The system of decision making and risk management on the example of life
In this publication, I will give a practical example of using a decision-making and risk management system, but not in the enterprise, but in ordinary life. I used this approach personally and confirmed its efficiency. At least on a psychological level, since none of the described risks, unfortunately, did not work.
In the summer of 2016, my wife and I had a dispute about the place of the summer vacation. By that time, in the piggy bank “Vacation 2016” there were 120 thousand rubles. For two weeks of lying on the sun loungers this was enough, but the fact is that passive tourism does not attract us. The map of desires looked like this:
Last year's vacation options turned out to be the reference and combined flight, car rental and a route of 2-3 thousand km.
In the first case, another undeclared ruble helped (45 rubles / euro), in the second case - the purchase of a ticket for miles. This time there were no bonuses.
')
I have been to domestic resorts many times , but prices and the level of service did not have to be repeated. Nevertheless, with a limited budget, they represented one of the priority options. Total, option 1: Kislovodsk-Gelendzhik-Sochi (to combine the mountains and the sea).
Funds for the flight, car rental and accommodation for more than 21 days will exceed the allowable budget, so it was not possible to fly to Europe. The key word was "fly." But what if it is replaced by "go"?
When researching the issue, I found out that the nearest warm sea (not Black) outside of Russia is in Croatia. Having studied nature and sights, I stopped at the city of Zadar as the main place of rest, paved a route to it and back. Total, option 2: Moscow - Brest - Kosice (Slovakia) - Budapest (Hungary) - Zagreb, Zadar (Croatia) - Ljubljana (Slovenia) - Vienna (Austria) - Brest - Moscow.
For a foreign option, there is not much money left, so we choose part of the overnight stays in the car, and some in the cheapest hotels along the way. The cheapest are hotels with a rating above 8 points on booking with sorting to increase prices. In general, these are good private hotels, but not located in the center of the object of study (cities, sights). With a car, this is not even a discomfort.
Let us turn to the SWOT-analysis of options.
In two versions, I highlight the sides that are significant to me in bold.
Option "Gelendzhik"
Option "Zadar"
After a SWOT analysis, I come to the conclusion that the Zadar travel option is more attractive to me, but it contains more risks.
Such a description of the risks and the search for influences on them allows you to calm yourself and your loved ones with a reasoned answer. The most significant risks are serious damage to the car and the need for medical care. Both risks can happen both in Russia and abroad with the same probability and cost (I guess ). But in case of inflammation of appendicitis, it seems to me that I would choose a European clinic, if you cannot choose the option "non-inflammation of appendicitis."
I start to work out the risks for the final decision.
The presence of expensive medical insurance for 4800 rubles. (for two, but were available for 2000 rubles.), cash "emergency reserve", detailed inspection before the trip allowed to reduce the risks to a minimum. As you understood, to our happiness, the risks did not work.
You can be under the impression, for example, after viewing beautiful photos and go directly to the action. Infantilism of the solution is destructive. It is especially important to prevent premature actions in enterprises. Complicated decisions require detailed study, including with a group of persons (board of directors). Run a new 1C: ERP system or purchase new equipment? To carry out reenendering (reengineering) or optimization of business processes in the organization? Run a new organization site?
I made a decision during the week every day, making a mark of my decision, thereby eliminating the influence of mood.
My example is not so large-scale, but on it I demonstrate a working approach to decision making. In general, it looks like this:
Act! Get some rest!
Definitely there were difficulties and abnormal situations, but it is the exit from the comfort zone that gives the most vivid emotions that will be remembered for a lifetime. When I meet with friends, I also talk about Polish rescuers, Czech traffic cops, the cost of visiting Plitvice lakes and what the ham should look like.
Some will be interested in photos .
Wishes Card
In the summer of 2016, my wife and I had a dispute about the place of the summer vacation. By that time, in the piggy bank “Vacation 2016” there were 120 thousand rubles. For two weeks of lying on the sun loungers this was enough, but the fact is that passive tourism does not attract us. The map of desires looked like this:
- Duration over 21 days
- up to 120 thousand rubles. for two,
- maximum mobility on vacation (availability of a car and route)
Last year's vacation options turned out to be the reference and combined flight, car rental and a route of 2-3 thousand km.
In the first case, another undeclared ruble helped (45 rubles / euro), in the second case - the purchase of a ticket for miles. This time there were no bonuses.
')
Options
I have been to domestic resorts many times , but prices and the level of service did not have to be repeated. Nevertheless, with a limited budget, they represented one of the priority options. Total, option 1: Kislovodsk-Gelendzhik-Sochi (to combine the mountains and the sea).
Funds for the flight, car rental and accommodation for more than 21 days will exceed the allowable budget, so it was not possible to fly to Europe. The key word was "fly." But what if it is replaced by "go"?
When researching the issue, I found out that the nearest warm sea (not Black) outside of Russia is in Croatia. Having studied nature and sights, I stopped at the city of Zadar as the main place of rest, paved a route to it and back. Total, option 2: Moscow - Brest - Kosice (Slovakia) - Budapest (Hungary) - Zagreb, Zadar (Croatia) - Ljubljana (Slovenia) - Vienna (Austria) - Brest - Moscow.
General characteristics of the options
| Options | Gelendzhik | "Zadar" |
| Distance “round trip”, km | 4200 | 5500 |
| Route | Moscow - Kislovodsk - Gelendzhik - Sochi | Moscow - Brest - Koschitse (sk) - Budapest - Zagreb - Zadar - Ljubljana - Vienna - Moscow |
| Planned travel expenses for the service viamichelin.com, euro | 380 | 600 |
| The cost of the main hotel for 10 nights at the destination, rub. | 25,000 | 35600 (475 euros) |
| Hotel address in booking | www.booking.com/hotel/ru/sosnovaya-dacha-guest-house.ru.html | https://www.booking.com/hotel/hr/apartment-hana-zadar.ru.html |
| The cost of a visa, medical and car insurance. | 17600 | |
| Direct expenses on transport, visas and hotel, rub (euro 75 rate) | 53500 | 98200 |
For a foreign option, there is not much money left, so we choose part of the overnight stays in the car, and some in the cheapest hotels along the way. The cheapest are hotels with a rating above 8 points on booking with sorting to increase prices. In general, these are good private hotels, but not located in the center of the object of study (cities, sights). With a car, this is not even a discomfort.
Let us turn to the SWOT-analysis of options.
SWOT analysis
In two versions, I highlight the sides that are significant to me in bold.
Option "Gelendzhik"
Strengths
| Weak sides
|
Opportunities
| Risks
|
Option "Zadar"
Strengths
| Weak sides
|
Opportunities
| Risks
|
After a SWOT analysis, I come to the conclusion that the Zadar travel option is more attractive to me, but it contains more risks.
Such a description of the risks and the search for influences on them allows you to calm yourself and your loved ones with a reasoned answer. The most significant risks are serious damage to the car and the need for medical care. Both risks can happen both in Russia and abroad with the same probability and cost (I guess ). But in case of inflammation of appendicitis, it seems to me that I would choose a European clinic, if you cannot choose the option "non-inflammation of appendicitis."
I start to work out the risks for the final decision.
Risk map
Risk | Risk probability | Impact of risk (on time, on costs) | Way to minimize the risk |
| Expensive evacuation of your own car in case of an accident or breakdown (up to 2500 km) | Low | High , High | Remove the rooms and sell debris in case of exceeding the cost of evacuating the cost of repairs. To conserve and come again from Russia or Belarus with your “tractor” (another passenger car or tow truck) Availability of “emergency reserve” funds for 2 air tickets to Moscow. |
| Difficulties of communicating with the automaster in the event of a car breakdown and, as a result, a “divorce” for the required repair | Low | Average, Average | To study Russian-language auto services on the Internet before and during the trip. |
| Uneven budget spending due to different currencies (forint, kuna, zloty, krona, euro) (in the first days of restaurants, and then yogurt bread is possible) | High | Low, Medium | Disband the entire original budget (in euros) by separate envelopes: Gasoline, Toll roads, Hotel Hanna, Hotel 2, 3… |
| Costly treatment or failure of the insurer to pay for the insured event | Low | Low, High | Choose an insurance company with a high reputation with maximum coverage of services. |
| Legal risk in case of an accident (the complexity of the proof of innocence) | Low | Average, Average | Exposure and maximum study of the details, including foreign words in the design. |
| Road fines | Average | Low, Medium | The presence of an envelope with additional costs |
The presence of expensive medical insurance for 4800 rubles. (for two, but were available for 2000 rubles.), cash "emergency reserve", detailed inspection before the trip allowed to reduce the risks to a minimum. As you understood, to our happiness, the risks did not work.
Making decisions
You can be under the impression, for example, after viewing beautiful photos and go directly to the action. Infantilism of the solution is destructive. It is especially important to prevent premature actions in enterprises. Complicated decisions require detailed study, including with a group of persons (board of directors). Run a new 1C: ERP system or purchase new equipment? To carry out reenendering (reengineering) or optimization of business processes in the organization? Run a new organization site?
I made a decision during the week every day, making a mark of my decision, thereby eliminating the influence of mood.
Conclusion
My example is not so large-scale, but on it I demonstrate a working approach to decision making. In general, it looks like this:
- Get technical requirements
- Examine available options
- Describe the risks and opportunities to influence them.
- Decide on seasonal fluctuations and moods
Act! Get some rest!
PS
Definitely there were difficulties and abnormal situations, but it is the exit from the comfort zone that gives the most vivid emotions that will be remembered for a lifetime. When I meet with friends, I also talk about Polish rescuers, Czech traffic cops, the cost of visiting Plitvice lakes and what the ham should look like.
Some will be interested in photos .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/320600/
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