The worst technological forecasts for the last 150 years
There is a long tradition. For the new year, scientists, engineers, businessmen, and all who feel like it, are trying to predict the future. Is blockchain a serious technology, or another buzzword? Will bots kill mobile apps in 2017? Will this year's immersion in virtual reality cease to cause seasickness?
Telegraph kills live chat
Technologies are insidious, there is plenty of historical evidence. The forecasts made by the most educated people of their time, who had the most up-to-date, most up-to-date information, now often look simply terrifyingly inaccurate.
Especially vividly, even through the darkness of centuries, predictions shine, which demonstrate noticeable but incorrect judgments, misunderstandings of questions, overly optimistic exaggerations, self-deception, and the good old flaw that anyone just doesn’t betray - wishful thinking.
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Below, I have given the most incorrect predictions that show that even the giants of business and science do not always know what they are talking about. Here there are also judgments about technological progress, and about the possible perception by society of those or other inventions, and about the market potential of various ideas and developments. Now everyone understands how “past the target” these forecasts passed. But then - then these were words that had weight. That must be why we still remember them.
“ This“ phone ”has too many shortcomings to seriously consider it a means of communication. "
- William Orton, President of Western Union
“ Americans need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messengers. "
- Sir William Price, Chief Postman of England
“To mess with alternating current is a waste of time. No one will ever use it. "
- Thomas Edison
“The horse was, is and will be, but the car - only a new fleeting whim. "
- The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advises Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackam, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
“ The music box without wires has no commercial value. Who will pay to send a message that is not intended to a specific recipient? "
- Partners David Sarnoff, responding to his request for investment in radio.
“ While from a theoretical and technical point of view, television looks realistic, I do not believe in its commercial and financial success. "
- Lee de Forest, “Father of Radio”, a pioneer in the field of sound recording of films with sound recording on film, with more than 180 patents.
“ There is not the slightest reason to assume that nuclear energy can ever be obtained. This would mean that man learned to destroy atoms. "
- Albert Einstein
“A rocket can never leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” "
- "New York Times"
“ Television, after the appearance, will not be able to stay in any market for more than six months. People just get tired of looking into the plywood box every evening. "
- Darryl Zanuk, producer, one of the founders of 20th Century Fox.
“ ENIAC includes 18,000 vacuum tubes and all 30 tons. Computers of the future may well have only 1000 lamps and weigh a ton and a half. "
- "Popular Mechanics"
“ I traveled this country along and across, communicated with outstanding people, and I can absolutely unequivocally say that data processing is just a fad, the interest in which will not last even a year. "
- Editor of the business literature of the publishing house Prentice Hall
“The probable volume of the world market of copying machines is no more than 5000 pieces. "
- IBM's answer to the founders of Xerox
“ There is practically no chance of using communication satellites to provide better telephone and telegraph communications, to improve the transmission of a television or radio signal in the United States. "
- T. Craven, US Federal Communications Commission
“ There is no reason why anyone would want to have a computer at home. "
- Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.
“ No one will need more than 637 KB of RAM for a personal computer. 640 kb should be enough for everyone. "
- Bill Gates
“ Mobile phones are completely unable to replace conventional lines of communication. "
- Marty Cooper, inventor
“ We will never create a 32-bit operating system. "
- Bill Gates
“ The idea of ​​a personal communicator in every pocket is“ an impossible dream driven by greed. "
- Andrew Grove, co-founder of Intel
“ Here is my prediction: the Internet is like a supernova. First - a bright flash, and by 1996 - a black hole of general oblivion. "
- Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet.
“ Selling music by subscription is an idea, doomed to failure. I think even the second coming on the subscription will not succeed. "
- Steve Jobs in an interview with Rolling Stone.
“ There is no chance that the iPhone will get any significant market share. "
- Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO
But this ladies diamond, so to speak, under the curtain:
“ Everything that could be invented has already been invented. "
- This statement is attributed to Charles H. Dewell, Special Representative of the US Patent Office (1899)
This is what Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner in economics of 2008, noted in his 1998 article, brilliantly titled: "Why the predictions of most economists do not come true."
“The speed of the spread of the Internet will fall sharply, contrary to the law of Metcalf , who claims that the number of possible connections on the Web is proportional to the square of the number of its participants. After all, it becomes obvious that most people simply have nothing to say to each other! By about 2005, it will be clear that the Internet has no more impact on the economy than fax. ”
This is my favorite prediction, because as a result Krugman denied himself.
Making predictions is risky. Especially - if they are about the near future. As soon as it turns out that the prediction is wrong, the words, like a boomerang, return to the one who said them, and they are snapped up for quotes that always persecute their author.
And what unfulfilled predictions seem to be the most interesting to you?
Telegraph kills live chat
Technologies are insidious, there is plenty of historical evidence. The forecasts made by the most educated people of their time, who had the most up-to-date, most up-to-date information, now often look simply terrifyingly inaccurate.
Especially vividly, even through the darkness of centuries, predictions shine, which demonstrate noticeable but incorrect judgments, misunderstandings of questions, overly optimistic exaggerations, self-deception, and the good old flaw that anyone just doesn’t betray - wishful thinking.
')
Below, I have given the most incorrect predictions that show that even the giants of business and science do not always know what they are talking about. Here there are also judgments about technological progress, and about the possible perception by society of those or other inventions, and about the market potential of various ideas and developments. Now everyone understands how “past the target” these forecasts passed. But then - then these were words that had weight. That must be why we still remember them.
1876
“ This“ phone ”has too many shortcomings to seriously consider it a means of communication. "
- William Orton, President of Western Union
“ Americans need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messengers. "
- Sir William Price, Chief Postman of England
1889
“To mess with alternating current is a waste of time. No one will ever use it. "
- Thomas Edison
1903
“The horse was, is and will be, but the car - only a new fleeting whim. "
- The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advises Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackam, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
1921
“ The music box without wires has no commercial value. Who will pay to send a message that is not intended to a specific recipient? "
- Partners David Sarnoff, responding to his request for investment in radio.
1926
“ While from a theoretical and technical point of view, television looks realistic, I do not believe in its commercial and financial success. "
- Lee de Forest, “Father of Radio”, a pioneer in the field of sound recording of films with sound recording on film, with more than 180 patents.
1932
“ There is not the slightest reason to assume that nuclear energy can ever be obtained. This would mean that man learned to destroy atoms. "
- Albert Einstein
1936
“A rocket can never leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” "
- "New York Times"
1946
“ Television, after the appearance, will not be able to stay in any market for more than six months. People just get tired of looking into the plywood box every evening. "
- Darryl Zanuk, producer, one of the founders of 20th Century Fox.
1949
“ ENIAC includes 18,000 vacuum tubes and all 30 tons. Computers of the future may well have only 1000 lamps and weigh a ton and a half. "
- "Popular Mechanics"
1957
“ I traveled this country along and across, communicated with outstanding people, and I can absolutely unequivocally say that data processing is just a fad, the interest in which will not last even a year. "
- Editor of the business literature of the publishing house Prentice Hall
1959
“The probable volume of the world market of copying machines is no more than 5000 pieces. "
- IBM's answer to the founders of Xerox
1961
“ There is practically no chance of using communication satellites to provide better telephone and telegraph communications, to improve the transmission of a television or radio signal in the United States. "
- T. Craven, US Federal Communications Commission
1977
“ There is no reason why anyone would want to have a computer at home. "
- Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.
1981
“ No one will need more than 637 KB of RAM for a personal computer. 640 kb should be enough for everyone. "
- Bill Gates
“ Mobile phones are completely unable to replace conventional lines of communication. "
- Marty Cooper, inventor
1989
“ We will never create a 32-bit operating system. "
- Bill Gates
1992
“ The idea of ​​a personal communicator in every pocket is“ an impossible dream driven by greed. "
- Andrew Grove, co-founder of Intel
1995
“ Here is my prediction: the Internet is like a supernova. First - a bright flash, and by 1996 - a black hole of general oblivion. "
- Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet.
2003
“ Selling music by subscription is an idea, doomed to failure. I think even the second coming on the subscription will not succeed. "
- Steve Jobs in an interview with Rolling Stone.
2007
“ There is no chance that the iPhone will get any significant market share. "
- Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO
But this ladies diamond, so to speak, under the curtain:
“ Everything that could be invented has already been invented. "
- This statement is attributed to Charles H. Dewell, Special Representative of the US Patent Office (1899)
Conclusions: do not confuse trends with facts
This is what Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner in economics of 2008, noted in his 1998 article, brilliantly titled: "Why the predictions of most economists do not come true."
“The speed of the spread of the Internet will fall sharply, contrary to the law of Metcalf , who claims that the number of possible connections on the Web is proportional to the square of the number of its participants. After all, it becomes obvious that most people simply have nothing to say to each other! By about 2005, it will be clear that the Internet has no more impact on the economy than fax. ”
This is my favorite prediction, because as a result Krugman denied himself.
Making predictions is risky. Especially - if they are about the near future. As soon as it turns out that the prediction is wrong, the words, like a boomerang, return to the one who said them, and they are snapped up for quotes that always persecute their author.
And what unfulfilled predictions seem to be the most interesting to you?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/322138/
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