User research. Lyrical digression. Incorrect interpretation of data.
Here is a wonderful and illustrative example of how one can easily misinterpret the data obtained from user research. This is also a clear example of why we should always be especially careful when we meet with statistics.
On my favorite marketing blog, FutureLab , there was a short article entitled “The study showed that fears about pedophiles in MySpace are exaggerated. "
The study ( PDF ) referenced by this note draws the following conclusions:
First, the fact that teenagers or their parents think about the problem coverage in the press has nothing to do with the real subject of the research. This is just a red herring. Press coverage has nothing to do with whether or not the pedophiles on the site pose a real threat.
Secondly, according to statistics, 7% of adolescents surveyed admitted that someone had sexual appeal to them. In fact, this is a very large number in this context. If you just read the article title and skip the main text, you will not notice it. If you read the number 7% and do not think, then you will not notice anything again. But 7% is a very large number!
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Thirdly, the study claims that almost all adolescents who are confronted with sexual intent were able to successfully ignore or block those who pester. What does “almost everything” mean? If “almost all” means 99 out of 100, then it turns out that 0.07% of teenagers on MySpace encountered the activity of pedophiles who were so aggressive that they could not be ignored or blocked. If we take the total number of teenagers on MySpace, equal, for example, to 10 million (which in my opinion is a rather low estimate), then this leads us to 7 thousand cases of aggressive sexual behavior. And this is a lot of serious accidents!
Finally, on the last page of the study it is written that, in fact, the author is currently engaged in writing a book about MySpace with the goal of:
On my favorite marketing blog, FutureLab , there was a short article entitled “The study showed that fears about pedophiles in MySpace are exaggerated. "
The study ( PDF ) referenced by this note draws the following conclusions:
- Only 7% of adolescents surveyed admitted that they had addressed someone with sexual intentions. In this case, almost all of the adolescents simply ignored the molesters and blocked them from accessing their personal page;
- Two thirds of parents believe that many pedophiles are registered on MySpace, while only one out of three teenagers share their fears;
- 66% of parents believe that coverage of this danger in the press is either insufficient or close to the description of the real state;
- Teenagers showed mirror opposite results. 58% of them believe that the problem is artificially inflated in the press.
First, the fact that teenagers or their parents think about the problem coverage in the press has nothing to do with the real subject of the research. This is just a red herring. Press coverage has nothing to do with whether or not the pedophiles on the site pose a real threat.
Secondly, according to statistics, 7% of adolescents surveyed admitted that someone had sexual appeal to them. In fact, this is a very large number in this context. If you just read the article title and skip the main text, you will not notice it. If you read the number 7% and do not think, then you will not notice anything again. But 7% is a very large number!
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Thirdly, the study claims that almost all adolescents who are confronted with sexual intent were able to successfully ignore or block those who pester. What does “almost everything” mean? If “almost all” means 99 out of 100, then it turns out that 0.07% of teenagers on MySpace encountered the activity of pedophiles who were so aggressive that they could not be ignored or blocked. If we take the total number of teenagers on MySpace, equal, for example, to 10 million (which in my opinion is a rather low estimate), then this leads us to 7 thousand cases of aggressive sexual behavior. And this is a lot of serious accidents!
Finally, on the last page of the study it is written that, in fact, the author is currently engaged in writing a book about MySpace with the goal of:
“Provide the reader with an impartial look at the merits and potential dangers of MySpace. Advise parents how to combine the safety of their children with the benefits of using virtual space. ”Perhaps the author’s final conclusion — MySpace is absolutely safe — is fair. I would also completely agree with this. Here are just numbers to the contrary. Be carefull!
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/31344/
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