So when does email die?
Email history began in 1972, when Ray Tomlinson suggested using the “at sign” (@) symbol to denote messages that need to be transferred from one computer to another.
Free communication with users anywhere in the world, ease of use and time saving, the ability to share files - all these benefits help email to remain one of the most popular means of communication for the past 44 years.
But lately, more and more information has appeared that the days of email are numbered. In their study , Radicati specialists showed a tendency to a decrease in the number of sent personal letters. This is due primarily to the proliferation of social networks and the emergence of instant messengers, which are also called "killers" of email.
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/ Photo TechStage / CC
The article , published in the magazine Fast Company, shows the graphs according to which this decline began after 2008 and has continued since. If we assume that the curve reached its peak in the middle of the email’s lifetime (and this peak was in 2008), then personal use of mail will cease by approximately 2044.
Perhaps by the time users will use email only for business correspondence. Do not forget about the age factor of e-mail users, a significant portion of which today are over 30 years old. So, after about 50 years, when most of them will not, sending email will naturally stop.
However, in reality, the use of e-mail is still an integral part of our communication, and in the near future, alternative tools will not be able to push it out. According to the results of the same study by Radicati, by the end of 2017, the total number of email accounts will exceed 4.9 billion, which is 1 billion more than in 2013.
In addition, the authors predict that the number of business emails sent daily will increase by 7-8%, and the number of accounts created for business correspondence - by 23-24%.
In general, the volume of electronic correspondence will increase by 3%, due to several reasons:
Users will not want to switch to a new communication system if, in general, e-mail suits them. Yes, we all complain about overflowing mailboxes and spam, but bots and instant messaging services will not replace email until they become more common and easy to use.
Today we have a huge number of tools for the effective management of electronic mailings. For example, the Priority Inbox service from Gmail automatically sorts letters into categories, and Unroll.me allows you to combine news feeds and ads into a general list, as well as unsubscribe from unnecessary mailings.
Thanks to the improvement of filtering systems, spam, which was filled up with our boxes, has ceased to be a problem, while social networks are replete with intrusive advertising. According to the Harvard Business Review statistics, each user receives 11,680 emails per year. At the same time, 74% of them belong to unwanted correspondence, which users do not even notice, since these letters are immediately sent to spam.
Of course, it is sometimes much easier to give a short answer in the messenger or make a comment on social networks, but when it comes to more serious issues that require thinking time, we still prefer email.
Despite the fact that social networks are recognized as "killers" of e-mail, a study of the American company Nielsen showed that in reality they contribute to its wider use.
Currently, most social networks and services offer registration via email. If you forget the password of your account, you can restore access again using email (on this chart, Nielsen shows that active users of social networks work more with email).
The creators of the new services claim that their technology is significantly superior to e-mail. For example, the advantage of Slack is the ability to reduce the volume of electronic correspondence. This service is great for work in small businesses and start-ups.
However, despite the fact that Slack sends push-notifications about the activity in the project, if the user is offline, notifications and personal messages come in an email. Many other services have a similar work algorithm (not to mention the registration by e-mail address).
There is a certain risk associated with communication tools that support relatively small development teams: if Slack or Telegram leaves the market tomorrow, what will happen to the data stored there? Most likely, they will be lost.
Open e-mail standards, such as SMTP, as well as the reliability and long-term presence of the services on the market, guarantee that email will be a safe communication option for many years.
E-mail has properties that other modern communication technologies cannot boast: it is a reliable and affordable tool on various devices.
Unlike most new services, email is an open system: you can easily send a message from an email address in Gmail to a friend who uses AOL. And if you decide to create a new account in the e-mail, you will have the opportunity to transfer all the correspondence from the old mailbox to the new one.
Additional materials on the topic in the blog Pechkin-mail'a:
Free communication with users anywhere in the world, ease of use and time saving, the ability to share files - all these benefits help email to remain one of the most popular means of communication for the past 44 years.
But lately, more and more information has appeared that the days of email are numbered. In their study , Radicati specialists showed a tendency to a decrease in the number of sent personal letters. This is due primarily to the proliferation of social networks and the emergence of instant messengers, which are also called "killers" of email.
')
/ Photo TechStage / CC
The article , published in the magazine Fast Company, shows the graphs according to which this decline began after 2008 and has continued since. If we assume that the curve reached its peak in the middle of the email’s lifetime (and this peak was in 2008), then personal use of mail will cease by approximately 2044.
Perhaps by the time users will use email only for business correspondence. Do not forget about the age factor of e-mail users, a significant portion of which today are over 30 years old. So, after about 50 years, when most of them will not, sending email will naturally stop.
However, in reality, the use of e-mail is still an integral part of our communication, and in the near future, alternative tools will not be able to push it out. According to the results of the same study by Radicati, by the end of 2017, the total number of email accounts will exceed 4.9 billion, which is 1 billion more than in 2013.
In addition, the authors predict that the number of business emails sent daily will increase by 7-8%, and the number of accounts created for business correspondence - by 23-24%.
In general, the volume of electronic correspondence will increase by 3%, due to several reasons:
Changing user habits is not easy
Users will not want to switch to a new communication system if, in general, e-mail suits them. Yes, we all complain about overflowing mailboxes and spam, but bots and instant messaging services will not replace email until they become more common and easy to use.
“When conducting a user experience survey for Betterteam (staff recruitment platform for small businesses), it quickly became clear that our recruiters prefer to use their email, rather than our special system, to approve or reject candidates.
We had to integrate this program with email. Now our clients can reject the candidate by clicking on the button in the letter so as not to enter our system, ”says Adter Seabrook, co-founder of Betterteam.
Email is not in place
Today we have a huge number of tools for the effective management of electronic mailings. For example, the Priority Inbox service from Gmail automatically sorts letters into categories, and Unroll.me allows you to combine news feeds and ads into a general list, as well as unsubscribe from unnecessary mailings.
Thanks to the improvement of filtering systems, spam, which was filled up with our boxes, has ceased to be a problem, while social networks are replete with intrusive advertising. According to the Harvard Business Review statistics, each user receives 11,680 emails per year. At the same time, 74% of them belong to unwanted correspondence, which users do not even notice, since these letters are immediately sent to spam.
Asynchronous communication is very important.
Of course, it is sometimes much easier to give a short answer in the messenger or make a comment on social networks, but when it comes to more serious issues that require thinking time, we still prefer email.
“E-mail is beautiful because the communication in it is asynchronous. When you receive an email, no one expects you to reply at the same second. You can take a day to think, think about the message and give a balanced answer. If the email was sent simply to transmit information, you may not respond at all.
Synchronous communication in writing (sms, chats, etc.) takes place, but only if the real-time mode is fundamentally important ... but in most cases this is not the case, ”says SafeGraph’s director Oure Hoffman
Email killers depend on her
Despite the fact that social networks are recognized as "killers" of e-mail, a study of the American company Nielsen showed that in reality they contribute to its wider use.
Currently, most social networks and services offer registration via email. If you forget the password of your account, you can restore access again using email (on this chart, Nielsen shows that active users of social networks work more with email).
The creators of the new services claim that their technology is significantly superior to e-mail. For example, the advantage of Slack is the ability to reduce the volume of electronic correspondence. This service is great for work in small businesses and start-ups.
However, despite the fact that Slack sends push-notifications about the activity in the project, if the user is offline, notifications and personal messages come in an email. Many other services have a similar work algorithm (not to mention the registration by e-mail address).
E-mail is a common standard of communication.
There is a certain risk associated with communication tools that support relatively small development teams: if Slack or Telegram leaves the market tomorrow, what will happen to the data stored there? Most likely, they will be lost.
Open e-mail standards, such as SMTP, as well as the reliability and long-term presence of the services on the market, guarantee that email will be a safe communication option for many years.
“She [email] will not die in the foreseeable future. Some technologies will make it even more useful, but definitely will not replace it. What is the reason for this? Email is not regulated by one particular company. It is governed by protocols, ”explains Kun Chen , a leading Microsoft engineer in the past.
E-mail has properties that other modern communication technologies cannot boast: it is a reliable and affordable tool on various devices.
Unlike most new services, email is an open system: you can easily send a message from an email address in Gmail to a friend who uses AOL. And if you decide to create a new account in the e-mail, you will have the opportunity to transfer all the correspondence from the old mailbox to the new one.
Additional materials on the topic in the blog Pechkin-mail'a:
- Pechkin-mail "digest": Podcasts on content marketing and interface design
- Literary Digest: 35 books on interface design and content marketing
- Pechkin-mail "wiki": Checklist for email newsletters
- How-to: interactive writing guide
- Interfaces and usability: Who designs UX and how
- "Let's talk about it": The work of the designer
- Email Marketing: Recipe for Correct Plain-Text Letters
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/315834/
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