Threat Horizon 2017-2019 by the International Security Forum (executive executive)
Hello colleagues,
At the end of last week, the International Security Forum published a regular annual report on upcoming trends in IT threats to business. Threat Horizon 2019. The report contains detailed descriptions of the nine major threats, as well as information on their impact on business and recommended actions.
I also added a translation of the results of last year’s report (2018). The information provided should help IT and risk managers, as well as business executives, become familiar with the increasing risks and evaluate the possible consequences.
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Under the link you can download an excerpt from the report in English. Last year , before last year , and earlier excerpts are in the public domain. Those who want to familiarize themselves with the translation of the findings and recommendations from the reports of the last three years - please under the cat.
In the comments I propose to describe the relevance of the findings and recommendations for your organization.
It is impossible to read a newspaper or magazine that is not overflowing with stories about how much new technologies will have a strong impact on our life and work. It is also hard to miss stories about cyber attacks and hacking, while every day the “attackers” take possession of more opportunities and arrogance.
Business executives are faced with a harsh dilemma: is it worth rushing to introduce new technologies and risk large-scale consequences if something goes wrong; or wait and potentially lose positions to competitors? A well-informed organization about emerging technologies and related threats will have an advantageous position for making winning decisions.
Threat Horizon reports present nine major threats expected in the next two to three years as a result of changes in IT. Threats are outlined in three key themes that reflect the main consequences if they occur.
2017
1.1 Ultra-high-speed compounds suppress defense.
1.2 Criminal syndicates make a quantum leap.
1.3 Groups, "rejecting" technologists, cause chaos.
2.1 Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous.
2.2 System vulnerabilities are used as a weapon.
2.3. Death of legacy systems.
2.4. Death from the failure of digital services.
3.1. Global consolidation threatens competition and security.
3.2. The sharp increase in the effects of hacking databases.
Topic 1. The introduction of modern technology greatly expands the scope of threats.
1.1 IoT "merges" confidential information
Companies will enthusiastically introduce the Internet of Things, without realizing how often such devices are designed unsafely, providing ample opportunities for hackers.
Implement security processes for connecting the IoT to the network. Before implementation, evaluate what information will be available for collection and distribution, and for whom.
1.2 Opaque algorithms compromise integrity
Companies will increasingly use algorithms to improve efficiency. However, the lack of transparency in the interaction structure of such algorithms will pose a serious information security risk.
Identify points of contact with systems driven by algorithms, and understand when human intervention is needed. Identify alternative ways to handle risks from algorithmic incidents.
1.3 Recalcitrant governments use terrorists for cyber attacks
Such partnerships will evolve and include ongoing and destructive incidents leading to business interruptions and loss of confidence in existing security controls.
Adapt risk management processes to new actors. Explore the possibility of assisting in the exploration of threats with public and private entities.
2.1 Management expectations not achieved will lead to a serious incident.
The expectations of managers will grow beyond the limits of information security functionality. Such a discrepancy will be revealed as a result of a serious incident, provoking serious consequences for the business.
Involve management regularly, giving them a credible look at risks. Adjust managers' expectations for improved security features based on current and future opportunities.
2.2 Researchers silenced by vulnerabilities
While researchers reveal vulnerabilities, manufacturers threaten lawsuits. As a result, organizations will continue to use vulnerable software that carries risks.
Consider funding such research. Use intermediary services to share information.
2.3 Support in the form of cyber insurance disappears
Large hacks of databases will scare away many insurance companies from the cyber insurance market, which will violate the main way companies are shifting risks.
Reassess risk management strategies before a crisis. Explore cyber insurance policies for possible expensive exemptions.
3.1 Aggressive organizations provoke the government
Aggressive commercial strategies (owned by organizations that “undermine” their sector) will force politicians and regulators to pay attention to local consequences in the areas of commerce and security.
Avoid political opposition by understanding the local context in which your products and services are provided. Develop a strategy of political influence and involvement, focusing on a control system based on principles.
3.2 Legislation “Fragments” Cloud Storage Technologies
Changes in legislation will lead to new restrictions on the processing of personal data. This will delay the introduction of cloud services until the necessary changes are made.
Form an understanding of how laws will evolve in light of the growing demand for increased security of personal data. Be proactive and prepare for changes in regions where legislative moods are changing.
3.3 Criminal opportunities are increasing in the area of ​​international protection.
The technical capabilities of cyber criminals will exceed the capabilities of companies. The capabilities of current defenses are likely to decline, exposing organizations to greater impact.
Establish the necessary controls and systems to create threat intelligence capabilities. Proactively influence governments to collaborate and build effective legal schemes.
Topic 1 - Breakdowns : over-reliance on a “fragile” bond.
Topic 2 - Distortion : as the loss of confidence in the integrity of information.
Topic 3 - Depreciation : when controls are “blurred” under the influence of legislation and technology.
The world in 2019 will depend entirely on technology and communications, and the organization must use every tool at its disposal to maintain leadership. Orientation in this world will require a strong culture of cooperation, and the right people able to get together at the right time to play their part in ensuring success.
Is a loud corporate failure coming? Will it be your company?
1.1 Deliberate Internet outages put trade on your knees
In conditions of fragmented international relations, the core of the Internet infrastructure will be the goal of states and terrorist groups in an effort to inflict widespread economic damage on their opponents.
You can no longer rely on existing business continuity plans. Interaction with internal and external stakeholders is required in order to reach agreement on alternative methods of communication (telex, satellite and high-frequency communications).
1.2 Malware for extortion affects Internet of Things
Ransomware viruses are already one of the most common ways to use the value of digital information companies for criminal purposes. It is expected the evolution of such software, aimed at smart devices, with the probability of risk to people's lives.
Interact with industry organizations to lobby and influence laws that provide minimum Internet of Things security standards.
1.3 Forcing privileged insiders to issue a “gold party”
Light targets, employees with access to key information will be subject to old-fashioned criminal methods of coercion.
Identify critical information assets and employees who own / have access to.
2.1 Automated disinformation gains instant credibility
The practice of deliberately spreading misinformation, fueled by advances in artificial intelligence, will target commercial organizations.
Introduce scenarios covering the spread of misinformation into general incident response plans.
2.2. Falsified information compromises performance.
Attacks that threaten the integrity of an organization’s internal information will increase in number, scale and complexity.
Establish access monitoring and key information changes using access and content management systems (FIAM, CMS).
2.3 The use of blockchains for criminal purposes undermines trust
Using blockchains for fraud and money laundering will destroy the trust they rely on. This may entail the refusal to use a specific blockchain, along with losses in the efficiency of processes.
Appoint a manager and a committee to consult and make decisions regarding the implementation and use of the blockchain throughout the organization.
3.1 Laws in the field of supervision and covert surveillance reveal corporate secrets
Companies will not be able to determine the security of data storage collected by communications providers. Attackers target this vulnerability.
Avoid political opposition by understanding the local context in which your products and services are provided. Develop a strategy of political influence and involvement, focusing on a control system based on principles.
3.2 Privacy rules hinder monitoring of internal threats.
Restrictions on individual profiling will put the puzzle in front of the organization: either to lose the ability to track the internal threat, or to challenge the regulatory acts. Both options will have negative consequences.
Get legal advice on profiling users for each jurisdiction in which the company operates.
3.3 The rapid roll on the deployment of AI leads to unexpected results.
The use of artificial intelligence will produce results that go beyond the understanding of business leaders, developers and system managers, creating new vulnerabilities.
Recruit, develop, and retain talents with management skills in AI systems.
At the end of last week, the International Security Forum published a regular annual report on upcoming trends in IT threats to business. Threat Horizon 2019. The report contains detailed descriptions of the nine major threats, as well as information on their impact on business and recommended actions.
I also added a translation of the results of last year’s report (2018). The information provided should help IT and risk managers, as well as business executives, become familiar with the increasing risks and evaluate the possible consequences.
')
Under the link you can download an excerpt from the report in English. Last year , before last year , and earlier excerpts are in the public domain. Those who want to familiarize themselves with the translation of the findings and recommendations from the reports of the last three years - please under the cat.
In the comments I propose to describe the relevance of the findings and recommendations for your organization.
It is impossible to read a newspaper or magazine that is not overflowing with stories about how much new technologies will have a strong impact on our life and work. It is also hard to miss stories about cyber attacks and hacking, while every day the “attackers” take possession of more opportunities and arrogance.
Business executives are faced with a harsh dilemma: is it worth rushing to introduce new technologies and risk large-scale consequences if something goes wrong; or wait and potentially lose positions to competitors? A well-informed organization about emerging technologies and related threats will have an advantageous position for making winning decisions.
Threat Horizon reports present nine major threats expected in the next two to three years as a result of changes in IT. Threats are outlined in three key themes that reflect the main consequences if they occur.
Earlier in Threat Horizon 2017 - 2018
2017
1.1 Ultra-high-speed compounds suppress defense.
1.2 Criminal syndicates make a quantum leap.
1.3 Groups, "rejecting" technologists, cause chaos.
2.1 Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous.
2.2 System vulnerabilities are used as a weapon.
2.3. Death of legacy systems.
2.4. Death from the failure of digital services.
3.1. Global consolidation threatens competition and security.
3.2. The sharp increase in the effects of hacking databases.
2018
Topic 1. The introduction of modern technology greatly expands the scope of threats.
1.1 IoT "merges" confidential information
Companies will enthusiastically introduce the Internet of Things, without realizing how often such devices are designed unsafely, providing ample opportunities for hackers.
Implement security processes for connecting the IoT to the network. Before implementation, evaluate what information will be available for collection and distribution, and for whom.
1.2 Opaque algorithms compromise integrity
Companies will increasingly use algorithms to improve efficiency. However, the lack of transparency in the interaction structure of such algorithms will pose a serious information security risk.
Identify points of contact with systems driven by algorithms, and understand when human intervention is needed. Identify alternative ways to handle risks from algorithmic incidents.
1.3 Recalcitrant governments use terrorists for cyber attacks
Such partnerships will evolve and include ongoing and destructive incidents leading to business interruptions and loss of confidence in existing security controls.
Adapt risk management processes to new actors. Explore the possibility of assisting in the exploration of threats with public and private entities.
Topic 2. Ability to protect compromised
2.1 Management expectations not achieved will lead to a serious incident.
The expectations of managers will grow beyond the limits of information security functionality. Such a discrepancy will be revealed as a result of a serious incident, provoking serious consequences for the business.
Involve management regularly, giving them a credible look at risks. Adjust managers' expectations for improved security features based on current and future opportunities.
2.2 Researchers silenced by vulnerabilities
While researchers reveal vulnerabilities, manufacturers threaten lawsuits. As a result, organizations will continue to use vulnerable software that carries risks.
Consider funding such research. Use intermediary services to share information.
2.3 Support in the form of cyber insurance disappears
Large hacks of databases will scare away many insurance companies from the cyber insurance market, which will violate the main way companies are shifting risks.
Reassess risk management strategies before a crisis. Explore cyber insurance policies for possible expensive exemptions.
Topic 3. Governments intensify intervention
3.1 Aggressive organizations provoke the government
Aggressive commercial strategies (owned by organizations that “undermine” their sector) will force politicians and regulators to pay attention to local consequences in the areas of commerce and security.
Avoid political opposition by understanding the local context in which your products and services are provided. Develop a strategy of political influence and involvement, focusing on a control system based on principles.
3.2 Legislation “Fragments” Cloud Storage Technologies
Changes in legislation will lead to new restrictions on the processing of personal data. This will delay the introduction of cloud services until the necessary changes are made.
Form an understanding of how laws will evolve in light of the growing demand for increased security of personal data. Be proactive and prepare for changes in regions where legislative moods are changing.
3.3 Criminal opportunities are increasing in the area of ​​international protection.
The technical capabilities of cyber criminals will exceed the capabilities of companies. The capabilities of current defenses are likely to decline, exposing organizations to greater impact.
Establish the necessary controls and systems to create threat intelligence capabilities. Proactively influence governments to collaborate and build effective legal schemes.
Threat Horizon 2019: Disruptions. Distortion. Wear.
Topic 1 - Breakdowns : over-reliance on a “fragile” bond.
Topic 2 - Distortion : as the loss of confidence in the integrity of information.
Topic 3 - Depreciation : when controls are “blurred” under the influence of legislation and technology.
The world in 2019 will depend entirely on technology and communications, and the organization must use every tool at its disposal to maintain leadership. Orientation in this world will require a strong culture of cooperation, and the right people able to get together at the right time to play their part in ensuring success.
Is a loud corporate failure coming? Will it be your company?
Topic 1 - Disruptions: over-reliance on a “fragile” bond
1.1 Deliberate Internet outages put trade on your knees
In conditions of fragmented international relations, the core of the Internet infrastructure will be the goal of states and terrorist groups in an effort to inflict widespread economic damage on their opponents.
You can no longer rely on existing business continuity plans. Interaction with internal and external stakeholders is required in order to reach agreement on alternative methods of communication (telex, satellite and high-frequency communications).
1.2 Malware for extortion affects Internet of Things
Ransomware viruses are already one of the most common ways to use the value of digital information companies for criminal purposes. It is expected the evolution of such software, aimed at smart devices, with the probability of risk to people's lives.
Interact with industry organizations to lobby and influence laws that provide minimum Internet of Things security standards.
1.3 Forcing privileged insiders to issue a “gold party”
Light targets, employees with access to key information will be subject to old-fashioned criminal methods of coercion.
Identify critical information assets and employees who own / have access to.
Topic 2 - Distortion: as the integrity of information is lost
2.1 Automated disinformation gains instant credibility
The practice of deliberately spreading misinformation, fueled by advances in artificial intelligence, will target commercial organizations.
Introduce scenarios covering the spread of misinformation into general incident response plans.
2.2. Falsified information compromises performance.
Attacks that threaten the integrity of an organization’s internal information will increase in number, scale and complexity.
Establish access monitoring and key information changes using access and content management systems (FIAM, CMS).
2.3 The use of blockchains for criminal purposes undermines trust
Using blockchains for fraud and money laundering will destroy the trust they rely on. This may entail the refusal to use a specific blockchain, along with losses in the efficiency of processes.
Appoint a manager and a committee to consult and make decisions regarding the implementation and use of the blockchain throughout the organization.
Topic 3 - Depreciation: when controls are “blurred” under the influence of legislation and technology.
3.1 Laws in the field of supervision and covert surveillance reveal corporate secrets
Companies will not be able to determine the security of data storage collected by communications providers. Attackers target this vulnerability.
Avoid political opposition by understanding the local context in which your products and services are provided. Develop a strategy of political influence and involvement, focusing on a control system based on principles.
3.2 Privacy rules hinder monitoring of internal threats.
Restrictions on individual profiling will put the puzzle in front of the organization: either to lose the ability to track the internal threat, or to challenge the regulatory acts. Both options will have negative consequences.
Get legal advice on profiling users for each jurisdiction in which the company operates.
3.3 The rapid roll on the deployment of AI leads to unexpected results.
The use of artificial intelligence will produce results that go beyond the understanding of business leaders, developers and system managers, creating new vulnerabilities.
Recruit, develop, and retain talents with management skills in AI systems.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/324922/
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