes, is known to everyone: the biotechnology company promised to provide customers with up to 240 different tests (including oncology) at a record low price based on a small amount of blood. In the wake of the success of the project received $ 400 million investment and was estimated at $ 9 billion
Subsequently, it turned out that the company's patents did not contain information about “revolutionary developments”, and some of the analyzes were carried out not on the company's innovative equipment, but at the expense of technologies from other manufacturers. The real value of the company has also declined - and seriously: up to $ 800 million, of which $ 724 million are attracted investments. Moreover, now Forbes calls this figure too high - according to journalists, by the end of 2017, the company may become bankrupt, if only because it spends up to $ 10 million a month on lawyers.
Nevertheless, as noted in Forbes, the market itself, which the company aimed at, is real and has a huge capacity - billions of dollars. And developments in this area are actively carried out by other firms:
Elena Gavrilova notes: in order not to succumb to the charm of stories about the billion-dollar project from Palo Alto, investors would not be hindered by knowledge of the methods, technologies and equipment for medical diagnostics, as well as knowledge in the field of intellectual property and its protection (for patent search and acquaintance with the content of patents Theranos).
As we found out, the Luci project was based on a completely workable idea, which was prevented from being realized by reasons not directly related to technology - therefore, those who invested in the project (and returned their money) have nothing to reproach. Theranos is a story with much louder statements, but everyone spoke about this brand and its achievements, including a large number of authoritative publications: it was really hard not to believe in the reality of Elizabeth Holmes’s statements on the wave of Theranos success.
We now turn to other projects: they did not enjoy such influence as Theranos, so the question of whether or not to invest in them was dictated to a lesser extent by public opinion. We will understand what could keep the user from rash attachments.
Vessyl's “smart mug”, according to its creators, should recognize its content: measure the amount of sugar and fat, protein and caffeine, as well as the caloric content of drinks. The results of the analysis - as well as tips on how to improve the "eating behavior", the user could see in his smartphone for $ 199 per device and its annex.
The project received $ 3.5 million investment and another million dollars on pre-orders. However, he did not go to the mass sale - on the project site there is still an inscription stating that it is in development. However, now the device has got the younger brother Prime Vessyl. It is sold on Amazon - although it has a very low rating (2.3 stars out of 5). Customers who bought Prime Vessyl note that the device is fragile, flawed from the point of view of design and usability and (most importantly) does not know how to track the caloric content and composition of drinks and is only suitable for tracking the amount of water consumed.
Elena Gavrilova confirms: there is a huge need on the market for the development of a nanosensor capable of estimating a large number of parameters in a liquid (sugar and other elements). It would open up new possibilities in the field of non-invasive technologies for diagnosing diseases (the same diabetes), health tracking and nutrition technologies (the creators of fitness trackers have been struggling for more than a year to develop sensors to determine the level of body hydration and calorie counting).
Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, microelectronics - the areas of knowledge that, in the opinion of our experts, could save the user from rash investment in this seemingly absolutely attractive gadget.
If Vessyl promised to monitor the consumption of liquids, the creators of the BioRing ring did not skimp on even more generous statements: it had to track literally everything, ranging from the duration and quality of sleep to the volume of calories consumed and heart rate. They wrote about the project (all the same) Forbes , Digital Trends compared the gadget with the Green Lantern power ring, the company itself (unlike Luci) did not skimp on the photo of the device and the workflow on the crowdfunding campaign page on Indiegogo.
As a result, the project did not just fail: it turned out that no development was behind it at all - however, this did not prevent its founders from becoming rich. The company very quickly raised an investment of $ 450,000 through active advertising and received marketing support. However, product sales have not begun. Currently, on the same platform, Indiegogo presents a support page for hapless magic ring buyers who have lost their money. According to foreign sources , about $ 200,000 was returned to creditors. The profit of Indiegogo on this startup is estimated at $ 23,000.
Elena Gavrilova, commenting on this project, notes that the statements of its founders did not immediately arouse any confidence in her:
In order to recognize the "fake", in this case would need knowledge in the field of medical diagnostic systems, microelectronics and nanotechnology. By the way, they really helped users understand that there was something wrong with this crowdfunding campaign: for engineer Guy Lev Raz, who came across a campaign and subsequently made active attempts to bring BioRing to clean water, it was obvious that the ring scheme , presented on the project page, from the point of view of microelectronics, simply does not make sense.
Kirill Khalyuta, CEO of the CyberX project, adds: theoretically non-invasive diagnostics of glucose, biochemistry is possible, but definitely not in the format of a gadget-ring (taking into account the prices set on it) - the device, at least, does not have enough power. It is also possible to make a miniature gadget in theory (for example, on these sensors), but the prototype will cost $ 20-30 million.
Most of the projects described by us have been actively covered in the press as “new technologies” and “unique gadgets” that are ready to radically change our world. As it turns out, not all of these statements could be trusted - in order to figure out what is behind the next revolutionary development, technical education and scientific skepticism are not out of place.
Today, innovators from ITMO University are returning to these cases: we are discussing where the failed technology startups "turned the wrong way" and what knowledge was not enough for those who broke up with their money, blithely believing in the stories of entrepreneurial businessmen.
We have arranged the projects in this list as the distrust towards them increases: from what is being implemented to what is absolutely fantastic.
')
Photo CODATA International CC-BYNot very fake: Luci
The Luci project (from English lucid - clear, informed) promised to make the dreams of users conscious. The gadget, which, according to the creators of the project, is required for this, is an elastic tape (it is put on the head) with a built-in sensor and headphones. The sensor tracks the onset of the fast sleep phase (during which the person is dreaming), after which an audio signal is heard in the headphones. He, as conceived by the developers, should let the sleeper understand that he is inside the dream, without waking the person.
More than 2500 Kickstarter users wanted to invest in the creation of the gadget. However, the project unexpectedly stopped the campaign a few days before its completion (the money invested was returned to the users). The project team said it had found an investor and did not need crowdfunding. However, there is an assumption that the real reason for the early termination of the campaign was that the project team was convicted of adjusting the photos of the prototype (users noticed that the TDA7293 amplifier in the photo is suspiciously similar to the stock photo - despite the fact that the company refused to provide other images of the prototype). As a result, the gadget did not go on sale.
Even leaving aside the dubious actions of the Luci leadership, it seems that the device came to us straight from the Nolan movie and the interest of those who invested can only be explained by a desperate desire to feel like heroes from the "Start". As Elena Gavrilova, Director of the ITMO University Business Incubator, rightly notes, “At the moment, we still lack information for the correct interpretation of neural signals, i.e. science has already learned how to capture brain signals, but no one has yet interpreted them correctly. Similarly, the majority of such devices are based on the perception of individual neurophysiological parameters (eye movement speed, vegetative functions, etc.) and their interpretation from the point of view of psychology, which is not always correct. ”
Nevertheless, the idea of ​​the project is not devoid of common sense. Yury Konoplev from TuSion (a resident accelerator project at Future Technologies ITMO University, which is developing a software algorithm for working with a neural interface - we talked about it in more detail here ) notes that in general such initiatives are quite realizable. He himself used a mask to induce lucid dreaming REMEE . This gadget works according to a similar principle - it tracks the onset of the deep sleep phase (by eye movement) and gives a signal - in this case, a light one.
It is not that I improve my lucid dreaming skills with the [REMEE] mask, but to gain new experience. It was difficult for me to fall asleep with a mask - this was the main reason that she “did not go.”
Replacing visual stimulation [like REMEE] with audial stimulation is a good idea and not so complicated, it would seem. I would believe [in Luci], taking into account my experience, knowledge of the sections of somnology and understanding how difficult all that relates to sleep, and how conventional these divisions of sleep stages are.
According to the scientist, the problem of the project was not that Luci offered deliberately non-working technology - perhaps it was the managerial error or the inability to realize the idea by the force of this particular team. According to Yuri, such a gadget is unlikely to be able to give a guaranteed result and “show” lucid dreams, but it would be quite capable of helping in the development of this skill.
However, as Elena Gavrilova rightly notes, even if the device went on sale, it would be necessary to use it with caution:
Even experts in the field of psychology do not undertake to assess the possible effects of [similar gadgets] on the duration and quality of sleep, which may well lead to a disruption of neurotransmitter balance.
Success, which many wanted to believe: Theranos
The history of Theranos and its founder, Elizabeth Holmes, is known to everyone: the biotechnology company promised to provide customers with up to 240 different tests (including oncology) at a record low price based on a small amount of blood. In the wake of the success of the project received $ 400 million investment and was estimated at $ 9 billion
Subsequently, it turned out that the company's patents did not contain information about “revolutionary developments”, and some of the analyzes were carried out not on the company's innovative equipment, but at the expense of technologies from other manufacturers. The real value of the company has also declined - and seriously: up to $ 800 million, of which $ 724 million are attracted investments. Moreover, now Forbes calls this figure too high - according to journalists, by the end of 2017, the company may become bankrupt, if only because it spends up to $ 10 million a month on lawyers.
Nevertheless, as noted in Forbes, the market itself, which the company aimed at, is real and has a huge capacity - billions of dollars. And developments in this area are actively carried out by other firms:
Today, many startups are trying to create a non-invasive glucometer technology that could make it easier for patients with diabetes to monitor their health (one of the main causes of death in the world). One of the main problems for such developments is their low efficiency compared to the “classical” blood test, and for such a “classical” analysis a certain amount of this blood is required, and so for each disease.
Therefore, in this development I would be embarrassed by 2 facts: a statement about the possibility of conducting 240 different analyzes “from just one drop of blood” and the lack of reliability (time and number of patients) of this technology confirmed.
- Elena Gavrilova
Elena Gavrilova notes: in order not to succumb to the charm of stories about the billion-dollar project from Palo Alto, investors would not be hindered by knowledge of the methods, technologies and equipment for medical diagnostics, as well as knowledge in the field of intellectual property and its protection (for patent search and acquaintance with the content of patents Theranos).
As we found out, the Luci project was based on a completely workable idea, which was prevented from being realized by reasons not directly related to technology - therefore, those who invested in the project (and returned their money) have nothing to reproach. Theranos is a story with much louder statements, but everyone spoke about this brand and its achievements, including a large number of authoritative publications: it was really hard not to believe in the reality of Elizabeth Holmes’s statements on the wave of Theranos success.
We now turn to other projects: they did not enjoy such influence as Theranos, so the question of whether or not to invest in them was dictated to a lesser extent by public opinion. We will understand what could keep the user from rash attachments.
Did not live up to expectations: "smart mug"
Vessyl's “smart mug”, according to its creators, should recognize its content: measure the amount of sugar and fat, protein and caffeine, as well as the caloric content of drinks. The results of the analysis - as well as tips on how to improve the "eating behavior", the user could see in his smartphone for $ 199 per device and its annex.
The project received $ 3.5 million investment and another million dollars on pre-orders. However, he did not go to the mass sale - on the project site there is still an inscription stating that it is in development. However, now the device has got the younger brother Prime Vessyl. It is sold on Amazon - although it has a very low rating (2.3 stars out of 5). Customers who bought Prime Vessyl note that the device is fragile, flawed from the point of view of design and usability and (most importantly) does not know how to track the caloric content and composition of drinks and is only suitable for tracking the amount of water consumed.
Elena Gavrilova confirms: there is a huge need on the market for the development of a nanosensor capable of estimating a large number of parameters in a liquid (sugar and other elements). It would open up new possibilities in the field of non-invasive technologies for diagnosing diseases (the same diabetes), health tracking and nutrition technologies (the creators of fitness trackers have been struggling for more than a year to develop sensors to determine the level of body hydration and calorie counting).
The problem is that such technologies do not exist yet. In addition, the question of the reliability of such assessments is also still open. Thirdly, the low cost of a product with similar technology is questionable (the price of [one only] reliable fitness tracker is $ 70-100).
- Elena Gavrilova
Nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, microelectronics - the areas of knowledge that, in the opinion of our experts, could save the user from rash investment in this seemingly absolutely attractive gadget.
Complete failure: BioRing super ring
If Vessyl promised to monitor the consumption of liquids, the creators of the BioRing ring did not skimp on even more generous statements: it had to track literally everything, ranging from the duration and quality of sleep to the volume of calories consumed and heart rate. They wrote about the project (all the same) Forbes , Digital Trends compared the gadget with the Green Lantern power ring, the company itself (unlike Luci) did not skimp on the photo of the device and the workflow on the crowdfunding campaign page on Indiegogo.
As a result, the project did not just fail: it turned out that no development was behind it at all - however, this did not prevent its founders from becoming rich. The company very quickly raised an investment of $ 450,000 through active advertising and received marketing support. However, product sales have not begun. Currently, on the same platform, Indiegogo presents a support page for hapless magic ring buyers who have lost their money. According to foreign sources , about $ 200,000 was returned to creditors. The profit of Indiegogo on this startup is estimated at $ 23,000.
Elena Gavrilova, commenting on this project, notes that the statements of its founders did not immediately arouse any confidence in her:
There are even more questions in this project - due to the lack of a prototype, in particular. That is why in the Business Incubator of ITMO University we work only with projects that have a ready-made technology or the first version of the product. By analogy with previous products, there are a lot of questions related to the technology for estimating calories and glucose (non-invasive).
- Elena Gavrilova
In order to recognize the "fake", in this case would need knowledge in the field of medical diagnostic systems, microelectronics and nanotechnology. By the way, they really helped users understand that there was something wrong with this crowdfunding campaign: for engineer Guy Lev Raz, who came across a campaign and subsequently made active attempts to bring BioRing to clean water, it was obvious that the ring scheme , presented on the project page, from the point of view of microelectronics, simply does not make sense.
Kirill Khalyuta, CEO of the CyberX project, adds: theoretically non-invasive diagnostics of glucose, biochemistry is possible, but definitely not in the format of a gadget-ring (taking into account the prices set on it) - the device, at least, does not have enough power. It is also possible to make a miniature gadget in theory (for example, on these sensors), but the prototype will cost $ 20-30 million.
Most of the projects described by us have been actively covered in the press as “new technologies” and “unique gadgets” that are ready to radically change our world. As it turns out, not all of these statements could be trusted - in order to figure out what is behind the next revolutionary development, technical education and scientific skepticism are not out of place.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/336142/
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