Why is there no Russian Amazon, or where is @ buried? Myths to close

Many times (with colleagues and without) I studied the market of e-commerce & online economy in general in Russia: and every time I was amazed at how full it was with artifacts (in the meaning - close to this ).

And last week, several important news came out at once:
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1. FAS gave the go-ahead for the unification of Technosila and Eldorado
2. At the same time, Technosila itself denied before this rumors about its (possible) bankruptcy
3. And Sberbank factoring has issued a sum of money from Yulmart

How are these events related?

In fact, not only these, but a few more:

1. Ozon has not been making profits for now ... almost 20 years!
2. Enter - started cheerfully, cheerfully and young, and finished - like most others: that is, after the actual ruin - he found a new investor .
3. Vladislav Domaratsky once created a competitor (in 2014-2016) of the largest online retailer - Exist: the separation was long , with the participation of Alpha groups and, in fact, brought large players to the market, but nothing has been done to this market itself. gave
4. Yulmart - also number 1 for different (for example, by turnover) store in Russia - has been muddy in conflicts and problems for many years now, which, by the way, are often resolved through Alpha groups .
5. On September 12, 1717, a court was appointed for the bankrupt of the Wild Berries (aka Wildburriz / Wildberries): one of the most closed and mysterious projects of Runet.

To appreciate the power of the problem, here are the TOP-100 e-commerce for 2015 and 2016 .:

1. 2016
2. www.ruward.ru/ecommerce-index-2015

I will choose even the TOP-10 (2016):

1. Yulmart
2. Wild berries
3. Citylink
4. M Video
5. Exist
6. El Dorado
7. Svyaznoy
8. KupiVip
9. Ozon
10. Komus

I crossed out those about whom information was received regarding possible bankruptcy, large debts, bad reputation, etc. And that is 80% of the TOP-10.

But, before drawing conclusions - a bit of history.

History of a single association

In 2005, the company Sotmarket was born in the capital of Russia, specializing in the sale of various kinds of accessories for telephones and other equipment, and already in 2006 in another capital - this time - a shop with a modest name: e96 appeared in the Urals. But even before them, namely in 2004 in the region No. 77, the first Russian online store grew, whose shares were traded on the stock exchange - Yutinet.

The difference, as we see, is not big: a year or two.

Soon, Sotmarket became the fastest growing in online sales, e96 - the largest among regional ones, and Yutinet was completely IPO.

2014 was the key one for the first, and for the second, and for the third: they were united :

E96 co-founders Boris Lepinsky and Dmitry Pivovarov received about 20% of the shares, another 20% from the creator of Sotmarket Vsevolod Fear, 7% from the Utinet founder Mikhail Ukolov

The most interesting thing is that Ulfi Kasimov has become the ultimate beneficiary (whether the end is true, is also a question), as lawyers like to say. I will not allocate a lot of space, just give a link and a brief summary on it:

Ulvi Kasimov traded in oil products, worked in the structures of Gazprom and the Kurchatov Institute, met with members of the Ozero cooperative. How did he become an online investor?

I think the quote - speaking? ..

But the consolidations did not end there. Even the opposite: a bunch of “sotmarket + yutinet + e96” (in fact, in any order) gradually, even very quickly for such giants, disappeared and only e96 remained afloat: neither joint purchases, nor a change in marketing strategy - nothing brought to profitability. And in the end - Technosila - a monster from the distant 1993rd - acquired the final e96 .

By the way, to make it clear why I remembered Amazon (not only because it is number one in “pure” e-commerce, even despite the presence of Ali, Tao, and others from Celestial):

Our goal is not to overtake Ozon, our goal is to overtake Amazon, ”once said Yuteneta’s CEO, Metrius Dosko

In fact, everything turned out to be simpler: the game was about a fool , as one Hubrozhitel correctly put it. But in this she did not end.

Namely, the following happened: the association under the sonorous name "Safmar", which belongs to M. Gutseriev (about him - a little lower), was bought by the largest M.Video home appliances sales network . At the same time, even earlier (but also this year), the same businessman made purchases from Eldorado and Technosila. Here's a sweat non-consumer basket.

And FAS (see above) do not mind.

To understand the whole point of the situation - you need to go to the Wiki :

Mikail (Mikhail) Safarbekovich Gutseriev ... The main shareholder of the Industrial Financial Group SAFMAR (former BIN group), which includes JSC NK RussNeft, OJSC Russian Coal, PJSC Mospromstroy, PJSC Binbank, Inteko, 101; the owner of the British company GCM Global Energy Inc. with an annual turnover of $ 1 billion (the latter produces oil in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan). Controls major real estate assets (including National, Petrovsky Passage and Smolensky Passage in Moscow). Member of the Board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

Here is a list.

At the same time, the B & N Bank is a very, very interesting association (with VTB and Otkritie, but next time about them, they can contend with it): in particular, in 2016, B & N Bank merged (in essence, “bought”) with MDM-Bank . At the same time, the MDM itself was united in 2009 with the URSA-tank . In addition, in 2014, Binbank bought shares in Mosprivatbank (for obvious reasons, which should not be voiced in Habré). In the same year, this fin. the group actually acquired DNB Bank. I will not ship for years, I will say who else have attached:

1. Growth bank
2. Cedar bank
3. Akkobank
4. SKA Bank
5. Tveruniversalbank
6. Uralprivatbank
7. Europlan Group - among other things, the leader of the car leasing market

These are the tendencies: it is clear that the “small” credit organizations, dented about the policy of the Central Bank to “recall and frighten” , as well as close entire sectors of the economy with new laws (or even letters ), go “under the wing” close to ... ( necessary - choose for yourself), as the lawyers say, public authority. But after all, exactly the same tendencies can be traced outside the banking sector: another vivid example is Euroset , which after, again - bright and famous events, was first merged, and then - they wanted to separate more than once. But not just like that, but to merge with the salons of Megaphone and Beeline.

But, back to Binbank: so, according to the result - not only several different banks, but also the largest network for the sale of equipment under its wing. More precisely - the only one?

Yes, there is the Refrigerator, the DNS and a number of others: but will they be able to withstand this spike on aluminum legs? After all, the same DNS, entering a new city, implemented a simple scheme: take the main profit not from the buyer, but from the supplier. Due to bonuses and discounts. Due to large purchases in one word.

And what is the result?

But in the end (I can confirm in a number of regions - the Urals, Siberia, the Far East, if you don’t have it - write) - DEXP and DNS actually pushed out the normal equipment from the counters. And, for example, in Irkutsk, all small companies (relatively, of course), whether Formosa or mini-markets of laptops, actually left the market and the variety was lost, and the quality deteriorated. Yes, and sellers have become far from the format "your opinion is important to us." By the way, in M.Video - the same song last year. Or not?

But this is subjective: objectively, there are several myths that have been heard more than once at various conferences, seminars and webinars, other meetings and, of course, in articles from Ozon and Co. (the first is simply the brightest in this sense) . Here they are - and their refutation based on the data obtained and verified already:

1. Consolidation of business is always a blessing for the consumer: for the price, yes, winning is possible. Firstly, the players themselves (aka sellers) put discounts on large household appliances to the limit and the margin eventually is below 1-2% (depending on the category, etc.). Here are just a fraction of the same margin can take off up to 120% or more percent (covers - a separate conversation). Secondly, large wholesale is large wholesale. But according to the result - in the medium and especially - in the long run, all this leads to the fact that the companies themselves, be it M.Video, Eldorado, Enter, or someone else (in my opinion, this can be seen especially well). an example of Sotmarket), they come to the conclusion that they cannot reach a recoupment on any turnover : neither on a million nor a billion, because Costs are rising at a proportional rate of return. Look at Ozon and Twitter D.
   
   Perekalski about income. And that is why I do not believe in 99% of ICO and in the theory of investing in startups. In Russia, first of all: yes, such people as Y. Milner, A. Usmanov and a number of others manage to collect cream, but only because not everyone has the opportunity to make, say, Mail.ru plan reducing the tax burden and ... it took place . Specs? This evil. And this is - IMHO. In addition, the quality of the goods may not necessarily grow: the example of the DNS and Eldorado for me in this regard is indicative. Another market that is simply terrible due to the lack of normal competition is cellular communication (if you are interested, read my file ).
   
   
2. Yes, large business is easier to control : but on the one hand, and on the other, on the other, with monopolization of competition, the small one goes into gray and even black zones. For those who want to trace the situation from and to - I recommend two spheres: the first is cryptocurrency and the second is self-employed citizens who were given a delay of 2 years , but thereby warned that what they actually had two years to do.
   
   
3. If you have ever seen the “Big Turn” award, heard the speeches of Wikimart, Ozon, and others like them, then you probably, like me, did not just attend the thought: “what nonsense, gentlemen, do you carry?” (Sometimes, by the way and ladies). The point is not how much the turnover will increase, but when it will cover the costs. In general, there is a good example of a large and long-term investment - Avito: but there everything was calculated even before entering the market. Others are rolling, bored, but still working: take the first millions of dollars, increase the product range, increase the turnover, make the next round, where more investors will enter, increase the total capital, as well as the share of the original investors and do so until until losses are already felt for some group of investors, and the first is free to sell (a super example for me personally is Qiwi with a nice schedule for buying cash, reflected in the price). And that's all: there is money, and the loss is not such as to close. Someone fails in one stage - they do in two: say, Enter. At the same time, all these “giants” very much dislike “ competitors ” in the form of small business (who are interested - I am addressing O. Hartman’s interview with his speech about conversion).
   
   
4. Speaking of price : it not only grows on trifles, but also grows when retailers want it. Say, on a video card today, when mining just hits all records. This can be explained by the fact that demand-creates-supply, but in fact, trading networks just one day put the price higher, then-even higher, and then ... increased. And while competing with them in purchases in China is quite difficult: the volume is too large. And now video cards are, like, say, gold or diamonds, not only a limited resource in itself, but also a resource limited artificially. Good or bad - ask gamers.
   
   
5. I also didn’t find any confirmation that the service of large companies is growing: it’s not even in Sberbank, where it’s somehow (from region to region) began to turn out, not in the Russian Post, where the management has been changed for the fifth time, not in Russian Railways, where the price of travel in a compartment for 12 hours is equal to living in a good hotel on Lake Baikal, not at VTB, which never learned to automate at the proper level of foreign economic activity, no. Rather, the fact is that online has become more or less settled, but now offline for all test purchases (there were over 100 of them) everyone who is offline is 100% passed the test. However, about it - next time.
   
   
6. And finally, the main myth : money (their amount) is everything. This myth is imposed in the Russian Federation in many areas. And for several reasons, it is supported by ordinary citizens and even Ipshniki. But this is not the case. This is especially clearly seen on niche online stores, which have to survive in a tough environment, where there are hypermarkets, Chinese, and, to say the least, strange government regulation.

I’ll finish with one more small, but very revealing story: in 2015 (!) In Russia they decided to make their Aliexpress. And everything would be fine, but in two years (2 years!) It was done ... ATTENTION! 24 orders! . Well, maybe there were tests and the section worked for almost a year. But what changes?

And this is despite the fact that small businesses have something to sell to China (and he successfully does this, for example, in our region): from birch bark and herbs to some unique handicrafts and even musical compositions. Another question is that all this is handicraft. There is no site, because fill it "from above" and by its rules.

And that is why, according to statistics from the Russian Post Office, almost 80% are packages from China, and Ali can make a free package from any amount at any time — paid . Already done. How it delivers is a separate question .

It is possible and even certain (since, during the preparation of wool, the search for Habr) there have already been such articles. But, firstly, until now, no one sees the whole picture in a global context. Secondly, few people understand that ultimately, this approach leads to the fact that money from the Russian Federation is quietly transferred to Europe, the United States, China, because Investors from the Vast - one, two and obchelsya. Thirdly, and this is a thesis without evidence, although, if necessary, I can bring them, if there is less than 33-40% in a small business country - there are obvious problems in the country. By the way, according to various sources (if there are official ones, I will be glad): in China, at various times, this figure reached 60%. IN USA - . In the Russian Federation - you can see here .

And for IT, this is problem # 1, since freelance, indie development, small teams, etc. - All this is primarily about IT. After all, we don’t have garage startups precisely because the political authorities consider it necessary to fight, and not to develop the garage economy . Or not? Meanwhile, Apple - directly evidence of the opposite.