December. New Years is soon. Light frost. It's getting dark. In the Moscow office vanity vanity. Not New Year's Eve merry. Terrible. Someone explains to the persistent disgruntled customer that the office is temporarily not working, and asks to apply on Monday. Ran one of the many managers with a system unit under his arm. Behind him is another - an accountant with an office chair. Both are dressed, heading for the exit. Got a "salary." At the exit they run into the former Gender, as his Maxim ... and, incidentally, it does not matter. Maxim looks at this disgrace and immediately understands - everything. He is still walking around the office, looking into his former office in the hope of finding some positive, but is returning home even without “some”. Opens Facebook and writes: “Everything ...”.
Familiar? Only speech about December 2017th. Or 2020 Irrelevant. And this is not
Wikimart .
Photo from atner.livejournal.com. Wikimart. Team building is no longer needed. Mustache needed to calculate with creditorsThere is such a theory. Mentioned in the title. She was published in the securities market. And it says that when trading securities, their quality can be ignored, because there is always a "fool" stupid than you, and will buy these securities, and with the same purpose - sell "a fool to more."
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And here is Wikimart?
And. The company was founded in 2008 by two Stanford students, Maxim Faldin and Kamil Kurmakaev. In one of the interviews, Faldin said that he built a company on an investment model, i.e. for the development of the company was supposed to have investors in the future.
The essence of any investment model:
- Simple attractive idea
- Good EBITDA
- Minimal long-term risks
- Diversification
In short, the essence is to create attractiveness, to stimulate the desire to invest in the company. Quite easily, Wikimart has achieved this. Already in 2009, with a turnover of $ 99,000, the company was joined by a large investment fund Tiger Global Management, with which Wikimart rose to the heights of Russian e-commerce tops (13th place in 2011 and 23rd in 2014). In 2012, the size of investments reached $ 30 million (with a turnover of $ 110 million), and a mysterious Russian investor appeared who can only be speculated about. And finally, the apogee is $ 40 million from Finprombank in 2014 (turnover of $ 250 million). By the way, Finprombank disappeared from the face of the Russian banking system in September 2016. At that time, it was worth putting an end to Wikimart.
Photo from Sib. Wikimart fell from there.The problem of the investment model lies in several things.
Firstly, the
investments remove the founders of companies from management. No matter how long the founder remains formally at the helm, but the company’s spirit disappears, the invested funds begin to play the main role, and the people who invest them don’t know about any spirit, but require only returns from the investments and seek to control everything.
Secondly, investments are harmful, as any “easy” money. Comes relaxation, hope that everything now can not be solved at the expense of huge infusions. Investments deprive the company of natural development. Artificial revolutions always hit hard.
Thirdly, investments
carry professional
top managers into the company, most of whom are taught only to master the budget well, creating an attractive look in numbers and indicators. The difference of this look from the original attractiveness of the same Wikimart is that under the wrapper there is no sensible content anymore.
Fourthly, based on the first three problems, it is safe to say that
investment requires large investments . And the critical point sooner or later comes.
And fifth,
investment undermines healthy competition. If, for example, a regional retailer is building its network. I am satisfied with the revenue, does not need investments, lives, as they say, within their means, gradually expanding. But a big player comes to the region with an investment needle, and the regional retailer, of course, does not maintain competition. There is a takeover or bankruptcy. Depending on the interests of investors, the giant retailer. That is, small and medium businesses are definitely suffering from the investment model.
In the case of Wikimart, the problems of Finprombank against the background of the precarious position of the entire Russian banking system became a critical point. Despite the fact that the resale of a controlling stake came out spontaneously, it was largely associated with the imposed sanctions against foreign funds, such as the TGM, that is, the fund did not intend to get rid of its assets, it did so. But in the end, Finprombank turned out to be a big fool. And the fund itself deceived itself three times, pouring in additional investments, imitating development and hoping for profit. If it had not been for Finprombank, Tiger Global Management would have remained extreme.
Make a reservation about the fool - in any case, we do not throw curses. And in this article the fool is deprived of any emotional coloring by us and is only an element of the theory. Which can be easily replaced by, say, a “short-sighted investor”, but then the “theory of a large short-sighted investor” will be very deafening.
Cases of resale of assets of companies in recent times have become very frequent. The investment model and the theory of the big fools are rapidly developing both in online and in offline retail. Take any grocery retailer, whether it is the top giants X5 or Magnet, or regional monsters like Novosibirsk Holdy, or Kemerovo Chibis. The latter, by the way, became bankrupt in 2016, losing the competition, including the company Holiday, with investments from leading Russian oligarchs Mamut and Vekselberg. And by the end of December 2016 at the very “Holiday” appeared the first
lawsuit on bankruptcy. Is this the first call or an annoying accident? Only tendencies are known ...
But back to the representatives of e-commerce, or rather multichannel. The investment model can take the form of a combination of assets of several companies. But the essence does not change.
The irony of “Technosila”
In 2009, with a consistently increasing turnover, the third largest network of household appliances and electronics “Technosila” (after the ubiquitous “Eldorado” and “M-Video”) was sold to MDM Bank, who took to pay its debts. For two years, the debts increased again, and in 2011 the court declared the retailer bankrupt. But Tekhnosila did not sink into the summer, but was acquired by Dauria, which took a year to pay off the next debt, after which it was sold to Mikhail Kokorich. Through simple manipulations, in the end, “Technosila” was completely in the hands of the “Safmar” group (the owners are the Gutserievs - Shishkhanovs). In this case, it was already absorbed by “Technoshock” and E-96.
Finally, the climax, which is the largest M & A deal of the year, came again exactly by the end of 2016. Tekhnosila, which is invariably catching up, has acquired, in 4 days of mid-December, both fantastic Eldorado and M-Video for fantastic billions of money. At the same time, the Technosila brand itself will most likely disappear. Only the resounding “Eldorado” will remain. Something like a wedding of a princess rising from the ashes with the change of her last name and the impersonal status of the future family.
Photos from the site lenta.ru. Mikhail Gutseriev conjures over Internet retailBut still the fairy tale of 2016 comes out with a happy sequel. However, the world does not know the true state of affairs. Retailers love to show off only turnover and inflated profits. And behind the scenes, there must be a lot of outstanding loans and other debts that can be handled cleverly, closing gaps with Safmar investments. It will continue until the interest of the oligarchs disappears. And then - the next “big fool”, whose name we will surely and, perhaps, soon find out. That's because we love to build a business quickly and not for centuries.
What do Exxist have in common with Yulmart?
When the owner of an online store selling auto parts Exist.ru to Vladislav Domoratsky, his co-owners offered to buy their share for $ 25 million, he considered the price too high, and in general was not ready to part with partners. Offered $ 10 million. Refused. The problem is that the company is legally divided in two: Exist-M and A + A Exist Info. The first is owned by Domoratsky, the second by his partners Yuri Bukovnikov, Yuri Polyakov and Valery Chikin. After refusing to buy A + A Exist Info, the relationship between the co-owners deteriorated. Civil strife began: the presentation of claims, winding up payment for additional services rendered, etc. Then Bukovnikov and the company made the same offer to sell the investment group of Alpha groups. Which is just interested in such "special offers". When buying controversial stock shares at a discount, they sell at market value. After Domoratsky became aware of the participation of Alfa groups, he made an unexpected move - offering them his share, which he also valued at $ 10 million.
Photos from the site forbes.ru. Vladislav Domoratsky. All by himself, with his own hands.As a result, the original, not like the others, until 2016, its unknown online store behind its backstage, in 2014, recognized as the largest in the online retail with revenue of 35 billion rubles. Who achieved what he achieved, without any third-party investments at all. Now bursting at the seams. Moreover, it is cracking up in an attempt to consolidate its own assets. It is not yet known how the dispute will end, but judging by the actions of Domoratsky, his own growing business is more precious to him without personal participation than a blanket torn by everyone that is falling apart into separate pieces. In any case, Exists enters the investment path.
Alpha groups - sophisticated player in such confrontations. As a rule, the strategy is to bring the disputed company into bankruptcy with a subsequent redistribution of shares (for example, in a similar way Alpha groups came with the owners of the Baltic Bank, Andrey Isaev and Oleg Shigaev, when they began to divide the bank). An example of the not very successful, but not yet completed, participation of Alfa groups in the carve-up, is Yulmart.
For the company itself, by the way, in 2015, ahead of the TOP-100 Internet retailers rating, the same Exist, the year 2016, ends pitifully. If nothing is known about the debts of the auto retailer, then in relation to Yulmart there is a whole pile of claims in arbitration courts. Not the last role in their appearance was played by the participation of Alpha groups. And the opposition of co-owners Mikhail Vasinkevich and Dmitry Kostygin played a minor role in the appearance of Alfa groups in Yulmart. Difficult manipulations in the purchase and sale and assignment of rights of claim for debts led to the fact that Yulmart was left without control. Now the main shareholder of the company, Dmitry Kostigin, on the one hand, and another shareholder, Mikhail Vasinkevich, and Alfa Group, on the other, are leading the company to bankruptcy. A lawsuit on the introduction of this procedure was initiated by Kostygin, through an intermediary in the person of the Baltic electronic platform, after Alfa groups blocked a number of key decisions on the board of directors. And this step will help Kostygin, in the event of Yulmart being declared bankrupt, to be the first in the line of creditors, which means, according to the rules, to appoint his arbitration trustee. That increases its chances of further sole disposition of the company's assets.
Photo from vedomosti.ru. Alpha groups are dreaming about capturing the worldIt should be clarified that Dmitry Kostigin is a man in Yulmart in between. The founder of the network is Alexey Nikitin, who created Yulmart from the ruined network of computer stores Ultra Electronics. After the foundation, Nikitin attracted Vasinkevich to the company, who called the former owners of Lenta food stores Kostygin and August Meyer. Having invested Yulmart for $ 200 million, Kostygin also became the main shareholder, but an alien man, according to Vasinkevich, ineffective, spending the company's income not on repaying multiple loans, but on personal projects. According to Kostygin, Ylmarth last year did not count 10 billion rubles in revenue precisely because of a destabilizing litigation with minority owners led by Vasinkevich.
Photos from the site 1prime.ru. Dmitry Kostygin plays chess by YulmartIn general, Yulmart is another example of the harmfulness of investment from outside. On the one hand, a lightning-fast increase in company revenues, large-scale expansion, on the other, huge debts and power struggles.
The greatest
If the big fool does not have time to get rid of depreciating assets, it is called the greatest.The investment model is functioning, but not working. To the extent that is assumed. Net returns on investment are rarely seen when looking at leading Internet companies.
If you look at the top twenty of the largest online stores by the end of 2015, it turns out that only a quarter of them never attracted third-party investments and were not united with anyone for the sake of survival or increasing profits. Counting only on his own strength. Among such self-educated people, in addition to Eksist, are the WildBerries clothing store, the Komus office products network, the DNS computer network and the Petrovich online building materials network. But even in this top five there are doubts, because not all companies tend to advertise with their financial flows. For example, take a clothing store WildBerries - one of the most closed companies of the Runet. Analysts at Fast Lane Ventures, for example, are aware of closed investments from non-public holdings made to this company.
The remaining companies from this G20 either attracted investments (Yulmart, Ozone, Citylink, Svyaznoy, KupiVip, Refrigerator), or generally represented only another investment product of some empire (many projects of Otto-groups, for example, or the Platypus Mordashev) or due to consolidation, the G20 has been reduced to 18 pieces (Eldorado, Technosila and M-Video already sounding).
What does the investment model company strive for? Take, for example, a group of Otto or Ozone. Or any offline retailer. The primary goal is to increase turnover, expand the network, increase revenue. At the same time there is no talk about profit. With ultra-fast expansion, everyone eats up the cost of this expansion. Increasing turnover - of course, requires constant additional infusions.
Is such unrestrained constant growth harmful? Of course, if the retailer pursues a secondary indicator of turnover or revenue, without thinking about what needs to be optimized in order to increase the main indicator - profit. In the end, the investor of this retailer is stupid. If it is not possible to sell assets on time, as in the case of Wikimart, or in the near future with Yulmart, the greater fool becomes the greatest. But he is not alone. After all, the consumer, for whose money everything is being done, also remains a fool, he has nowhere to go with his money. But even worse, the Russian economy as a whole suffers. Constant swelling of bubbles occurs now on an unprecedented mass scale. And tons of investments and credits go to bloat - neither they nor others will return when the bubble collapses. And whether the Russian economy will be pulled into another financial recovery is another controversial issue.
In China, there are entire cities that were built for the future, without thinking about the solvency of the population, and which now look worse than Chernobyl - after all, they are new, bright, brilliant. But empty. How do you find the same emptiness, but in Russian hypermarkets, logistics centers and online retail as a whole?
Photos from the site libo.ru. Chinese PripyatAnd in the end, the wisdom from Tony Neck, already quoted not only by
us , but also used by
major Internet entrepreneurs: "If you have the opportunity to develop without funds, do it to the last." Do it. Experience Wikimart, Yulmart, Exist and others to help you.
UPD: Less than a week since the publication of the article, as soon as two news with the letter “E” disturbed the rest of the Internet retail. First, unfairly forgotten Enter, we nevertheless
entered the path of bankruptcy, although six months ago, by some miracle, it convinced creditors of its profitability and postponed the repayment of 6 billion rubles of debt (now more than 11 billion). The most remarkable thing is that the store is still working, accepting orders and payment for them, followed by complaints about non-fulfillment of orders.
And the second news, seemingly expected, but caught aback: Exist actually
passed into the hands of Alpha groups. Domoratsky aside. Formally consolidated power in the largest auto parts retailer Yuri Bukovnikov - previously a minority owner. The year 2017 for e-commerce promises to be interesting. The plot, in any case, was a success. We wait.