Hi Habr! We would like to receive feedback from readers of the Fujitsu blog, so we want to bring to your attention posts in a new format. We called this category of publications “Discuss?”, In them we plan to publish the statements of independent experts on topical issues and wait for your opinion in the comments to the post and to the poll / vote. Today we will talk about whether Gartner’s predictions about the saturation of the virtualization market are correct.

Not so long ago
, Gartner published data indicating that sales of new licenses for virtualization software have declined for the first time in ten years (that is, since the market has become massive). So, with VMware, which holds the first place in this market, sales of vSphere licenses for the year decreased by 10%. This topic is important for Fujitsu, as well as for any other major server hardware manufacturer, because it is no secret that now in many cases the words “server” and “virtualization” are inextricably linked. And among the products of Fujitsu is, for example,
PRIMEFLEX vShape , designed for the fastest and most reliable implementation of virtualization in the enterprise. So, does the market really “hit the ceiling” or is it a temporary recession?
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We appealed to one of the visitors of the
Fujitsu World Tour 2016 (by the way, it was cool there!) With a request to comment on the situation:
“Yes, I think that this year a peak will be reached in terms of sales of virtualization software. But the use of virtualization will remain at about the same level or even grow. I see three factors that affect the decline in license sales. First of all, I know several companies that have purchased “in reserve” quite a lot of virtual computing power, which will be enough for them for several years. (I admit that this situation is not such a rarity). Secondly, the increased attention to free and "budget" solutions, which in many respects in terms of functionality have "grown" to their use in serious projects. And the third factor is the transfer of focus to the containers and internal / external IaaS. By the way, just now we discussed Fujitsu Cloud IaaS - a very interesting thing, because some analytical agencies make bold predictions that by 2016, 80% of large enterprises around the world will rent infrastructure using the IaaS model.Personally, I assumed that the market would reach a peak a little earlier - simply because it was growing at a tremendous pace. About 6 years ago I expected saturation by the end of 2014 - the beginning of 2015. If you now look at Gartner's "virtualization quadrants", then you can see from them - the leaders got close, and niche players are treading water - this is a clear sign of market maturity. I do not know the exact figures, but it is possible that the revenue from the sale of virtualization has remained at about the same level in the last couple of years (It is basic virtualization, and not additional “buns”). In any case, large companies have been actively using virtualization for a long time, so this niche is precisely saturated, the medium and small business will most likely buy, but they have little money. However, all this, in my opinion, will in no way affect the sales of servers and infrastructure iron. ”An interesting detail in the published
“Magic Quadrant for x86 Server Virtualization Infrastructure 2016” Gartner writes that the percentage of virtualized x86 architecture servers reached 80%, and in 2014 this figure was 70%. How many of these 20% will be virtualized, in your opinion? Do you agree with the opinion cited above? Write in the comments.